As I get stuck in to writing this the sun is setting on what’s been a Dublin Racing Festival filled with thrills, spills, big performances and big flops. From the highs of El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle to the low of Honeysuckle going down to State Man in Irish Champion Hurdle, we had it all! Record breaking crowds gathered from far and wide even a huge following from across the Irish Sea came to hail our equine stars! There was an atmosphere like was never witnessed on an Irish track before! The roar of the crowd the electricity in the air it was magic and the racing didnt disappoint either. But what’s more is we get to experience all that and more again in a few weeks time as people flock in their droves, this time to the Cotswolds, to our Mecca, our Colloseum, the great oval Valhalla the home of jumps racing the Cheltenham Festival!

We are still 5 weeks out from the Festival but what an occasion it’s setting up to be! This is the first time in a good few years where we aren’t looking at a stack of short priced “good things” taking up huge portions of the market. That for one is a huge positive for me! While we all like to see equine brilliance we don’t want to see a couple of races a day with long odds on shots going around on the bridle at unbackable prices for the ordinary punter! You might be looking forward to backing Facile Vega at 7/2 in a bid for redemption having been stuffed at the Dublin Racing Festival fully convinced he has the engine to be odds on! Maybe you are looking forward to round two of a saga that started at Aintree last year between El Fabiolo and Jonbon. It could be your looking forward to seeing Constitution Hill attempt to put in another freakish festival performance or you could be in the State Man camp to try sink the English banker. Or maybe just maybe your dreaming of a poignant fairytale ending to the career of Honeysuckle in the Mares Hurdle before she heads off into retirement for Henry De Bromhead who has suffered such a huge loss in the past year! This Festival has something for everyone! It could just be a spine-tingling emotional roller coaster on day one and I’m certainly looking forward to what lies ahead! Now let’s get stuck in!

All prices I’ll quote below will be best price NRNB rather than taking top of the shop under antepost rules trying to look smart!

As usual the Festival kicks off with the Supreme Novices Hurdle and its a far more open affair than what we have become accustomed to in recent years. For me it should be 7/2 the field on the day with bookmakers looking to draw punters in to kick off the week. For me at least anyone backing Facile Vega 5/2 would want their head examined. People are all hung up on bumper form from last season that hasn’t worked out at all and while I’ve always been a critic of the horse and the hype surrounding him I think it’s well justified. Having done what he did last time at Leopardstown if he wasn’t trained by Willie Mullins then he would be double figures. He’s a horse with huge questions to answer. His hurdle debut was run at a crawl where he raced in splendid isolation with everything else in the race too worried about getting anywhere near him for the sake of their handicap marks than actually trying to give him any sort of a race. A 100 rated horse given the soft lead at a slow pace like he got that day would have looked every bit as impressive. Onto Leopardstown he went for a Grade 1 in which he got another soft lead from a bunch of his stable companions and again did nothing to impress me in what was a workmanlike success. Last time at the Dublin Racing Festival it was the first time in his hurdles career that there was a horse in the race of the talent of High Definition from another stable who was willing to put a little pressure on Facile Vega to see if he could get at him and he had him broken when they turned down the back. The bubble is burst for good and I wouldn’t be advising anyone to part with their hard earned with his name on the betting slip that’s for sure. High Definition 12/1 himself wouldn’t be anywhere near good enough for a Supreme in my opinion. While he undoubtedly has an engine his jumping is shocking to say the very least and he is another who benefited from a soft lead and a slow pace at Leopardstown over Christmas when breaking his maiden. I couldn’t have him at any price. Il Etait Temps 6/1 while he was a good winner of the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival he probably just benefited from the best ride in the race. He was a thoroughly exposed Juvenile at the top level last season and has put that experience to good use this season to date but as time goes on the pack are gaining experience and will pass him out as they progress in their own careers. While he is an admirable horse that plenty people would love to own his future will be as nothing more than a handicapper and I’d be shocking disappointed if he was good enough to win a Supreme and if he does you can put a line through all the Novices heading into open company next season. Marine Nationale 7/2 is another who enters calculations for this having won the Royal Bond on his most recent start in what at the time looked a strong race but for me it hasn’t worked out at all. The horse he beat on that occasion Irish Point was very poor at the Dublin Racing Festival left tailed off early not able to go the pace. While Champ Kiely went on to win the Lawlors Grade 1 at Naas over two and a half miles he only beat Irish Point and we already know I don’t rate his chances and add to the mix Ashroe Diamond while although she won the Solerina on her most recent start that race was a crawl and she showed the best turn of foot to win narrowly. Marine Nationale obviously was value for more than the winning margin last time having made a mess of the last and the connections believing the ground to be less than ideal I wouldn’t have any confidence in the form and again he won’t be getting the vote from me. Impaire Et Passe 11/2 is the best novice I’ve seen this season over two miles. He was very good in the Moscow Flyer which is often Willie Mullins’ main trial for his Supreme horses having won the race with the likes of Vatour and Douvan amongst others on the way to taking in the Supreme. He sat off a slow pace that day in a race that turned into a sprint and he quickened well from a speedy mare in The Model Kingdom who would have been suited by the way the race was run but she couldn’t lay a glove on him. His jumping is lightning quick like a proper two mile hurdler should be and we also know he stays well having won his maiden over two and a half miles at Naas on debut just before Christmas. He is exactly the type of horse I would be looking for to back in a Supreme but who knows what Willie Mullins will do. If he turns up here on the day he will be my selection for sure! Luccia 8/1 is a decent mare and sets a good standard for the British challenge or at least she would if she turned up but that looks unlikely to me. He form is nowhere near good enough to take on the boys and her jumping left plenty to be desired last time at Exeter. No doubt she’s a grand mare but a Supreme winning mare I don’t think so. Being perfectly honest I wouldn’t even fancy her for the Mares Novice! Tahmuras 12/1 has done fine since going over hurdles and won the Tolworth in ready fashion despite jumping like a coffee table up the home straight. He fell in that day in my opinion due to the combination of atrocious ground and a number of notable runners disappointing massively. He won’t be able to lay up with them in a Supreme and his jumping won’t do him any favours. He will be a grand staying handicap chaser in time but anyone thinking he’s a genuine Grade 1 performer needs help! Gaelic Warrior 8/1 undoubtedly has a big engine but he was beaten in a Boodles last season off a mark in the 120s and his tendency to jump right at his obstacles won’t do him any favours. He’s another for the last seasons juveniles winning a Supreme bin all novices going into open company basket next season. Of those at bigger prices Diverge 14/1 wouldn’t interest me having won a very poor maiden last time on his second start over hurdles and despite all the talk of how much he improved from his first run at Leopardstown to his win I couldn’t back him at 100/1 nevermind the prices available at the moment. Hunters Yarn 16/1 is definitely a horse who has plenty talent and could run into a place but whether or not he’s good enough to win a Supreme is another thing altogether. Then again it is a weak division this year so it would be foolish to totally discount him. Dark Raven 20/1 ran fine at Leopardstown ok ground probably quick enough for him and given the lack of experience he has he ran a grand race and if the ground turned up on the soft side he would definitely be interesting to me at a big price. Clearly in my opinion Simon Munir and Isaac Suede have a strong hand in this. Doctor Bravo 20/1 ran an absolute stormer when just going down by a lenght and a half behind Fil Dor at Sharjah at Gowran Park last time. That was a monster run from him and he particularly looks a crazy price especially if the ground turned up on the soft side.

Selection: Impaire Et Passe 11/2 (EW)

Dangers: Hunters Yarn 16/1 (EW),             Doctor Bravo 20/1 (EW)

Next up is the Arkle where El Fabiolo 6/4 heads the market in what is sure to be a race of immense quality and run at a frenetic pace. There will be no hiding places in this! El Fabiolo’s jumping left plenty to be desired on debut when left to make all of his own running and while his jumping was far from perfect at the Dublin Racing Festival getting a lead at a decent pace definitely helped and he was much improved and his performance was immense! He stretched clear in the straight from the back of the last from a decent field and with more improvement likely there’s no telling what he is capable of! I’m certainly looking forward to finding out! Jonbon 13/8 fell into second in last seasons Supreme behind Constitution Hill and that effort will not be good enough here. Sure he beat El Fabiolo in Aintree but this is a different discipline and El Fabiolo has improved mentally and physically and I believe he has improved past Jonbon. The form of his Novice Chase starts are looking weak at best and add to the fact he has only faced a total of six rivals in three starts over fences it wouldn’t inspire confidence for me! He was workmanlike at Warwick last time in a match race against a vastly inferior rival and despite every excuse in the book being given including making his own running not suiting him despite doing that on most of his starts over hurdles and all his starts over fences to date so that certainly won’t wash with me! At Warwick his jumping was the worst it has been on his three starts to date and he went out to his right. In all honesty I wouldn’t be surprised if he had an issue that was causing that and have seen enough to say that’s a real possibility! He certainly won’t be featuring in my Festival bets that’s for sure! Dysart Dynamo 5/1 went off like a scalded cat at Leopardstown last time and paid for that late on just missing out on the places but I wouldn’t lose faith in him when it comes to this race. His jumping is electric and with just a little more of a reserved ride over a furlong and a half less around a real speedy test over the Arkle course and distance he might be hard to reel in! He got alot of his rivals at it from very early on last time and I expect him to do similar here! He is a pure two mile chaser and if there are any chinks in the armour of his rivals he will find it that’s for sure! This is likely going to be a small field and its hard to find runners of note at the bigger prices who will turn up here. Final Orders 20/1 comes here via the handicap route and has improved massively throughout the season but he won’t be able to go the pace Dysart Dynamo is going to set here and will be badly found out. Saint Roi 14/1 is lucky the real Grade 1 horses weren’t out earlier in the season due to the quick ground because if they had been there isn’t a hope in hell he would have a Grade 1 win to his name! He has no chance in this as he neither has the talent nor does his jumping  leave much to be desired. If there is one overpriced in here that could run into a place it would be Flame Bearer 50/1 who has some really good novice hurdle form in the book from last season and he hung in there for a long way at the Dublin Racing Festival before ultimately fading from two out! I have no idea if he will even turn up at Cheltenham but if he did 50/1 would be an insult in a race where most who even turn up to try steal some place money will find the pace much too hot to handle!

Selection: El Fabiolo 6/4

Dangers: Dysart Dynamo 5/1(EW),             Flame Bearer 50/1 (EW)

The first handicap of the Festival is the Ultima Handicap Chase a race I personally have a good record in finding recent winners at double figures prices such at The Conditional and last year with Corach Rambler! Let’s hope I can continue that good run this time around! Into Overdrive 8/1 is one in and around favouritism for this one having been a good second to L’homme Presse at Newcastle before winning at Wetherby over Christmas and while he’s an admirable horse I think the handicapper should have a firm.grip of him now and a mark of 147 looks to be his ceiling to me. Also the likely quicker spring ground at the Festival would be a concern for me. I know he’s won on plenty of good to soft in the past but that was in a much lower grade than this where his class being so well in in the handicap helped him cope with that. I’d worry about him in this class of race on good or good to soft ground. Threeunderthrufive 10/1 runs here for the race sponsors and Paul Nicholls and this is a horse I like the profile of for a race like this. He contested the Brown Advisory last season beaten about 18L by L’homme Presse there which is nothing to be ashamed of and he has some good course form in beating Does He Know in a Novice Chase there last season and we know that horse has an affinity with Cheltenham! Threeunderthrufive has a rating of 150 having being dropped 1lb for his run in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time and that was a run I really liked with this race in mind it’s always a good guide for this race. He travelled and jumped really well and turning in you would have been staggered if he had finished out of the places but he did and that was purely down to not quite staying the trip for me. Back on a bit of nice ground around Cheltenham and off a workable mark he would be high on my shortlist for this and will be carrying some of my cash on the day! Corach Rambler 10/1 as I’ve already mentioned won last seasons renewal of this race off a mark of 140. He’s off of a mark of 146 now having been dropped 1lb for finishing fourth in the old Hennessey at Newbury last time. He got well out of his ground that day and looked like he would be tailed off but he made up an enormous amount of ground in the home straight to finish close enough to what was a good winner in Le Milos and the form of the race has been working out well since. We know he likes the track with two course wins to his name and I think it’s a track and race that really plays to his strengths. The way he shaped at Newbury he definitely still has juice in his mark and back here I wouldn’t discount him in what’s an open race. Oscar Elite 12/1 was a good winner of the Reynoldstown at Ascot over but in truth it was a shocking renewal of that race and add to that the race normally leaves its mark on horses who head to the festival albeit its normally run in much different conditions than it was at the weekend. He ran well in the race last season off a mark 4lbs out of the handicap so raced off of 138 but he had alot more substance to his form last season and with lots of doubts over the form and the likely 140ish rating he will have from the weekend now I’d find it hard to have any confidence in him to replicate last seasons run. Remastered 14/1 is pushing on a bit now and is one of the old boys in this race. He’s a 10yo now and off of a mark of 152 now over fences I think he’s at his absolute limit in the handicap. I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t a few too good for him in here for all he’s an admirable old boy! Happygolucky 14/1 for the Kim Bailey stable would have to firmly enter calculations here. He was second in the race a couple of seasons ago off a mark of 147 and while 5lbs higher now off 152 I don’t think that would stop him getting involved. Kim Bailey year in year out almost has a horse laid out for this race and has peppered the target in recent years with his runners in this race and he certainly knows the right type for this. Having finished third at Newcastle behind L’homme Presse on seasonal reappearance he dropped back in trip to two and a half miles next time in Cheltenham behind Midnight River where he ran well for a long time before ultimately getting outpaced. I think Kim Bailey knows his horse is still on a winnable mark and he will be primed for the day.

Selections: Threeunderthrufive 10/1(EW), Happygolucky 14/1 (EW)

Danger: Corach Rambler 10/1 (EW)

The feature race of Day 1 is the Champion Hurdle and while some think this is a foregone conclusion and would just give the trophy to Michael Buckley now I don’t believe it’s as simple as that! Constitution Hill 4/11 quite frankly is a ridiculous price! While he looked sensational in the Supreme last season the race was set up for him to do just that! He’s undoubtedly a very talented horse but one of the greatest hurdlers of all time? Give me a break! He wouldn’t even make it close to getting into my top ten! He has never beaten a proper horse in my opinion. His form this season amounts to nothing and people are grasping at straws to give him outrageous ratings. The form of the Fighting Fifth is nothing short of woeful. He got an incredibly soft lead and Epatante is a shadow of her former self. She also made a mistake at a crucail juncture of the race and it was all over from there. She struggled to beat Not So Sleepy who was strangled by Johnny Burke and not left run the race that suits him best making the running and saying catch me if you can and he hasn’t shown any kind of form in over twelve months. Again at Kempton he got a soft lead but infairness to Highway One O One though completely out of his depth he at least tried to lay up with Constitution Hill and didn’t give it to him all his own way. The line I would take on that effort was Constitution Hill beat Epatante again fine but Highway One O One who was giving Epatante 7lbs despite only having a rating of 146. He was clearly the second best horse on the day having put it up to Constitution Hill he did well to finish as close as he did which says to me the form isn’t all its made out to be.  There is definite holes in the favourite and I will be taking him on. State Man 11/4 on paper will look to many to be the best of the Irish but he won a weak renewal of the Morgiana beating Sharjah who this season has looked a shadow of his former self getting beaten over the weekend by Fil Dor so the form of that is questionable and again at Christmas he had race fitness and track position over Vauban and Sharjah back in third again. As for the Dublin Racing Festival he bossed the race from the front on what was to me a slow pace and it turned into a sprint. He got first run on the field and was best positioned to be impressive and while he undoubtedly had more in the tank and won well in the end I don’t think he’s that much better than his rivals looking at how they finished in a heep behind him which just reiterates my first impression that the race was ran at a slow pace! Paul Townend and State Man will give Constitution Hill plenty of it on the day and in a battle who knows what he will find under pressure. Vauban 10/1 isn’t out of this at all! He will be ridden to come and pick up the pieces in the straight and he certainly has the pace and talent to catch the top two on the hop if they soften eachother up infront. He’s definitely the eachway play in the race and i cang see him out of the first three! As for the rest of them the Brits have nothing worth thinking about they will be playing for 5th at best!

Selection: Vauban 10/1 (EW)

Danger: State Man 11/4

The Mares Hurdle this year is shaping up to be a cracking renewal and may well be the best race of the Festival in what looks a competitive year across the board which is really saying something. Honeysuckle 9/4 is probably the right favourite in my book. What she has done at the Festival in her career has been fantastic and I don’t think her runs have been that bad so far this season. She has always needed her first run of the season and there’s no shame in being beaten by Klassical Dream and Teahupoo over two and a half miles on soft ground in the Hattons Grace! Again in Leopardstown she just knuckled on landing at the last in the back straight when the race was just quickening up and the slow pace didn’t suit her at this stage of her career she has lost a degree of the pace she’s shown in the past. I’m hoping the occasion will light an extra spark in her and she would absolutely bring the house down if she could win this and retire on the back of a Festival win. That said I’m a big believer in the she’s the reigning two time Champion Hurdler and she should be running in the Champion Hurdle but that’s not going to happen. Epatante 7/2 is a horrible price! I honestly believe she is a shadow of her former self! I give her absolutely no chance and she is one of the worst priced horses of the entire festival! I will be shocked if she wins and honestly don’t think she will make it into the places! Marie’s Rock 4/1 is the best of the Brits I believe and by some way! I had thought her win in this race last year was a bit of a fluke but she’s proven herself to be a class apart when it comes to the Mares in the UK! I’d actually like to see her in a Stayers Hurdle if I’m being completely honest but she will more than likely stick to this race. She stays well and has a touch of class and she certainly will be staying on up the hill and if anyone wanted to have a bet on her I have no real strong reason to put you off. Brandy Love 6/1 no doubt is a talented mare but she has plenty quirks about her and was late making her reappearance this season when she was ultimately veru disappointing behind Queens Brook at Punchestown. She’s obviously a mare with issues which would have to be a concern. She is also highly strung and jumps to her left, violently at times. I couldn’t back her for this with all those doubts about her and the strength and depth in this contest. Love Envoi 7/1 is a tough and admirable mare and she’s solid especially if the ground turns up soft but I really think there are classier more talented mares in the race. That said if any of them don’t run up to scratch she will be there to pick up plenty pieces and we know she’s as tough as old boots but I think she’s overachieved in her career to date! Echoes In Rain 7/1 is an interesting runner in this she is going to be held up off what is likely going to be a strong gallop and a true test and she will come with one run late to try pick up as many pieces as possible! Is she good enough to win without others underperforming or softening eachother up infront getting racing too far out probably not but it’s not beyond the realms of possibilities. She definitely has place claims. Shewearsitwell 14/1 has no chance in my opinion in this race she’s another mare who has had plenty physical issues in her career and while admirable she is more of a handicapper than a Grade 1 mare and she is a terrible price at 12/1. Queens Brook 10/1 similarly is out of her depth here. Her best chance of winning a race like this came last season. The standard has been upped big time in the last twelve months and she has fallen well short of the mark. She was very disappointing at Christmas in Leopardstown and I’d find it hard to seeing her turning that around with Shewearsitwell nevermind challenging the likes of Marie’s Rock and Honeysuckle despite taking care of Brandy Love last time when in receipt of weight at Punchestown! Telmesomethinggirl 20/1 is a mare with unfinished business in this race. She was cruising last season when coming to grief at the second last. She’s a different mare in the Spring and especially around Cheltenham there’s something about the place that seems to bring her to life. She will get a strong pace to aim at and given a clear round this time I think she would get the one horse at a price I think could throw the cat amongst the pigeons! That said I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bigger price available on her on the day!

Selection: Honeysuckle 9/4

Danger: Telmesomethinggirl 20/1 (EW)

The penultimate race on Day 1 is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and Tekao 4/1 heads the market for Willie Mullins and JP McManus. I suppose he is a worthy favourite in that he travelled really well for a long way in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth briefly looking threatening as they turned in before ultimately fading away. That is a solid piece of form but do for me he’s a bit of a tame finisher as he showed in his first start over hurdles at Navan when hotly fancied he travelled into the race very well before going out like a light and I’d harbour doubts over him in that regard when facing the Cheltenham hill! Sir Allen 9/1 wouldn’t interest me at all in this having been second by default to Blood Destiny who many people fancy for the Triumph Hurdle on debut at Cork where the winner eased clear in the straight. He then went on to beat Calico who has been a bitter disappointment to connections having initially shown plenty promise but can’t get the job done when the chips are down and of course won a dawdle last time when well positioned for a sprint and the riders claim was invaluable in getting his head home infront. He’s likely to be overrated and under priced on the day so I’ll be steering well clear! Byker 7/1 is another at the head of the market that will attract plenty of support mainly because of his trainer whom everyone seems to think all of a sudden that every horse he runs at the Festival will win and he could easily have three or four runners and three or four favourites to boot but I think that’s down to the man’s reputation and bookmakers using that as a reason to shorten them up and those short prices inevitably suck people in! He was beaten first time up over hurdles pretty convincingly by a horse that subsequently has gotten beat racing off of a mark of 106 and while he did win his second hurdle start he may have benefitted from some quick thinking from his jockey who made a big move when their was no pace on to take up the running and was never headed thereafter. I wouldn’t like to say he has no chance because with Charles Byrnes anything is possible but for the reasons outlined above he’s anothee that for me falls into the overrated and under priced bracket I’d be happy to let run without supporting. Nusret 7/1 is another one that I don’t think will turn up here. Daryl Jacob was adamant on an appearance on The Road To Cheltenham earlier in the season that the horse needed to go right handed and he wouldn’t be going to Cheltenham. Punchestown looks set to be his main target for the season so he’s another quickly discounted from the reckoning of this race. Bo Zenith 11/1 for Gary Moore and the British battalion is a woeful price for this race! He was beaten out of sight in Sandown before coming out and winning last weekend at Haydock in very workmanlike fashion. He was pushed along intermittently at numerous stages of the race and looked beat turning in before ultimately staying on strongest all the way to the line! I don’t think he has the pace to deal with any race at the Festival especially on nice ground and wouldn’t interest me in the slightest. The horse I’ve had on my radar for quite a while for his race has been Cougar 16/1 for last seasons winning combination if JP McManus and Padraig Roche! He won his first two hurdles starts at Gowran Park and Down Royal before going to a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas where he went from travelling well in a good position to completely blowing up in a matter of strides. Now it wouldn’t be a surprise to me if he had had a very easy time of things between his run in down Royal and that run at Christmas about seven weeks later and was badly in need of the run that day in what was just a box ticking exercise to get him the third run under his belt to qualify for this race. Write him off at your peril. Metamorpheus 33/1 would be one at a big price who could run well in this sort of race. He ran a stormer on hurdles debut at Limerick to finish third and had Byker in behind him that day before going on to Punchestown next time and sprinting away from the back of the last to go and win well in what looked a fairly competitive race beforehand. The race last time in Naas wasn’t run to suit and with a likely strong pace and a good test of stamina to be expected in a Boodles at the Festival I could certainly see him finishing strong late on to grab a slice of the place money at least.

Selection: Cougar 16/1 (EW)

Damger: Metamorpheus 33/1 (EW)

The National Hunt Chase in the past was an ultra competitive race with big fields but as the goalposts have been moved in order for horses to qualify for this race in recent years we have ended up with small fields and an uncompetitive contest. All season I’ve wanted to take on Gaillard Des Mesnil 5/4 he’s looked vulnerable as a second season Novice who never fully convinced last season and even this season his performances have been nothing to write home about. That said there is literally nowhere else to turn if your looking for a bet in this race. I don’t think we will even get a dead eight runners for eachway betting purposes. The race is as bad a renewal as I’ve seen and I suspect he will go off long odds on and so he should. He actually has nothing to beat. He’s a solid jumper be stays all day and he’s by far the most talented horse in the race. It would take an act of god for him not to win this! Churchstone Warrior 13/2 is a grand horse and is a credit to his connections but jesus any other year he would be 20s plus for this race which just emphasises the lack of genuine opposition to the favourite. He was a good winner in Navan last time when beating Mahler Mission 7/1 but all they are really is 130s handicappers really they are miles off what should be needed to win a Graded Chase at the Festival. Chemical Energy 7/1 was flattered by his win at Cheltenham back in the Autumn in a race that fell apart and he was badly exposed at Naas recently behind Ramillies 5/1 who I’m not sure will even turn up here. Will connections want to run two horses in the same colours against eachother I’m not so sure. If he doesn’t turn up the horse to chase home home the favourite may well be Mister Coffey 9/1 with Derek O’Connor likely to take the ride having gone to Uttoxeter in recent weeks to ride him in a handicap chase where he ran his usual solid race to finish in the money. He’s undoubtedly a horse of fair ability but always seems to find one or two too good. He might not have the heart for a battle but he will stay all day and has loads of experience he would probably just about get the nod to follow the favourite home especially if Ramillies doesn’t run.

Selection: Gaillard Des Mesnil 5/4

Danger: Mister Coffey 9/1 (EW)

Day two gets underway with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and again for a change to recent years it looks an ultra competitive race! Hermes Allen 11/4 heads the market as a rare British favourite for a Festival novice hurdle! He has course form having being a ready winner of a Novice hurdle over course and distance beating Music Drive of Gordon Elliotts who would be a million for this race! Since then he won the Challow at Newbury in impressive fashion but he got the run of the race in bad ground and may well have just handled conditions better than most. Its hard to gauge the level of form now but you’d have to have been impressed and the form has worked out well enough albeit at a much lower level. 11/4 just looks a bit on the short side to me but come the morning of the race depending on how British Novices have run in the Supreme he could be a very warm order. Time will tell but he wouldn’t be for me. Impaire Et Passe 7/2 obviously would be of big interest if he turned up here even if I think he should run in a Supreme we know his jumping is unreal and he has a turn of foot and stays well. If he turns up I’ll have to have something on him but Willie please see sense and run him in the Supreme! Good Land 5/1 was good at the Dublin Racing Festival but I would much prefer to see him in a Bartlett than here. I think he’s a bit one paced and traditionally you would need a turn of foot to win a Ballymore. At the Dublin Racing Festival over two miles and six furlongs he got to the front turning jn after being well positioned throughout and he never really pulled away like he threatened to going to the last while the horses who chased him home came from well off the pace. He’s an admirable horse and clearly gas plenty of ability but I can see him getting tapped for toe at a crucial point of the race. He will run well to a point but for me he has place claims at best. Gaelic Warrior 9/2 could start now in my opinion and I still wouldn’t back him for a Ballymore. He’s never appeared to me to be a horse that needed a step up in trip. He’s been keen over two miles on all his runs to date and he jumps right I just couldn’t have him! However small a chance I was giving him in a Supreme he has absolutely no chance in a Ballymore! Absolutely none whatsoever! Champ Kiely 8/1 was a major disappointment in the Royal Bond before returning to form in the Lawlors of Naas but he got the run of the race that day and the race hasnt worked out well to date. Honestly in my book he’s a handicapper and no more than that. I would be surprised if he even figured in the places. Inthepocket 12/1 is a huge fancy of mine for quite a while for this race. I firmly believe he’s a proper Grade 1 horse. I was very impressed with him winning his maiden hurdle at Wexford early in the season and he backed up the initial good impression when winning the rescheduled Grade 2 from Navan just before Christmas in what in my opinion is the best novice hurdle run either side of the Irish Sea so far this season. He beat Three Card Brag that day in what ultimately ended up as a stamina test which wouldn’t have suited. He’s a strong traveller and good jumper. Rachel had him covered up early but he he jumped his way into it down the back and with the two hurdles in the straight taken out they got racing a long way from home. This horse is all pace a really classy individual and he carted himself into a gap going by the second last and Rachel couldn’t disappoint him she had to send him on to win his race. After looking to put the race to bed he idled up the run in an won narrowly but I would suggest he was much the best horse in the race. The form was franked by Three Card Brag winning easily next time and is a leading fancy for the Bartlett while Absolute Notions who was thrid that day was second at Leopardstown to Good Land and again is prominent in the betting for the Bartlett. Inthepocket ran over two miles last time at the Dublin Racing Festival but I’d suggest that was purely down to all the pace he’s shown to date and the timing of the race would put him spot on for Cheltenham. I wouldn’t mind the fact he was beat that day Rachel got into plenty trouble and rode into a pocket behind Facile Vega and by the time she managed to get out to make her run the race was already over and Il Etait Temps had flown. Stepping back up to the two and a half miles will be a massive plus for him here and that pace he possesses will be a huge asset at the business end of this. I can see him coming swinging round the home bend and accelerating away from the back of the lastto win impressively. Finger crossed my confidence vindicated with a performance to match! Just to throw one in at a wild price Affordale Fury 50/1 if left roll infront like he did in Navan the day he broke American Mike would be dangerous to underestimate. He’s a talented horse who has a high cruising speed and being held up last time didn’t suit I’m at all in the Lawlors at Naas. If back to front running tactics his price underestimates him here and I’d suspect that he’d reverse form with a few that finished ahead of him that day. That said he might be kept at home to go to Fairyhouse at Easter and onto Punchestown but if he did turn up and was back to front running then he could run the finish out of a few of these.

Selection: Inthepocket 12/1 (EW)

Danger: Impaire Et Passe 7/2 (if he runs)

The Brown Advisory is up next and this is a puzzling race. Gerri Colombe 7/4 is a warm order but I couldn’t have him for this or any festival Grade 1 in a fit! He’s a big slow old boat that’s never beaten a proper horse in his life. The main concern alot of people have for him is he likes soft ground but that aside I just don’t think he’s good enough. He’s won a terrible Grade 1 at Limerick over Christmas struggling to put away a bunch of Irish handicappers before going to Sandown for the and struggling to put away a couple of British handicappers. He looked in trouble for a fair bit that day before ultimately grinding out the victory but jesus if that’s as good as the Grade 1 staying Novices are this year then we might as well give up now there will be no Novice capable of progressing into open company next season! I wouldn’t back him with stolen money or even Icys money for that matter he simply has to be taken on! The Real Whacker 5/1 has been one of the surprise packages of the season with the heights he’s scaled over fences. That may be more of a reflection of the shocking standard of novice chasers around at the moment though as harsh as that may sound! He’s a fantastic jumper and his front running tactics show him to great effect as he gets other horses under pressure. He’s an admirable horse and has been great for connections but I think the dreams end there unfortunately and as for the Gold Cup entry that is delusional! He could place in this but that’s just down to the shocking standard of Novices around at the moment but as far as winning goes he has absolutely no chance! Thyme Hill 11/2 is over the hill at this stage and hasn’t the scope for chasing! He fell in in Kempton at Christmas in a shocking race that fell apart around him and I wouldn’t be expecting him to feature here in any meaningful way. I’d be avoiding him like the plague! Sir Gerhard 5/1 is by far the most talented horse in this race! Take his lack of chasing experience out of the equation and in this field he would be odds on! If there’s a horse in this race at the completely wrong price it’s him! Currently the Turners is looking a much hotter race so it makes sense for him to come here. The slow pace will help him overcome his lack of experience over fences and I don’t think he will have any problem staying. He’s a former Champion Bumper and Ballymore winner and for me he’s the most likely winner of this! Hopefully his class will see him through! Thedevilscoachman 14/1 could be a live one in this at a price! He’s had two good runs over fences now having been impressive in his beginners in Galway and Naas last time where he was much the best horse in the race. In between those two attempts he took a heavy fall in the Drinmore but that all seems to be behind him now. He had a few runs last season in some really good beginners chases over two miles and that seems to have really helped in his development. He’s still a big baby but he’s improving all the time and of the ones at prices he should run well although he wouldn’t want ground too quick. Following the chase debut of James Du Berlais 16/1 looked to me to be a horse who would have a say in a race like this but by all accounts he bled last time at Leopardstown so that would rule him out as a bet for the foreseeable future. Amirite 50/1 is another who has shown enough spark over fences to at least say to me that he has the ability to make the frame in this race especially with the standard of the division this season. He was going well albeit a long way from home over Christmas when Jack Kennedy push Rachel Blackmore out of the saddle and if the ground was to turn up on the good side he would be no forlorn hope to run into the money at a big price!

Selection: Sir Gerhard 5/1 (EW)

Danger: Thedevilscoachman 14/1 (EW)

The Coral Cup is next up and as usual it’s a competitive affair with HMS Seahorse 8/1 one of those at the head or the market for the Paul Nolan team. He’s a classy horse off the flat who ran well in the Boodles last season as a juvenile. He’s got a rating of 101 on the flat so he’s a highly talented individual in that sphere and won his most recent hurdles start at Navan in January impressively off of an Irish mark of 132. He’s gets in here off 143 which I think is lenient considering how the Irish are getting crucified for the handicaps at the Festival this season. The one doubt I’d have in the back of mind would be he may well have a preference for an ease in the ground and the fact that Paul Nolan wanted said after his Navan win that he’d rather be going to the Pertemps but he didn’t have the race options at home to get him qualified and didn’t want to travel to Britain at that stage of the season. If he runs here he definitely has a chance and on the off chance the ground was on the slow side I think it would definitely be a positive. He definitely has an eachway chance here. Run For Oscar 8/1 represents Charles Byrnes best chance of a winner at this years festival in my opinion. He absolutely hacked up in the English Cesarewich back in the Autumn on the flat off a mark of 90 he just completely took the race apart that day and he could do the same here even off of 147. He loves nice ground and he jumps and travels well. Add to that he had plenty experience in big field quality races both flat and jumps the occasion certainly won’t get to him. He ran off this mark on his penultimate hurdles start finishing third not beat all that far over three miles and I think the drop back to two and a half miles here will be right up his street. On his most recent run he ran third again this time behind Saint Sam on soft to heavy ground around Punchestown on New Years Eve. I firmly believe this has been the plan since that day and after a busy 2022 he’s been freshened up and coming here on a bit of nice ground we should see the best version of Run For Oscar. Hopefully it’s good enough to take the prize. Haut En Couleurs 8/1 is a ridiculous price in this market. He hasn’t run over hurdles since his juvenile season and add to that how ungenuine he’s proved over fences I couldn’t have him for any race let alone this one. The British handicapper is doing his best to hand Britain a winner with his handicapping of Camprond 9/1 who was fourth in this race last season off of a mark of 140 and gets in here off of 138 this time around having won impressively off of an Irish 137 at the Punchestown Festival last season. This season he’s had two starts over fences which he didn’t take to at all and three over hurdles but two of those were over a completely inadequate too miles. If Philip Hobbs can get him primed for this he would have to be a big player on a sounder surface than he encountered on this day last year when a combination of a deluge of rain and nothing getting into the race from off the front end saw him come home well late without ever threatening. It would be no surprise to see him go close. Saint Sam 16/1 would be an interesting runner if he turned up here off of a mark of 152. He may be destined for the Stayers Hurdle as a bit of a spoiler for Flooring Porter to get him overracing early and ensure he gets no soft lead this year but if he turned up here he certainly has the talent to run well. They tried holding him up at Navan last time behind Blazing Khal and he pulled his chance away and resented every second of it. He’s a free going talented front runner with plenty pace and he won’t shy away from a battle. He competed at the top level last season as a novice chaser but his low jumping style held him back. A return to hurdles saw him regain the winning thread at Punchestown and like I said a change of tactics backfired last time. He would be a danger to all if let loose on the front end and might well be hard to peg back. He was narrowly touched off here a couple of seasons ago in the Boodles so he’s form at the Festival over hurdles in a big handicap so fingers crossed he will run a big race at a decent price. Grand Roi 25/1 went off a 6/1 favourite for this race a couple of years ago off a mark of 149 and he also ran in the race last season. While ultimately he has been disappointing during his career especially since joining Gordon Elliott it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if he got his act together belatedly and surprised a few in here. He’s obviously a horse that has shown plenty at home but hasn’t quite Brough the same level of form to the track. He gets in here off a mark of 144 and that could underestimate him. San Salvador 16/1 comes here off the back of a win at Punchestown off an Irish mark of 124 but his British mark has been upped to 138 since then. He got first run on the field that day when he slipped the field off the home bend and opened up an unassailable lead. He was a fortunate winner in my opinion due to a very good ride and I think this kind of mark will be enough to stop him in his tracks. For me he certainly won’t be winning a race at the Festival. No Ordinary Joe 20/1 would be a very interesting runner in this were he to turn up. He did all his winning as a novice over two and a half miles but has been solely campaigned over two miles in handicaps thus far. He’s always been a free going type and ran away with Nico De Boinville in the 2021 Greatwood but he’s looked a fair bit more attractive this season learning to settle and I think he’s ready now for a step up in trip at this level. He’s definitely better than a mark of 139 and if he turned up here on the day on a bit of nice ground he’d be a great bet at that sort of a price.

Selections: Run For Oscar 8/1 (EW),       No Ordinary Joe 20/1 (EW)

Danger: Saint Sam 16/1 (EW)

The Champion Chase is the feature race on Day 2 of the Festival and from seeing somewhat of a foregone conclusion only a few weeks ago a shock result in the rescheduled Clarence House at Cheltenham. Energumene 15/8 still heads the market despite his jumping falling apart last time. In all honesty he hasn’t looked the same horse from what I’ve seen this season. On his seasonal reappearance in the Hilly Way his jumping left plenty to be desired for me he was getting in tight to plenty and breathing his fences before hanging round the bend turning away from the stand. I’m a big believer of if something looks off about a horse then something probably is off. The eyes don’t lie. Again in the Clarence House his jumping was far from fluent and his mistake at the last was really uncharacteristic for him. On those two efforts I don’t think I could back him for anything until he proves to be over whatever issue he has is. Willie Mullins tried to blame the white fences but that’s nothing short of bull in my opinion and the jury is out! If his jumping doesn’t smarten up in a big way i wouldnt fancy him to get round nevermind win. Edwardstone 15/8 is probably the most appealing of the two market leaders with the least amount of questions to answer at this point. The one negative I have about him at this point is last time he came to go by Editeur Du Gite in the Clarence House got there and was worried out of it again up the hill. His jumping is solid and he will likely handle quick ground better than Energumene but really this race seems to have fallen apart and won’t actually take that much winning. Editeur Du Gite 6/1 won the aforementioned Clarence House last time and look it was great for the Moores and all connections but jesus this horse wouldn’t be within an ass’s roar of being a Champion Chaser he’s a decent handicapper and that’s that. That’s enough said about that let’s just let that be now and move swiftly on. Gentleman De Mee 9/1 was a Grade 1 winner at Aintree as a Novice beating Edwardstone and even though he was in the doldrums for the first few runs of the season he bounced back to form in no uncertain fashion at the Dublin Racing Festival. I think proper spring ground really suits him and he was the same last season he took a few runs to get into real tip top form but when he got there he proved his class. Now your taking on trust now he can reproduce his run at Leopardstown rather than any of his earlier runs this season but I believe that he can leave that early season well behind him and of all the horses in the Champion Chase he’s the one at the prices I’d be having a few quid eachway on and I don’t think he will be out of the first three. On most recent form I think he has the least to prove! I didn’t think I’d be saying that a few weeks ago! Blue Lord 10/1 was very impressive over Christmas at Leopardstown but last time at the Dublin Racing Festival he ran very flat and will need to bounce back to figure here. I think he probably needs soft ground and a real test to be seen at his best and while two miles and one furlong suited over Christmas at Leopardstown quick ground over shy of 2 miles would just be too much of a speed test for him to my mind anyway. He might not even run here who knows now with Allaho coming out of the Ryanair he might go back up to two and a half miles for a tilt at that. In my opinion he would certainly have a better chance of winning a Ryanair than a Champion Chase. Nube Negra 25/1 is one of the most over rated horses of recent times and he hasn’t a hope in hell of winning a Champion Chase! He couldn’t beat Put The Kettle On in a Champion Chase at the peak of his powers nevermind on the back of a downward spiral the last two seasons. If there was one to make the frame at a mad price it would probably be Captain Guinness 66/1 who seems to be as good as ever this season. He won on seasonal reappearance in Navan before running a stormer at Leopardstown over Christmas behind a peak Blue Lord. I think the way the race is run and the conditions will suit him and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he shocked a few and snuck a place. Now I’d fall off my chair if he won but he’s not without place possibilities! In a match race I’d certainly fancy him to beat the likes of Editeur Du Gite who is a small fraction of the price!

Selection: Gentleman De Mee 10/1(EW)

Danger: Edwardstone 15/8

Up next is the Cross Country and Gordon Elliott holds a strong hand in this race and really it would be a shock if he didn’t land the prize again. Delta Work 11/8 is a worthy favourite for this race having won the race last year beating Tiger Roll and running so well under handicap conditions over course and distance giving away lumps of weight to all his rivals when not beaten all that far. What more can you say he’s a former Grade 1 winner who took well to this discipline and is in good form he proves he handles the demands the race puts on the runners and off level weights here he does look to have a huge chance of defending his crown. That said we thought Tiger Roll had the race at his mercy last year only for a classy Grade 1 winning staying chaser from his own stable to come and spoil the part and that could be the case here again with Galvin 5/2 who has Festival form in the bag having run well in at a few festivals now winning a National Hunt Chase and acquitting himself well on another couple of occasions. He’s a classy horse who likes decent ground and who has a few less miles on the clock than Delta Work. While I couldn’t knock anyone for backing Delta Work I would slightly favour Galvin here given he is the likelier of the two to appreciate the quick surface and while we don’t know how he will handle the discipline there’s enough juice in his price for me to give him the vote over his more experienced stable companion. As for the rest Back On The Lash 16/1 and Snow Leopardess 20/1 are admirable performers and always give their running no matter where they turn up off levels they are playing for place money only in here and stand no chance of winning the race unless something goes badly wrong with the two at the head of the market. Mortal 40/1 is probably the only horse I can say in here who’s price is too big and I could easily see him run into a place having showed a liking for this course and distance a couple of times in the past but again he has a place chance only he won’t be winning this. There’s always plenty talk about a possibly French challenge in this race and I’ve spent plenty time over the years writing pieces on French horses who haven’t turned up so I’m just going to leave them aside for now and at time of declarations if something is left in I’ll reassess then.

Selection: Galvin 5/2

The Grand Annual is the penultimate race on Day 2 of the Festival and Dinoblue 7/1 has found herself at the head of the market for this. I was a big fan of her last season as a novice hurdler but she was too free in the Mares Novice here and pulled her chance away. She’s taken really well to chasing thus far her jumping has been exceptional and her front running style is always an asset in a race like this. She’s an out and out two miler so the Mares Chase wouldn’t be a good option for her so if she’s going to run at the Festival she will surely run here. A mark of 140 looks very fair and she has to go close off if coping with the demands of this kind of test against more experienced rivals. She’s a big player for sure. Aucunrisque 8/1 has found his place towards the head of the market thanks to a good winner in the Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 138 and gets in here off 147 on his return to fences. He’s a really tough likeable front runner but that 147 could be enough to stop him. I’d like to think there’s better handicapped horses in this field. Andy Dufresne 9/1 is well found in the market as he returns off the same mark that saw him finish second in this race last season. He’s a real top level handicapper who is just shy of graded company. He’s been a great servant for connections and while I can see him running well again he’s another one that may find a couple of better handicapped rivals in the field to get the better of him. Saint Roi 9/1 was a Grade 1 Novice winner at Leopardstown at Christmas and to be perfectly honest a very fortunate one that all the real top novices were slow to get going this season due to the unseasonably quick ground. He was taken off his feet from the word go at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival and the same could happen here. A mark of 153 definitely has him handicapped to the hilt and I don’t believe his jumping will hold up in a race like this. I’d be steering well clear. Third Time Lucki 11/1 is another horse I can’t have in this race. He’s done all his winning in small uncompetitive fields and is ultimately soft when push comes to shove. He’s always underpriced and has always been overrated in my opinion. Red Rookie 20/1 was a big fancy of mine for this race last season but connections opted to run in the Arkle instead which in hindsight was a big mistake. He has some cracking handicap chase form in the book from last season and though he hasn’t been at his best so far this season that may be down to design. He made his seasonal debut at Chepstow on Welsh National Day over two and a half miles behind Fugitif when he travelled extremely well and blew up in the straight. On a return to two miles it was much more like it at Sandown last time and if he can progress from that again I think he has a great chance in here off 137. At 20/1 he’s one I’ll just have to have a flutter on. Shakem Up’Arry 20/1 shouldn’t be discounted either he’s a classy horse on his day and though his sole victory this season came over two miles and three furlongs at Exeter I think his best trip is two miles. He’s a strong traveller and a proper two mile test like he’d get here I think is just what he’s been crying out for. He travelled well last time in the Paddy Power here over two and a half before ultimately failing to pick up from the last home. I think he just didn’t stay that day and back here over two miles going a proper gallop he’s a contender.

Selections: Dinoblue 7/1 (EW), Red Rookie 20/1 (EW)

Dangers: Andy Dufresne 9/1 (EW) Shakem Up’Arry 20/1 (EW)

The Champion Bumper is the closing race on day two and by the time it finishes we will have reached the halfway stage of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. Normally again we have a real talking horse in this race but as is the trend this year we have much more open competitive races and I for one am enjoying the challenge of finding winners but we will see how happy I am come the end of the week when my pocket will tell the story. Its For Me 4/1 heads the market here and looked very very smart on bumper debut at Navan in January when he streaked clear of his rivals on the bridle to run out an easy winner. Now he lacks on experience but he makes up for that in class or at least he seems to. He was very impressive in his point to point also and I don’t think he’s a one trick pony who just has a turn of foot I think he’s a real thorough stayer too and though a short enough price it looks justified and I wouldn’t be too quick to oppose him. A Dream To Share 5/1 for me was flattered at Leopardstown and I think that was his day in the sun. He was a good winner in Tipperary before heading to Roscommon and winning at long odds on back in June. While he as a great story for the Gleesons in Leopardstown and great to see John Kiely with a nice horse but he’s way too short here and I couldn’t have him at all. That said the quicker the ground the better his chance but is it going to get quick enough to inconvenience everything else? I don’t think so! Fun Fun Fun 8/1 is a ridiculous price for this race I don’t think the race at Leopardstown was any good and probably the worst renewal of the race I’ve seen since the inception of the Dublin Racing Festival. The hype around this horse for me is solely because Patrick Mullins bred it and there is money to be made the bigger the reputation the hope is the more money he will make but he’d want to be selling all stocks in that hype in the next few weeks because ethe bubble will soon burst! Chapeau De Soleil 9/1 has no business in this market having disgraced himself on bumper debut at Fairyhouse and not being seen since! Anyone thinking of backing this deserves to have their account closed for their own sake! He has absolutely no chance and won’t even turn up on the day! Throw your antepost dockets in the bin now. The dream is over! Western Diego 11/1 has a fair level of form but only fair in my book and I’d have no interest in backing him at 10/1 for this! If everything Willie has entered turned up for example he would only be what sixth string and he’d surely go off 20s plus on the day! Better Days Ahead 12/1 is much more like the type of horse I’d like for a Champion Bumper. The speedy classy type of horse actually rarely win these kinds of races in my opinion its the big strong staying chaser types that go out and grind the race out more often than not especially if they can get loose on the lead. He’d definitely enter my calculations but is he even Gordon Elliotts main horse for the bumper I think there’s another horse in the stable more interesting. The horse is No Time To Wait 20/1 who was a very impressive winner of a Down Royal bumper and while he may not have beaten much that day the style in which he did ut was very taking and in a race full of unknowns and its hard to weight up form I certainly wouldn’t mind having him on my side at that sort of price! Fascile Mode 25/1 is another with no chance for me having won a bumper that wasn’t much good at Leopardstown over Christmas and Tom Mullins looks to have missed the boat with this cash cow. He should have moved him on when the going was good the only way he is going in value is down. Encanto Bruno 16/1 is an admirable horse and I’m sure will win plenty of races for John McConnell but he’s no Festival Bumper winner I assure you of that. If he finishes 7th or 8th I’d say he will have ran his race. Queens Gamble 16/1 was the market leader for this race not so long ago because of a couple of course wins but she was badly found out last time and her form just doesn’t stack up for a race like this. To steal a phrase from Ted Walsh this is Cheltenham not Lourdes you won’t get any miracles here! The last horse I want to touch on is Chosen Witness 33/1 who was an impressive winner of a Limerick bumper over Christmas and there was an awful lot to like about the style he did it in that day. Now I can’t help but have been disappointed with how he ran at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival but I’m willing to give him a pass for that. Now he might not run here maybe Willie will take him back to Limerick for a Listed Bumper instead but if he did run here he would be of interest to me at least. He’s another who is the type of horse I’d look to have on side in this sort of race and bouncing back from last time I’d expect a much improved effort from him and he could be a lively one at a big price!

Selections: It’s For Me 4/1 (EW),                   No Time To Wait 20/1 (EW)

Dangers: Better Days Ahead 12/1 (EW),

Day three kicks off with the Turners Novices Chase and there is a hot favourite in here in the shape of Mighty Potter 11/8 who has done all he can over fences so far this season being a perfect three from three and though the market thinks he’s the standard setter and a banker for many I’m more than happy to take him on! He reminds me of Don Cossack in lots of ways a huge scopey galloping type who is not short of pace but in time will turn into a proper staying chaser. That said he is still learning on the job despite an impressive CV and I think his jumping leave him vulnerable here. Not to mention his 1 previous visit to the festival ended in major disappointment and he was pulled up at the top of the hill. I think the ground was a major factor in that and likely quick ground again its just another reason I’ll be putting my money elsewhere. Banbridge 4/1 is a former festival winner and is a fantastic jumper of a fence. He’s won at the track over fences over two miles but this trip is more his bag. He stayed on really well having been outpaced in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival bit I fear he just picked up the pieces after the ones infront had gone too quick. Good ground is essential to his chance and he’s a solid performer but I don’t think he’s good enough to win this. He might run into a place but I think that’s as much as we can expect from him and at a reasonably short price he wouldn’t be for me. Appreciate It 9/2 would really interest me in this stepping up to two and a half miles for the first time since his bumper win at Leopardstown a few seasons ago he’s a big robust staying chaser who’s class has been helping him get away with inadequate trips up to now! He never jumped like a two miler he’s a steady jumper just pops away and has plenty class to boot. He did well to hang in there as long as he did over two miles last time at the Dublin Racing Festival and I have no doubt he will reverse form here with Banbridge and by some ways at that! I can see the step up in trip bringing about huge improvement and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he went and won this very impressively indeed. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the chances of Journey With Me 12/1 in this race now admittedly I’d have rathered see him running over three miles as I think he is crying out for a step up in trip but connections who obviously know the horse better than me think he will cope with this just fine! He was had actually jumped and travelled just fine on chase debut at Gowran Park until getting in close to the fourth last and that seemed to dent his confidence and he ultimately came down three out which is a fence that has caught out plenty good horses in the past. He went onto break his maiden over fences then at Naas where he had a prolonged battle with Flame Bearer from flagfall. His jumping has improved with each start and was better than ever last time when he was beaten by Impervious at Punchestown. That was a good run as we know Impervious is a very accomplished chaser and they pulled miles clear of the third. I couldn’t knock him out of the first three and I think he will surprise plenty on the day. Briefly Stage Star 14/1 is the best of the British contingent likely to like up here but in all honesty it’s a poor bunch of Novices in Britain this season and ultimately he’s no better than a handicapper. He’s had a few runs in graded races since his Challow win as a novice hurdler and he has been disappointing a number of times! If he runs into a place he will have overachieved!

Selection: Appreciate It 9/2 (EW)

Danger: Journey With Me 12/1 (EW)

The Pertemps Handicap Hurldle is up next and with the change qualifying places reducing from six to four this season coupled with cancelled fixtures and the complete lack of qualifiers run in Ireland this field is the weakest and least competitive I’ve ever seen for the race. Shoot First 4/1 has headed the market for this race since the Autumn when he won one of the first qualifiers of the season over course and distance for Charles and Philip Byrnes. This seven year old by Westerner has seven hurdles runs under his belt and all of those have been in big fields which is a valuable bit of experience to have going into a race like this. Granted those races weren’t as good as this one but he would have learned plenty and they certainly will have done him no harm. He won here last time off a mark of 129 and he got an 10lb penalty for that win but we must also factor in Philip Byrnes was claiming 7lbs back then and can only claim  5lbs this time around so he’s effectively off a 12lbs higher mark. He’s a young unexposed horse and it’s hard to second guess Charles and what the horse has done in his career to date but he never stood out to me as being a terribly well handicapped horse or one to follow going forward at any point really. I would have Philip as a negative personally if like someone with a bit more experience especially at the Festival and we all know Charles is a genius but having his first start since October 22nd is a big ask in my opinion. People latched onto the Charles Byrnes factor back in October rather than form and substance. I think 4s is very short I’d have him primed up at double that and I’m happy to take him on. Perceval Legallois 6/1 is pretty bombproof in here. He rarely if ever runs a bad race and won and ultra competitive qualifier at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival. I’d have a preference in the main for anything that has won or run well in an Irish qualifier as with the poor field sizes in Britain there are alot of single figure fields and its a real shock to the system to young horses when they come into a big competitive festival handicap with three or four times as many runners and all the hustle and bustle that goes with races of this nature. He had almost developed into a bit of a nearly horse one you wouldn’t necessarily trust when the chips are down taking eight goes to win a maiden hurdle. But he did break his duck and has since run in four ultra competitive handicaps acquitting himself well in each start finishing second in the first two by a head and a nose respectively before taking in a pair of qualifiers where he finished fourth before getting a big pot in no uncertain style at the Dublun Racing Festival. He’s a progressive horse and I don’t think a mark of 140 is beyond him for a shrewd yard and in the green and gold of JP McManus who knows what he might still have up his sleeve. If there any horse in a race like this that would fall into the bracket of eachway bet to nothing he’s the one, I couldn’t have him out of the money! Maxxum 7/1 has a touch of class about him that you can’t attribute to many of this field. He’s been one of the most improved handicappers this season since switching from Eugene O’Sullivan to Gordon Elliott. His seasonal and yard debut came at Punchestown off of a mark of just 99 where he finished second but he improved massively for that and absolutely hacked up next time off 103 at Navan in a twenty two runner handicap by nine lenghts without having to come off the bridle. He got hit with a massive 17lb hike for that but it wasn’t enough to stop him winning even more impressively by sixteen lenghts at Leopardstown over Christmas when he literally took the field apart like I’ve never seen before in a twenty seven runner competitive handicap in Ireland. He got another massive 18lb hike for that effort and he was unable to follow up off of 138 but the race just didn’t unfold in his favour having met with alot of trouble around the home bend with horses coming back into his lap. I’d just draw a line through that run. He was still travelling well when he met with trouble and once his chance was gone he wasn’t given an overly hard time of things. The British handicapper has taken no chances though giving him an extra 7lbs to take his mark to 145 but I genuinely still feel it is within his compass. He stays and jumps well and as I’ve already mentioned he has a real touch of class. I think hes made for a race like this and granted a clear run this time he has to go close. Thanksforthehelp 6/1 represents the David Pipe and JP McManus combination and while he was an impressive winner of the final qualifier at Chepstow last weekend but I don’t think that was a particularly strong race. He won with the minimum of fuss off of a mark of 117 and I think the handicapper may have been kind given how well he won to just give him the 11lbs but as a six year old who has already had two wind ops in his career so far he obviously has a major hole in him and this is something that will hold back his progression in my opinion. I’ll be happy to give him a pass. Given I feel the race he won wasn’t particularly strong and the wind issues and price I think there’s enough not to like to justify opposing him. I think the best of the British may be Walking On Air 8/1 who is a big imposing individual from the Nicky Henderson yard. He’s an inexperienced horse having had only six lifetime starts he has always been held in high regard at home. So highly infact he was thrown into an Aintree Grade 1 Novice on only his second hurdles start. Things didn’t happen for him that day but he’s been progressing run to run this season and I think at Exeter last time he showed the best version of himself that we have seen to date. Now it was a small field that day but getting another win under his belt and the ease at which he did it was taking. He’s definitely well handicapped and with another step forward I can easily see him playing a major part in the finish. The Bosses Oscar 8/1 looks short enough in the market to me here. He was second in this off a mark of 151 a couple of seasons ago but for me that was at his peak and even then he was always a horse to run well but didn’t pick up the wins alot the way. He just seemed to lack something in a battle and that will always be the doubt in the back of my mind about him. He has a brief spell as a chaser last season which didn’t work out at all and a return to hurdles saw a return to some level of form last summer until a diabolical run behind Dallas Des Pictons at Cork at the start of August. He must have suffered an injury that day because he wasn’t seen then until early February at Musselburgh when totally unfancied in the market but he defied odds of 40/1 that day to get into third place and qualify for this. If the betting that day is anything to go by it seems they were hoping he had enough work done to get into the first four rather than confident but he did and having presumably come on plenty for that he has the back class to get involved here but I certainly wouldn’t like to be a backer at his current odds. Salvador Ziggy 9/1 brings summer form to the table here and I couldn’t have him in a fit. I don’t think he’s anywhere near being worth his current handicap mark and is ridiculously short in the market. It will be great for connections to have a nice day out with a runner at the Festival but that’s all it will be, a runner. Captain Morgs 12/1 looks a little overpriced in here and is another runner for the Nicky Henderson yard. He’s an admirable horse and always runs his race but in his career he’s been another one of those who seems to find one or two too good for him a little often for my liking. That said he’s predominantly been campaigned over two or two and a half miles. The step up to three miles for the first time on his most recent start at Cheltenham in December certainly worked that day but is he a reformed character now and the trip has turned out to be the key to unlocking all that untapped potential I don’t think so. Can he run well? Of course he can and it wouldn’t shock me if he made the frame but as regards winning I think others appeal more. The market seems have little value at the moment and I’d suspect more enticing prices on the day with plenty extra places so no need to rush into a bet just yet.

Selections: Maxxum 7/1 (EW), Perceval Legallois 6/1 (EW)

Danger: Walking On Air 8/1 (EW)

The Ryanair Chase is up next and I for one certainly won’t be backing Shishkin 8/11 for this. Sure he looked good at Ascot but the form of the race is highly suspect. Fakir D’oudaries didn’t go a yard and didn’t jump with any fluency and struggled to beat Aye Right who is only a handicapper and was running over a trip well short of his best. As for Pic D’orhy he has never looked like a Grade 1 operator and has never beaten a good horse. I doubt in a normal year I doubt very much we would even class him as a possible Grade 2 winner. He’s slightly better than a handicapper but not much so the jury is very much out for me. Blue Lord 11/2 would have a chance I think if it came up soft he’s a talented individual on his day and he will stay the trip as he proved in the Clonmel Oil. He ran well in the Arkle last season and started this term with two good wins but he still needs to bounce back to form after a poor effort last time. All in all he’s short enough in the market for me and wouldn’t interest me as a bet. Fury Road 10/1 won’t be everyone’s cup of tea in all honesty he’s a bit of a hound but he jumps well and will travel into it strongly. No doubt they will be trying to play his cards as late as possible as he doesn’t like to be infront too soon. He always had a big reputation at Gordons from early in his career but I don’t think he’s ever shown his full potential and while he will run well to a point he’s unlikely to be winning this. Janadil 8/1 made a very decent albeit belated return to action at Gowran Park last weekend where he got the better of Haut En Couleurs who always flatters to deceive and lures people in to thinking he’s more talented than he’s ever shown on the track. That said Janadil did win in good style having settled out the back throughout and jumped and travelled well throughout. When he was asked to quicken up by Rachel Blackmore the response was immediate and he went away to win very well at the line. Reports from the track would suggest he was carrying plenty of condition and that bodes well for the rest of the season! Willie Mullins suggested he might rather a cut in the ground but I don’t think it’s essential for him! The one concern I’d have is the dreaded bounce factor but aside from that he’s rock solid in a race in which he was runner up to Allaho in last season and we know Allaho is virtually unbeatable when it comes to the two and a half miles around Cheltenham over fences he’s just a machine. Now onto to what will come as a shock to many is my main fancy for the race and that is Envoi Allen 12/1 who was a good winner at Down Royal over three miles on decent ground back in November before disappointing in the King George at Kempton. I’d forgive him that run and wouldn’t be giving up on him. He ran well last season over an inadequate two miles in the Champion Chase last season and he has winning Festival form although a few seasons ago now winning an Champion Bumper and a Ballymore. I think the test of speed and stamina will suit him here and coming into the race fresh is a big bonus to me! I believe he holds the single best piece of chase form this season in the race and is a crazy price in a much more open race than people think. Shishkin coming back to form may well be all the media will be talking about before the race goes off but I think it will be Envoi Allen they will all be talking about after! Of the rest Fakir D’oudaries 14/1 doesn’t look in the same form as pervious seasons and I’d be surprised if he turned up at Cheltenham at all and French Dynamite 14/1 as much as I like the horse he’s not a Grade 1 performer and will find this race much too hot for his liking!

Selection: Envoi Allen 12/1 (EW)

Danger: Janadil 8/1 (EW)

The Stayers Hurdle looks a cracking race this year and it’s great to see for now at least all the main players are standing due to turn up. Blazing Khal 11/4 would have been my early season fancy for the race but he’s had enough issues and short enough now that I’d be happy to let him be. His Novice form from last season is fine and he has course form but he hasn’t had a proper test in open company yet. The Boyne wasn’t much of a test now and though he won well in the end beating Meet And Greet is nothing to write home about. Like most of Charles Byrnes runners this week i suspect they will be shorter in the market ghan they should and with Philip up with his obvious lack or experience and tactical nous at the Festival and in Grade 1s I’d see him as a negative on these highly fancied runners. If Philip and the shroods don’t stop him the weight of Icys money surely will and every Novena hes said and every candle “Byrned” in the Church of the Resurrection from October won’t be able to raise him off the floor when this gets beat! I’d be very very keen on Teahupoo 4/1 for this race. He was a very good Juvenile a couple of seasons ago before putting in a big performance pre Cheltenham last season at Gowran to make people think he was a Champion Hurdle contender. He kicked off this season putting Honeysuckle and Klassical Dream to the sword in a really good renewal of the Hattons Grace before putting up a devastating performance in the Galmoy last time! People will be hung up on the idea he needs soft ground but I genuinely don’t think that’s the case. I think he needed soft or heavy ground over two miles to bring his stamina into play but over three miles I think he will handle all kinds of ground and he has more than a touch of class to go with all the stamina he possesses to cruise away from these up the hill! He would be one of my strongest fancies of the week and I would expect a Thistlecrack like performance out of him in this race where he simply blows them all away! Marie’s Rock 9/2 would have a big chance in this race if she turned up but I don’t think it would be Nickys style to throw her into a race like this. Home By The Lee 6/1 I’d give no chance to really. He benefited from a slow pace on tacky ground at Leopardstown last time and people can say all they want oh he was only beaten 6L or whatever in the Stayers last year but they absolutely crawled round that day I’d have kept tabs on them. All he achieved at Leopardstown was he beat a couple of handicappers and a horse in Flooring Porter that fades if he doesn’t get things soft early. Anything that raced off the pace that day had no chance from an early stage on what was tacky ground. On good ground in a better race at Cheltenham I think he will be exposed for what he is. The 50/1 he was available at for his Navan victory a couple of starts back is much more realistic than his current price thats for sure. I for one couldn’t believe last season that yet again Flooring Porter 6/1 was given an even softer lead than he had gotten on his way to his first Stayers Hurdle victory. The horse is talented yet but he needs to get it all his own way to be seen at his best. Since the Festival last year he’s been well below par getting beaten at Aintree and twice this season at Navan and Leopardstown. He’s also had a setback since Christmas which would be another negative to have against him. People know how to beat him now and he will get plenty pace pressure on the day so I don’t see him being a factor at the business end of the race. Gold Tweet 14/1 was a good winner of the Cleeve but I think he was flattered by a slow pace and the lack of any decent Stayers in Britain. I think that was his day in the sun and I certainly wouldn’t be worried about him worrying anything towards the head of the market. Klassical Dream 10/1 has some unfinished business in this race. I don’t think the hold up tactics employed last year suited the horse and the way the race was run only added to his problems. He came there with what looked like a threatening run turning in but ultimately faded out of things tamely. He’s had a much different prep this year and whether by design or not he is a much better horse fresh and if he lines up here I think he will have a definite chance. At 10/1 he would look a little overpriced to me especially if he lines up on the day. As for the rest of the runners they really come under the banner of has beens and handicappers at this stage unfortunately and I wouldn’t have any of them on my mind!

Selection: Teahupoo 4/1 (EW)

Dangers: Klassical Dream 10/1 (EW), Marie’s Rock 9/2 (if she turned up)

The Plate is race five on the day and its a handicap chase over two and a half miles. So Scottish 9/2 has been a long term fancy of mine for this race since his run behind Boothill at Ascot in November over an inadequate trip. He jumped well and travelled until the taps were turned about half a mile from home he was just tapped for toe and the leaders got away from him before staying on all the way to the line. From seemingly looking like he was going nowhere that day he actually stayed on so well he was only beaten a lenght and a quarter at the line. That was a big effort against a horse who went on to frank that form in plenty graded novice events since. He represents shrewd connections and has been no doubt targeted at this race for quite a while. He has some rock solid bumper form in the book and although he lost his was a bit over hurdles I’d suggest that hurdles were just a bit of an inconvenience to him and chasing has really seen him progress at a rate of knots. He’s an inexperienced chaser with just three chase runs to him name but he has acquitted himself impeccably on all three starts and it’s plain to see from last time he’s progressed again. I have no idea how high he can go but I think hes every bit as much and more of a handicap certainty as The Shunter was a couple of years ago. Let’s just hope my confidence is well placed now.  Adamantly Chosen 8/1 is next in the market but for the life of me I can’t figure out why. I’d be shocked if he didn’t run in a Grade 1 rather than a handicap for start and secondly he’s a serial loser. Not to mention the Grade 1 races he’s been placed in of late have been some of the worst Grade 1s I’ve ever seen or at least in Ireland and hes been handicapped to the absolute hilt for it. He would be one of the first on my list to oppose if he turned up here. Haut En Couleurs 8/1 is another Willie Mullins inmate show is a serial loser and while he’s flattered to deceive a few times in decent races he always finds a way to get beat. You couldn’t trust him to put his head infront and possibly most telling of all is that despite Mullins affinity with entering horses in every race known to man Cheltenham seemed to be an after thought since Thurles. That day he looked like he could beat Fakir D’oudaries when he jumped the last but knuckled on landing and was since highly fancied in at Gowran Park but couldn’t put his head infront again. I wouldn’t back him with stolen money and I’d advise you steer well clear. Il Ridoto 8/1 comes here on the back of a course and distance win in January where he beat what looked a very well handicapped horse in the shape of Fugitif. They pulled sixteen lenghts clear of the third that day in what looked a decent handicap chase. Personally I was surprised he won that day having never struck me before then as being a horse with much wriggleroom in his handicap mark. He had run well in a few big handicaps over this two and a half mile trip this season prior to that win but he never looked like the winner any day. He left that form well behind last time but can he back it up off an 8lb higher mark I’m not so sure. He may be one for the pile that runs well but without ever threatening running on late once again. Balco Coastal 10/1 comes here on the back of being second behind Gerri Colombe in a Sandown Grade 1 last time but that race was an incredibly poor race for the grade. The trip that day or the ground weren’t particularly suitable for Gerri Colombe for that matter and if he couldn’t get the better of him that day then he isn’t worth his rating of 151. I couldn’t have him on my mind for that race. His only chase victory came off 19lbs lower at Kempton and this will be a totally different test that he won’t be up to! Stage Star 10/1 was a good winner over course and distance last time beating Datsalrightgino and I’d suggest given he is the same price as Balco Coastal he has far more going for him here. Just on a like through panic attack who ran against both horses when she won Stage Star gave much more weight to her and beat her by much further. Now I wouldn’t be gone on Stage Star for this race given he likes to get his own way infront doesn’t look particularly well handicapped now off of 152. He will jump and travel well but what he finds when push comes to shove is a completely different matter. If he is taken on and doesn’t get the lead he is also likely to sulk and could be pulled up. There’s much better options as a bet at a price if you want to take on the favourite. Midnight River 11/1 is another that will be popular with the betting public in Britain at least with the form Dan Skelton has been in plundering many of these big handicaps all season. I think he will need a cut in the ground and a proper test to be seen to best effect. Up to now I think he’s been getting away with the two and a half miles with a workable mark but ultimately I see him as a three miler going forward so on likely good ground at a good gallop I can see him being put on his head early and his chance will be gone. Fugitif 12/1 of those at a double figure price would interest me more than most. He had some very good form over two miles without winning a whole pile before he stepped up in trip and that seems to have been the key to for him. He was a very good winner at Chepstow on Welsh National day before running really well behind Il Ridoto last time over course and distance. I think the race at Chepstow may have left more of a mark than the had thought and going to Cheltenham a bit fresher now and given the pace he has and the quality of his jumping if he got loose on the lead he could be very hard to peg back. He would definitely be of interest to me at the prices. Datsalrightgino 14/1 wouldn’t be without a chance either if he turned up having been runner up here behind Stage Star. He’s a talented young horse that remains unexposed and a reproduction of that run would see him get involved at the business end. He ran well in a graded Novice Chase at Kempton recently when he finished behind Solo having conceded first run. If Gavin Sheehan had been a bit more proactive that day I’d be confident he would have won and with a better ride a bit closer to the pace here I’d see him outrunning his odds even if turning over the favourite to me looks a bit of an insurmountable task.

Selection: So Scottish 9/2 (EW)

Dangers: Fugitif 12/1 (EW), Datsalrightgino 14/1 (EW)

The Mares Novices Hurdle is up next and it looks like a real competitive affair. Luccia 13/8 is a short priced favourite in here and I personally couldn’t have her. I think the Novice form in Britain particularly in the Mares is particularly weak and what she has done to date amounts to very little. He’s a big scopey filly who will have no problem jumping a fence in time but as a hurdler I think she does things all a bit slow and her jumping is suspect. I also think quick ground would be a negative to her chances. For me it’s nice to see a horse like her taking up such a big chunk of the market because it makes what a do fancy more of a price or at least it does in theory. Ashroe Diamond 7/2 is another mare I’d be happy to take on in this race. The form of her run in the Royal Bond is suspect and she was never put in the race at Leopardstown over Christmas just ridden to pick up the pieces to try get a bit of black type for her trainer who still owns the mare and is just leasing her to the syndicate. She won a Grade 3 last time back in Mares company at Fairyhouse when the race was run at a slow pace and she had the most natural pace to scramble home in what was a sprint up the straight. She got a 5lb penalty for that win which is also a hindrance to her chances. Night And Day 7/1 was an impressive winner of a Clonmel maiden hurdle back in January but in truth that was a terrible race. She made her hurdle and yard debut for Willie Mullins in a Fairyhouse Grade 1 towards the end of last season when she was tailed off. She’s a big imposing mare who looks like she will appreciate a good dig in the ground. It’s hard to weight up her form as the run at the end of last season you can put a line through that and with the lack of strength and depth to the maiden hurdle win we are a little in the dark with her but with those unknowns coupled with the likely decent ground she will encounter at the Festival she’s another ill be taking on. Lot Of Joy 8/1 is another Willie Mullins inmate and has had 3 starts over hurdles to date finishing second to Inothewayurthinkin at Cork before going down narrowly to Deep Cave at Leopardstown over Christmas. She got her day in a maiden hurdle beating a weak field in Fairyhouse but she’s shown plenty of ability in maiden hurdles against the boys to suggest she can be competitive here if her jumping holds up! She’s a high class operator on the flat having finished third in the Irish Cesarewich of a mark of 93 so she has plenty good racing experience under her belt with could be invaluable here. She has an eachway chance and I wouldn’t be surprised if she was the choice of Paul Townend with Patrick likely to take the ride on Ashroe Diamond. You Wear It Well 10/1 is an interesting runner for Jamie Snowden and for me she’s the best of the British in this and that’s including the favourite on a like through She’s A Saint I’d have her any day of the week over Luccia and your getting several times the price. She is four wins and two seconds from six runs with a bumper win and three hurdles wins to her name and add to that a second in the Challow behind Hermes Allen. He’s a tough mare who’s got plenty experience and I think she’s more than capable of getting involved. I’d be happy to nominate her as an eachway play in this. Magical Zoe 10/1 would be a poignant winner of this race named in memory of Jack De Bromhead who was so cruelly lost last summer. His father Henry trains this mare and she’s the perfect three from three in her career so far winning a bumper for Barry Fitzgerald before being snapped up by Henry De Bromhead for current connections. She hasn’t disappointed them yet winning a maiden hurdle at Wexford before picking up a Grade 3 Mares Novice Hurdle at Down Royal. She showed a good turn of foot that day and powered clear up the run in. That race has worked out well since and she shouldn’t be forgotten about here just because she hasn’t run since that Grade 3 victory at Down Royal in November. Halka Du Tabert 14/1 has long been a strong fancy of mine for this race. This is a really talented mare and I believe she is the best novice mare we have in Ireland. She’s got a really high cruising speed and she s real strong stayer. She won a bumper back in November where she really had to get down and battle hard coming from off the pace. I think connections learned alot about her that day and on hurdles debut at Naas just before Christmas they set their stall out early and she made all at a ferocious gallop from the drop of the flag. She looked a sitting duck for something to come from off the pace that day and Eabha Grace for Willie Mullins came travelling strongly in the straight but her challenge didn’t last long as she quicker up and went again to scorch clear by eleven lenghts. That day was the day she made me feel like Kenny Alexander had another proper mare to go to war with. That high cruising speed and being such a strong stayer she could get plenty of her rivals in trouble around here and though its two miles the new course lends itself to a stamina test. If she got loose on the lead she could put plenty of these to the sword. The last day she was beaten about two and a half lenghts by Ashroe Diamond but the pace was steady and the sprint in the straight didn’t suit her. That may have been a blessing in disguise though as she comes here now without a 5lb penalty like Ashroe Diamond, Luccia and Magical Zoe will have to carry. Anything like that is a plus and I fancy this mare in a big way. The ground would be the one concern she need Ms to prove herself on a sound surface but I don’t think it will inconvenience her much. If any rain did come it would be a plus but regardless she’s a bet here at a nice price. Jetara 14/1 is a well bred mare from the family of Jezki but she has been flattered in her recent runs over hurdle in Leopardstown over Christmas behind High Definition and behind Ashroe Diamond at Fairyhouse last time both races turned into a sprint and she was well positioned and is blessed with plenty natural pace. Had those races been run at a proper gallop I think she’d have been badly shown up and I don’t see her winning a race like this any time soon. Princess Zoe 14/1 is a high class mare off the flat but hurdling was a real afterthought for her. While she deadheated in Punchestown on hurdle debut that was over two and a half miles and the mare she dead heated with had only been well beaten on her only pervious start and I don’t think the form is up to much. Now she may well come on plenty for that run but she will need to and I fancy thete are better more progressive Mares with more potential on here. She looks up against it to me!

Selections: Halka Du Tabert 14/1 (EW), Magical Zoe 10/1 (EW)

Danger: You Wear It Well 10/1 (EW)

The Kim Muir brings the curtain down on day three and only a couple of months ago I’d have said you were insane if you told me that Stumptown 4/1 would be at the head of the market for this when he was getting beat off a mark of 111 around Thurles. They used to hold him up during his races and his jumping used to suffer because of it. On his last two starts at Thurles and most recently at Sandown he was ridden up on the pace and his jumping has been absolutely faultless. He won that day at Sandown off of a mark of 125 and he will run here off 135. On his Sandown running that won’t be enough to stop him and he will be tough to beat if turning up in the same form. Mr Incredible 5/1 has plenty ability but you just couldn’t trust him to apply himself and put his best foot forward. He’s given trouble at the start before and he’s more than capable of making a horrific mistake or two in any round of jumping. He may well be the most talented horse in the field but given how ungenuine he is I couldn’t back him with stolen money even if he did have Patrick Mullins on his back. Minella Crooner 8/1 looked a decent novice hurdler last season but the wheels have come off this season over fences. He’s been ultimately disappointing and hasn’t gone forward like you’d expect. He’s a dower stayer so a real test of stamina would be right up his street but I feel he would need slow ground to have any chance but I could be wrong. What Gordon runs here will be interesting and with Jamie Codd up potentially who knows there could be a miracle but I’d be staggered if there wasn’t a better or more progressive chaser in this field to take care of him easily off his mark. Angels Dawn 9/1 would have plenty supporters here on the back of travelling well when coming down late on in an Irish Grand National Trial last time. She’s another that I think slow ground would be important for and she’s found it hard to get her head infront in the past. She’s a mare that needs to be played as late as possible and in a big field like this at the Festival that’s easier said than done. She’s very opposable at the prices in my opinion and though she will have plenty supporters I won’t be one of them. Dunboyne 10/1 ran an absolute stormer last time in the Thyestes at Gowran Park behind Carefully Selected. They had a ding dong battle from the back of the last all the way up to the line and he went down by the narrowest of margins in the end. That was his first time over three miles over fences and first time in a handicap over fences also. He really seemed at home there and he remains a chaser with plenty potential and I’d be confident he has a decent staying handicap in him. If Jamie Codd rode him here over Minella Crooner I’d be very interested in him and no doubt he’d go off shorter than the 10/1 currently available. I was surprised to see Next Destination 14/1 such a big price in the market for this. I know he’s a horse that has had his issues and has been off the track a long time now but he’s in good hands with Nicky Henderson and he will be fully tuned up if he runs. As a horse who’s had plenty problems it could be important to strike while the iron is hot and fresh off a 728 day break could be the time to catch him. He chased Galvin home in the National Hunt Chase when last seen and we have since seen Galvin go on to win Grade 1s in open company and also place in a Gold Cup. He gets in here off a mark of 145 and while he’s eleven years old he hasn’t many miles on the clock. On his day he’s by far the classiest and most talented of these and at 14/1 I’d be happy to take a chance on him in this field. I suspect he will run a very big race! Amirite 14/1 would be a very interesting contender if he ran here off a mark of 142. He has a couple of really good runs under his belt over fences this season. He was still going really well in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown over Christmas before Jack Kennedy pushed Rachel Blackmore out of the saddle I think he would have gone close that day. He backed that run up at Naas last time when third not beaten far behind Thedevilscoachman and Ramillies. I think a mark of 142 underestimates him and he would definitely be of interest if he runs. Royal Thief 16/1 was an impressive winner off a 782 day break last time at Punchestown. He was a decent novice hurdler back in the day and hasn’t many miles on the clock relative to his age. I’m not sure how many if any Kilbeggan Beginers Chase winners ever won a race at the Cheltenham Festival but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if this horse got involved. He’s unexposed and the style of his win last time suggests much of the old ability is still there. If he doesn’t bounce which is always a possibility off such a long lay off I could definitely see the case for supporting him at about 16/1.

Selections: Stumptown 4/1 (EW), Next Destination 14/1 (EW)

Danger: Dunboyne 10/1 (EW)

The fourth and final day kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle where Willie Mullins holds all the aces and Lossiemouth 15/8 heads the market. She was a ready winner in graded company on her first Irish start despite not being the stable first string on the day at Fairyhouse. She cruised through what was a slowly run race before coming to challenge two out and showing a good turn of foot and to bolt clear of her rivals to win.in taking fashion. Her jumping was also a big asset on the day and she is rock solid in that department. He went kn to back up that victory in Leopardstown over Christmas but met trouble in running next time at the Dublin Racing Festival and for all she was hampered I wouldn’t be certain she will reverse the form. The horse who took advantage of Lossiemouths bad fortune that day was stable companion Gala Marceau 5/1. That was her second run for Mullins having been a distant second behind the aforementioned Lossiemouth over Christmas on her Irish debut. She clearly progressed alot for that initial outing and theres nothing saying she cant step forward again. She is a really tough mare with plenty toe and she still showed real signs of inexperience at the Dublin Racing Festival running extremely keenly in Danny Mullins hands the whole way but it didn’t stop her pouring the pressure on her rivals as they left the back straight and headed for home. She stretched clear all the way to the line and even though Lossiemouth made ground on the run to the last Gala Marceau went away again up the run-in. I was a backer of hers on the day and in all honesty I thought at halfway she had pulled her chance away given how keen she was but the fact she won in spite of herself I think is testament to what a talented mare she really is. The harder they go in this race the better it will be for Gala Marceau as it will help her settle and if she can switch off she’s a danger to all! Blood Destiny 15/8 completes the big three for Mullins and though he hasn’t Grade 1 form to his name he has been very impressive in both his wins over hurdles first in a maiden at Cork and then in Fairyhouse shen he ran out an 18L winner from Common Practice and Nusret. He had everything his own way that day racing in splendid isolation throughout but there’s no denying he has massive potential. He jumps and stays very  well and seems a very straight forward ride just buck out and go from the front. He won’t hang around he will make the race a real stamina test and could be hard to pass up that Cheltenham hill. Paul Townend has a very difficult decision to make on which one of the three to ride but I’m going to go against the grain here and suggest he rides Blood Destiny. Being two from two and his style of racing he seems to be the most straightforward of the three and possibly the one with the most potential going forward beyond Juvenile hurdles and into next season. His style of racing in my opinion would be a positive over this course and distance and if he can turn this into a real stamina test he could just take Lossiemouths turn of foot out of the equation. Gala Marceau in my mind could his biggest danger benefitting from the strong gallop to help her settle and I certainly have no doubts about her staying. Barring accidents or a complete blowout I can’t see anything else getting involved. Comfort Zone 10/1 has taken well to hurdles with plenty good efforts to his name including a couple of wins in two of the main British trials for this race but in all truth the form of those don’t amount to much and he won’t be good enough to trouble the top three. Of the British I still believe that Scriptwriter 40/1 is still the best Juvenile in Britain despite a shocking run at Kempton in the Adonis. His jumping was nothing short of diabolical making mistakes at almost every hurdle but that wasn’t his true running. I’d draw a line through that run and if her turned up here I’d trust Milton Harris to have him spot on. He will be ridden cold to come home well late and pick up as many pieces as possible. He’s a real rouge of a horse so he couldn’t arrive on the scene late enough. If anything is to get in amongst them at a wild price I think this is the horse! If he runs of course!

Selection: Blood Destiny 15/8

Danger: Gala Marceau 5/1 (EW)

The County Hurdle is always an ultra competitive affair and has thrown up some young unexposed handicap blots the last few years like Saint Roi and more recently State Man but also his been a happy hunting ground for some old favourites like Arctic Fire who towards the end of their careers having been extensively campaigned in Grade 1 company they drop into a handicap and find an opportunity to show the old fire still burns if only not quite as brightly as before but the heart and want to win are still there. Its always an intriguing puzzle to try solve and in recent years has been very kind to to people backing those at the head of the market. This season Filey Bay 6/1 heads the market for a man in Emmet Mullins that the bookies always want to keep onside when he has a nice handicapper on his hands. Filey Bay was a shrewd purchase by Emmet Mullins and Paul Byrne in the last twelve months out of an almost unheard of yard here in Ireland. The two lads saw potential and they were spot on. They took Filey Bay to Doncaster on his first start for the yard and he duly obliged off a mark of 117 before going in again under a 7lb penalty under a week later. That’s when JP McManus and Frank Berry swooped in to purchase the rapidly progressing young handicapper and he ran a stormer in the green and gold in the Betfair Hurdle just going down by about a lenght to Aucunrisque and the two pulled miles clear of the third home. I’ve no doubt this horse hasn’t shown his full hand yet and it would be foolish to discount him. He’s a good jumper and strong traveller who’s well up for a fight too he seems to have everything you want in a top level handicapper and best of all he still remains relatively unexposed. He’s a player that’s for sure. Pembroke 8/1 is another young horse in here with bags of potential as a handicapper. He represents the Dan Skelton yard who have a great record in this race and he’s one of the best target trainers around. Pembroke is two from four over hurdles so far with only five lifetime starts to his name. He came on leaps and bounds for his hurdle debut at Chepstow behind Tahmuras in November before fascile wins at Wetherby and Ludlow. He’s since ran in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January where he was stepped up to two and a half miles for the first time. He travelled like a winner most of the ways before ultimately getting outstayed up the hill. The drop back to two miles will be right up his street and I expect him to go well. If there is any concern to have it may just be that he might lack in some battle hardened experience. Alot of the British Novice races are uncompetitive affairs with horses learning little in two and three runs but to counter that at least he had to battle last time over two and a half miles and though he was beaten maybe they wanted a battle just to toughen him up a bit because winning raves under penalties on the bridle is no good for these horses development. Hunters Yarn 8/1 is another towards the head of the market and he would have his chance in here but he doesn’t particularly look like a horse who would be terribly well treated in this company just a bit raw and needs to brush up on his jumping a bit. He looks like he will take in the Supreme instead anyway so we will leave him to one side for now. Gin Coco 10/1 would have a great chance in here for Harry Fry and I’d say this has been the plan since they were second in the Greatwood by in November to I Like To Move It. He’s a young unexposed horse but he has valuable experience in big handicaps at the Punchestown Festival last season and again in the Greatwood. He acquitted himself very well both days finishing second on both occasions. He skipped the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury due to the unseasonably quick ground recently but I’d see that as no bad thing. Harry Fry is a very patient trainer and I’m sure he will have Gin Coco spot on for the day. He’s well worth keeping on side! Sharjah 12/1 could be one for the old boys dropping back into handicaps that I alluded to earlier. He has plenty back class and Willie Mullins has done well with horses of a similar ilk in this race in the past. Whether he will go to the Champion Hurdle or come here I don’t know but he has looked a spent force in Grade 1s so far this season and after a hard race in the Gowran Park recently where he was beaten on soft ground by Fil Dor I’d have a slight concern that that may have left its mark. He has an eachway squeak and I wouldn’t be shocked if he were to win this. Path D’Oroux 12/1 I couldn’t have for this race I don’t think he jumps well enough or has the class to travel in a race of this calibre. He had a lofty enough reputation at the start of the season but he was embarrassed in a few Grade 1 Novice Hurdles that we know weren’t very strong races by now and I don’t think it was a case of him being handicapped I think he handicapped himself and that’s as good as he is. The only reason he is the price he is is solely down to being trained by Gavin Cromwell and people are trying to convince themselves that anything he likes that disappoints must inevitably be a plot which just isn’t the case. I’ve given up on him and I suggest you do the same. Winter Fog 12/1 is one of the rare exceptions of horses that have improved for a move away from Emmet Mullins. I always felt three miles was beyond him and he travelled well in Leopardstown and again in the Pertemps at the Festival last season before failing to finish out his race very strongly. The trip now has been proven to have been the issue and while I thought personally he was more of a two and a half miler he proved last time at Leopardstown over Christmas that he has tons of pace and is perfectly at home over two miles. It looked ideal for him that day when he shot clear of the field in the home straight. That performance was very taking and although he will likely have a fair chunk of weight to carry he looks a classy individual capable of carrying it. He’s unexposed at this trip and he could well prove better than just a handicapper. At the priced he’s a fair eachway bet at double figures. Aucunrisque 16/1 had his day in the sun winning the Betfair Hurdle a couple of weeks ago when everything Chris Gordon was running was winning and he certainly won’t be repeating the feat here. Ballyadam 20/1 ran really well in this race last season and had a good pipe opener at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival. That run should put he spot on for this even if the handicapper has been extremely harsh putting him up 4lbs from the mark he ran off in the race last season. The anti Irish sentiment is strong at British Handicapping HQ!

Selections: Gin Coco 10/1 (EW), FileyBay 6/1 (EW)

Danger: Winter Fog 12/1 (EW)

The Albert Bartlett is up next and I’ve had a major fancy in this race for a long time! That horse of course is Hiddenvalley Lake 8/1 who I believe has everything you need to win a race like this! He is a thoroughly stayer and will love the nice ground. A big field and strong pace will be no issue for him either and the occasion certainly won’t get to him. He has the most tremendous attitude and he’s as quiet as a lamb. You could ride him anywhere in a race and put him to sleep. His biggest asset is probably his jumping he’s low and accurate and so quick away from the back of his hurdles and that’s something you can’t say about many stayers. He also has a turn of foot which he showed to great effect at Cork when winning a Grade 3 on Hilly Way Chase day when putting the race to bed in a matter of strides. The second that day Cool Survivor ran well to frank the form since. Hiddenvalley Lake had a break since that Cork effort before returning at Clonmel in recent weeks when going down narrowly to his stable companion Montys Star who is a half brother to Gold Cup winner Minella Indo. Hiddenvalley Lake was giving away weight all round that day and the slow pace didn’t show him to best effect in tacky ground on return from a layoff. That run should have put him spot on for this and I expect him to be very hard to beat. As for Montys Star 10/1 he undoubtedly has plenty of ability and is a big unit who will no doubt appreciate a fence in time. He’s short on experience and still babyish in how he races but with the pedigree he has we know this kind of test should be right up his street. He took a huge step forward from his debut in Navan to go on and break his maiden in that Grade 3 in Clonmel last time! I just feel this kind of race will come too soon in his career to be seen to best effect and I’ll be happy to go against him in this one. Embassy Gardens 11/2 heads the market here and for me he is a horrible price! I can’t understand why he’s favourite aside from representing Willie Mullins there is no reason he should be anywhere near the price he is. He was beaten in two maiden hurdles before winning a terribly weak Novice Hurdle at Thurles where though he won by a long ways he only managed to beat a free running 109 rated mare who went far too quick for her own good over a trip she doesn’t get and somehow he’s found himself favourite for a Cheltenham Grade 1? Give me strength! If he was 100/1 in this race he wouldn’t interest me and he’s worth avoiding like the plague. Three Card Brag 8/1 would have a chance in here if the ground came up on the soft side. He’s a really strong stayer and relentless galloped. The further he goes the better he will be and he could develop into a real National Hunt Chase horse for next season. My one fear would be if the ground came up good he might be taken off his feet. He’s been acquitting himself well over shorter all through the season and the extra distance here is just what he needs. He is also handicap qualified having four hurdles runs under his belt so he could go elsewhere so just keep an eye out for that. Corbetts Cross 8/1 is plenty short enough in the betting for my liking which is clearly affected by the recent change in ownership and trainer with the horse moving to Emmet Mullins to run in the Paul Byrne silks. The horse is another who needs soft ground to be seen to best affect but I don’t think he’s up to proper  graded company anyway. Connections don’t seem too keen to head to Cheltenham with him this season which would look a good move to me there’s some nice options for him at Fairyhouse at Easter and I think that’s where he’s is likely to go with a better chance of getting his ground there also. Favouri De Champdou 10/1 has done very little wrong in his hurdles career to date winning three times already this season. Two of those victories came at Thurles before he took a step up in class in his stride at Limerick over Christmas in what has been a really decent trial for this race in the past. While it wasn’t the strongest renewal of the race he could on beat what was in front of him on the day and having coped well with conditions he forged clear to win well. Being by Saddler Maker he’s another that will appreciate an ease in the ground but I wouldn’t say its essential for him and the stronger the test the more he will come into his own. I would just fear he lacks the class for a Festival Grade 1 but time will tell. Absolute Notions 12/1 is yet another toward the head of the market for Gordon Elliott who has a strong hand in this race and this may well be the best he’s got. He was a good winner of a maiden hurdle at Punchestown beating Deep Cave who won a Leopardstown maiden himself over Christmas. Absolute Notions stepped up to Grade 2 level on his second hurdles start finishing in behind Inthepocket and Three Card Brag on deep ground at Naas before seemingly benefitting for a return to a sounder surface at the Dublin Racing Festival when staying on from well off the pace to chase home Good Land and in the process confirming his maiden run against Deep Cave. He’s a tough hardy horse and I think he can run really well here to maybe even give his owners a 1,2. Cool Survivor 16/1 would have place claims at best in a race like this but I would expect him to take advantage of a decent looking handicap mark in a Martin Pipe rather than being chucked in at the deep end here. Sandown Clegane 10/1 is too short for me in this field and I see him as an overrated horse with the Paul Nolan fanboys! Yes fanboys you know who you are. He’s a grand horse don’t get me wrong but he will find his level in handicaps in due course. Running fourth or fifth here would be a great run in my opinion and I certainly wouldn’t be parting with any cash on him at those sorts of odds.

Selection: Hiddenvalley Lake 8/1 (EW)

Dangers: Absolute Notions 12/1 (EW) Three Card Brag 8/1 (EW)

The Gold Cup is an ultra competitive renewal this season with more strength in depth and class to in than recent years on paper but whether we will still be saying that after they pass the post we will just have to wait and see. Galopin Des Champs 13/8 wouldn’t be for me in this race at all, not only on a price basis but his overall profile is not something I would go for in a race like this. Plenty people have been raving about him this season from beating a missing in action Fakir D’oudaries who seems a shadow of his former self this season and a decent handicapper in the John Durkan to beating a bunch of stayers, has beens and a rouge in the shape of Fury Road in a sprint in the Irish Gold Cup. He doesn’t seem the horse that lit up the novice chase division last season in my mind so far this season. Some of the old spark and exuberance is missing and I’d rather seen that’s still there in his jumping or in how he goes through his races to have any confidence in him but I’ve not seen any of that this season. Now he may well spring to life at the Festival and we will all be lauding his superiority over the division in the immediate aftermath of the race but I’m happy to take him on here. Last seasons Grand National winner Noble Yeats 7/1 is next in the market and that looks short to me. For all he is an admirable horse and a good National winner this is a different level altogether. On quick ground especially I can see him getting outpaced and not being able to keep with them. He was on and off the bridle at Aintree in the Many Clouds and he hit a flat spot in the Cotswolds Chase which cost him the race before staying on better than anything up the hill. He will have go take a big step forward from that to be winning a race like this. I could see the angle of backing him eachway if the ground was on the slow side and he was 16s plus but at less than half that it’s a definite pass from me! A Plus Tard 7/1 is the reigning and defending champion and with the help of God hopefully he will get back to defend his crown on the day! He was the most impressive Gold Cup winner I’ve ever seen from the back of the last until the line. I’ve never seen a horse quicken like he did to storm clear at the end of what is the pinnacle of our sport. That in itself speaks volumes for the talent he possessed but has he still got a performance like that in him? I’m not sure. We haven’t exactly gotten much evidence to go by since. He went to Haydock for his seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase and he was a major disappointment for whatever reason on the day he just wasn’t himself and we’ve heard the excuses but simply I always go back to how hard it is for a horse to come back and even run in the following Gold Cup nevermind defend their title. Looking back there are so many Gold Cup winners who were never the same again after this race. The demands of the test really takes these warriors to a place that just seems to empty them or at least just makes them not want to exert themselves in the same way anymore. We know he has the ability but whether he still wants to do it or not is another thing. For that reason he is a very hard sell as a bet. Of course after the race if he should win plenty will point to how obvious it was he won it last year not beaten far the year before he clearly was a crazy price but laws of probability say he won’t come back and he won’t win and while I’d love to see it for Rachel and Henry after the year they have all had I will have to oppose him here. Bravemansgame 8/1 was a good winner of the King George last time but the race was a fairly weak renewal in all honesty that fell apart around him. His main challenger that day L’homme Presse departed at the last that day having jumped out to his left the whole way and is now out for the season. Whether that injury is an explanation for the jumping I don’t know but the horse clearly wasn’t right and so the form we have to take forward is a not 100% L’homme Presse was running Bravemansgame close over a course and distance that was made for this horse. His perfect set of circumstances and he primed to run for his life and he did the business yes but there’s enough of negatives surrounding everything else for me to say its a weak piece of form. Add to that he’s never showed an affinity for this track and couple that with the extra distance I would think anyone mad to contemplate backing him at such a short price. If he was running in the Ryanair I’d could see the angle but not here not this race not the title of a Gold Cup Winner he’s not up to carrying that mantle and I don’t think he’s up to getting a place either for that matter. Stattler 8/1 I can see him running a really big race here. No matter what the ground I don’t think it will bother him. The test of a Gold Cup should be right up his street too he will be staying on as well as anything late. Whether he has the class to win maybe not but he will run really well and could run into a place. I wouldn’t worry about being beaten so far by Galopin Des Champs last time at Leopardstown that race couldn’t have been run any different to a Gold Cup and it was the perfect set up for Galopin but this will be so very different. He’s a former festival winner in last seasons National Hunt Chase which is always a plus albeit he was a class apart that day but its never a bad thing to have under your belt and I’m sure he will bring his “A” game to the Festival again! I don’t think Conflated 12/1 gets enough respect for what a talented horse he is. He’s certainly one of the most underrated horses in the field. It may have taken him a while to progress into a Grade 1 performer but he is there now and he is trained by a master who will have him primed for the day. He’s a dual Grade 1 winner now and he takes the field apart in the final third of his races he injects pace and uses his jumping to put his rivals under pressure and take them out of their comfortzone just when they are wanting to get a breather in and he wins his races by the time they get to the home bend. This may well be the best race he’s ever contested but I think hes better than ever this season and I look forward to him showing it here! Ahoy Senor 14/1 is nowhere near good enough to win a race like this. His jumping isn’t up to scratch and his mental maturity is nowhere near where it needs to be. Similar to Flooring Porter in the Stayers he’s a talented horse but he needs a soft lead where he can control things at a slow pace and nobody puts pressure on his jumping because once they do his frailties get exposed and he will beat himself after that just totally self destruct. He’s definitely one to avoid! Protektorat 14/1 was a good winner of the Betfair Chase earlier on this season a race that totally fell apart around him and while he’s a talented horse he really needed to be winning the Cotswolds Chase last time to be even thinking of placing in this and on the back of that run I don’t buy that Skeltons hadn’t him as fit as they thought that’s only an excuse he was fairly close to spot on that day and he was shown up and he’s going to get caught out here again. Hewick 20/1 is a lovely horse and a great story for a great character of the game but he’s not a Grade 1 horse he’s a very decent handicapper and he will find this company way too hot to handle but fair play to them for having a go. They have been on a great journey but they are tilting at windmills here and this is one step too far. Minella Indo 20/1 is a crazy price to me I can’t for the life of me figure out why he’s such a big price. He’s a former Gold Cup winner and only found A Plus Tard too good this time last year when he finished second in this race. He is a better horse around Cheltenham than he is anywhere else there is just something about the place whether it’s the track or how the races are run or the noise and the atmosphere I just don’t know but something brings him to life around here and he will be a force to be reckoned with again. I actually thought last season if Robbie Power had known the horse better he wouldn’t have sent him for home too soon. He got to the front miles too soon and was idling when A Plus Tard came and went by him so fast he actually had no chance to respond the winner had already flown but with a better ride this year and not being infront so soon I can see him regaining his title I really can! He’s coming into the Festival this year surprisingly on the back of a win around Tramore where he got the better of Stattler and he showed me that day that all the old fire is certainly still in his belly after being headed at the back of the last after a slow jump he battled on tenaciously to get back up and deny his better fancied young rival and I fancy him to prove that no fluke here. Capodanno 33/1 wouldn’t be without a squeak if he could get back to his Novice form having had an interrupted prep this season. He’s a talented young horse with very few miles on the clock and will love the ground if it turns up good which is looking highly likely at the moment. If Willie can get his back to 100% I wouldnt be at all surprised to see him run a big race at a very big price!

Selections: Minella Indo 20/1 (EW), Conflated 12/1 (EW)

Danger: Capodanno 33/1 (EW)

The Foxhunters is up next and this race is a done deal in my eyes. Vaucelet 9/4 just wins this I’m certain of that. I have always been a big fan of this horse and was hoping he would turn up last year but we have to trust David Christie who’s done an excellent job with him to date that it would have been too soon and 2023 is his year! He’s a big scopey individual who jumps and stays really well. He also has a high cruising speed so he won’t be caught out by the frenetic pace this race is often ran at! He will be perfectly capable of holding his own. He was a somewhat fortunate winner at Down Royal at Christmas but he generally needs an early season run to get him spot on and the nicer the ground at the Festival will also be a big plus. I thought Barry O’Neill gave him a poor ride at Punchestown when he went down narrowly to Billaway. In my opinion he engaged Billaway far too early that day. Billaway needs a real test of stamina and Barry O’Neill took him on when they turned down the side in Punchestown and blunted Vaucelets turn of foot in the process. In spite of that though he was still going to go and win his race going to the last but for a mistake where he lost all momentum before rallying and just failing to get back up. A more patient ride and take it up at the last would be the ideal scenario for me and he will scoot clear up the hill! He’s the best Hunter Chaser in Ireland that’s for sure! It is highly possible that David Christie not only has the best hunter chaser around but maybe even the best three! Ferns Lock and Winged Leader are both 5/1 next in the market and both also hail from the David Christie yard! Ferns Lock is a young inexperienced horse who won’t go to the festival this year he’s much more likely to stay at home and head to Fairyhouse at Easter before heading to Stratford later in the year. As for Winged Leader he really should have won this race last season but for Barry O’Neill and Jamie Codd getting a rush of blood to their heads and going for home from the top of the hill and pulling well clear of the field. Winged Leader had Jamie Codd and Mighty Stowaway put to the sword on the run to the last and the race looked it safe keeping before tying up on the run in and getting nabbed in the last stride! Winged Leader looks to be waiting for the Foxhunters at Aintree this season which looks a shrewd move. It would be great to see a small yard scoop two nice pots with two different horses it really would. Famous Clermont 6/1 is without doubt the best of the Brits but connections seemed to have nailed their colours to the mast with him also flagging up Aintree as the ultimate aim for this season. He’s a really talented horse who is learning on the job and if he were to turn up here I do believe he would give Vaucelet plenty to think about! Thank god he’s not though! Or at least it doesn’t look like he is! As for Billaway 8/1 he’s is getting a bit long in the tooth now and having been a fortunate winner at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season I think he’s had his day in the sun. His jumping can be sketchy and he’s prone to getting taken off his feet especially around here with the pace that they go in this. At this hour of his life I think the years have caught up with him and although the race looks to lack depth I think he will really struggle this year. He got beaten easily by Ferns Lock at Thurles before just about scrambling home at Naas last time. While he will have his supporters I’m happy to give him a pass this year having been firmly in his corner in the past. If there is one to run well at a price given how well he went in the race last year maybe Mighty Stowaway 33/1 could get amongst the places at a big price but there wouldn’t be a great deal of conviction in that. Of the Brits who will turn up Secret Investor 10/1 was a decent high level handicapper or Grade 2 or 3 horse in the last couple of years and he’s as solid runner here for the Nicholls team. He jumps and stays well and should get himself in the mix for a place but I still believe the exciting young progressive Vaucelet is the one they all have to beat!

Selection: Vaucelet 9/4

Danger: Secret Investor 10/1 (EW)

The Mares Chase is the penultimate race on Day 4 and this year’s renewal is dominated by two Novices. Allegorie De Vassy 13/8 heads the market for Willie Mullins who has won both renewals of the race so far which is in its infancy. She was a good winner on Chase debut at Limerick over Christmas in a Grade 2 but in all honesty in was a non event! The level of ability of those in behind was poor and her main market rival didn’t go a yard in the ground. There’s no denying she has talent but whether she has enough or whether her jumping will hold up when it comes under pressure I’d have my doubts. We’ve only ever seen her race right handed and last time at Thurles, again in Grade 2 Mares company she jumped violently right at the first and that was something that cropped up more than once on the way round and she completely let fly at a few and even got into the bottom of more. It was one of the most erratic and varied rounds of jumping I’ve ever seen from a horse and I’d have serious doubts about her on the back of it. You can get away with that sort if thing at a low level during the season but you won’t get away with it in a championship race at the Festival! I wouldn’t very surprised if that jumping was as a result of a physical issue and I’d be happy to oppose her. Impervious 2/1 has been nothing short of exceptional since she has gone chasing! From winning a Beginners at Wexford she went and won a Graded Novice at Cork when putting Dinoblue to the sword over an inadequate two miles but it was her jumping got her home infront that day. She’s not the biggest or hasn’t the most scope in the world but she makes a great shape over her fences and she’s not afraid to go long when asked! She has since gone in at the deep end against the geldings at Punchestown in a race won by the likes of Bob Olinger last season and she gave weight to the boys that day and was a good winner in the end under hands and heels. It was Journey With Me she beat that day and she cruised into contention going to the last and was only shaken up at the back of the last and ridden out hands and heels to come home half a length to the good. I think she will give Allegorie De Vassy plenty to think about and it will take a very good mare to beat her. If you want an eachway play in the race it’s probably Jeremy’s Flame 6/1 who has improved this season from a level that didn’t even see her turn up for this last season. You can nearly set your watch by her to run her race. She jumps and travels and will be ridden cold to come pick up the pieces if either of the big two underperform. She has loads of experience having been a novice last season and shes ran in good handicaps as well as graded races. She also ties into the British form having won a Listed Mares Chase at Huntingdon last time neating alot of what the Brits have to offer while hardly coming off the bridle. With that being the case she’s very hard to knock out of the frame and she will certainly be still travelling in contention as they turn in. Galia Des Liteaux 12/1 is highly unlikely to turn up here over this sort of trip with her liking for very deep ground Dan Skelton has said she would want a deluge to run here so let’s not waste any more time on her. Magic Daze 12/1 will ensure plenty pace in this race and will make it a proper jumping test. She’s a free going front running mare who is best at two miles and no doubt she will set a good gallop and there will be no soft lead for Allegorie De Vassy that’s for sure. While she’s unlikely to see out the trip even if she did I think Impervious is just a different class I’m here and I don’t think Magic Daze could ever beat her over this trip. Zambella 16/1 has ran really well in this race in the last couple of seasons travelling really well when falling three from home two years ago before being beaten just four and half lenghts in fourth in this race last year. She clearly has an affinity for this track saving her best efforts for this race around here but I’d just be worried she was so beaten so easily by Jeremy’s Flame last time I’d genuinely find it hard to see her reverse the form of that run. For that reason u think she will be unplaced again this year. Dolcita 20/1 is another like Jeremy’s Flame who will be ridden to come home and pick up some pieces and those tactics worked out well for her in Clonmel on deep ground earlier in the season but again she wouldn’t have the class to win a race like this in a fit so fighting it out for third will be all she will be doing baring something happens to those at the head of the market. Elimay 25/1 is our reigning and defending champion and we haven’t seen much of her this season but if anyone is capable of getting her right for the big day it’s Willie Mullins. If she got back to her best she would be well capable of giving the two at the head of the market a race at for that reason at a wild price she might be worth chancing something small on. Pink Legend 33/1 ran a big race in this last season but hasn’t been able to replicate that level of form at any point before or since that run making it very hard to take it at face value. Even at 33s she wouldn’t interest me here. It’s such a shame Scarlet And Dove hasn’t made it to the festival this year as she would have added alot of class and another angle to the race to make it a really interesting confidence and even more of a clash of the generations. Alas it wasn’t meant to be.

Selection: Impervious 2/1

Danger: Elimay 25/1 (EW)

The curtain comes down on the Festival with the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys and Langer Dan 15/2 finds himself towards the head of the betting of this race for the third year in a row in one of the most blatant bits of handicapping you will see and what’s more the handicapper is quiet happy to play stupid for the sake of trying to get a few British winners. Ypu wouldnt find an Irish handicapper looked on with such favour in the last decade from any yard at any level nevermind something so obvious. He was second in this race to Galopin Des Champs a couple of seasons ago before being brought down early in the race last season. He went to Aintree after the festival last season and was made pull out off the stops to win. Back down to a mark of 141 he will be competitive but he still has only won handicaps off of marks of 130 and 137 in recent seasons so at the very least this doesn’t look a complete gimme and I’m happy to take him on regardless. There surely has to be something younger and less exposed who can get the better of him. Spanish Harlem 6/1 heads the market for Willie Mullins who often comes up with a future Grade 1 performer in this race but as far as this being a future Grade 1 winner I think it’s unlikely. He ran a reasonable race behind Three Card Brag a couple of starts ago but he was disappointing last time at Thurles when turned out quicker than normal by Willie to get in the fourth run to qualify for this. I’d like to think that run wasn’t a true reflection of his ability and that run also would say to me that the handicapper can’t be too harsh on him so he may get a favourable mark. Three Card Brag 8/1 is also entered in this but it will be probably marginal whether he will get in or not at the top end of the handicap. He definitely is a horse with plenty of ability and a possible Grade 1 winner of the future over fences. In this sort of company ground wouldn’t be so much of a concern for me at if he took up this engagement rather than running in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett he would have to be a player for the Gordon Elliott yard who always target this race with a young progressive horse. If by some miracle he goes here and the ground turned up soft he would be one of the handicap bets of the meeting. Cool Survivor 8/1 is another young progressive horse from the Gordon Elliott yard who has some decent form in the book in graded races at home in Ireland. He was a Listed winner in Cork before running a good race to be a soundly beaten second behind Hiddenvalley Lake in a Grade 3 next time. He had a bit of a break then before going to the Dublin Racing Festival where he stayed on well late into fourth behind Good Land. That run should have put him spot on for this and I expect he should be a on a nice mark. He’s definitely a player. American Mike 8/1 was second in the Champion Bumper last season and is well found in the market but his antepost backers will be disappointed he hasn’t the required number of runs after missing an engagement the weekend at Punchestown so will have to go down the Grade 1 route if he wants to run at the Festival. Might I 10/1 was a big fancy of mine for this race off a mark of 135 but he comes here off 145 this time around which would leave him vulnerable to a something a bit better handicapped. The course and distance will suit and he is probably a bit better than 145 horse but he probably hasn’t as much in hand as he might need for an ultra competitive race like this. That said from a top yard he would have an eachway chance. McTigue 12/1 would be very interesting if he turned up here for Emmet Mullins as he’s only a Juvenile but he’s got a rating of 142 at the moment with an impending engagement on the Morebattle at Kelso on Saturday and presuming he wins or runs well there he could just push his mark over the top end of the handicap for this. Imagine 12/1 is another unexposed young horse for Gordon Elliott who has done his racing solely over two miles so far this season but I think a step up in trip could really suit him. He’s a prominent racer who for a big horse has a turn of foot. If he stays which im sure he will that turn of foot could be a huge asset at the business end of this and his prominent racing style definitely would be a help in a big field Festival race full of inexperienced jockeys. He has form tying in with lots of good novice like Hunters Yarn, American Mile, Three Card Brag and even the highly regarded Inothewayurthinkin who was a big fancy for many for tihi race but didnt recieve an entry. I dont think he will be far away. Hauturiere 14/1 I would suspect will go to the Mares Novice as opposed to turning up here. She’s a fine mare and will win plenty races for connections but I wouldn’t give her a prayer I’m a race like this. Historique Reconce 14/1 would have a definite chance if she turned up here off a low weight on the back of a really good run at Leopardstown but it looks like she will be far too low in the handicap in my opinion unless the British handicapper decides to crucify her but even if he does she may still not get in. Irish Hill 16/1 has been running up a bit of a sequence recently for the Paul Nicholls team but that’s been lesser races than this and I think he’s reached the ceiling of his ability. I’d be absolutely staggered if he could progress again and win a race like this! Sa Fureur 20/1 won what is normally a good trial for this race last time in a tight finish at Thurles. Now that renewal of the race was the weakest I’ve seen in a while but maybe time will prove it wasn’t as bad as it looked. Though his Thurles victory was only by the narrowest of margins he was value for a good bit more. Jordan Gainford was always happy he jumped and travelled well before cruising into the lead between the last two hurdles and though the margin was small he the jockey never went for his stick always feeling like his mount was doing enough. You might say they was trying to be clever and mind his mark but I don’t think thatbis the case. I think the horse actually is just lazy and doesn’t do a while pile infront. He had 2 decent runs in bumpers but never anything special before he went hurdling and he’s progressed rapidly since going over obstacles. He was second first time out over hurdles at Limerick at Christmas when ridden quietly and totally unfancied in the market. Ridden closer to the pace at the second time of asking he made no mistake running out a convincing winner. He went from there to a rated Novice Hurdle at Punchestown in a good field and made no mistake battling on gamely to beat a decent yardstick in La Malmason and they pulled well clear of the third. Hes been kept busy but needs must and I’d suggest the Thurles run was a means to an end to get him qualified for this race. He’s now three from four over hurdles and is still progressing. I wouldn’t be certain where his ceiling is and at the prices he definitely looks overpriced to me!

Selections: Imagine 12/1 (EW), SaFureur 20/1 (EW)

Danger: Cool Survivor 8/1 (EW)

Well we have come to the end of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival Blog. I hope you enjoyed a look through my green tinted glasses at this years runners. Thanks to everyone who took the time to read it. If you’ve stuck it out this far then please comment your feedback and if you liked it then please like and retweet to help this thing grow and increase the audience!

It’s Saturday February 12th as I sit to pen the intro to this, my 2022 blog. For almost 2 years our everyday lives were so very different to the normal but since Christmas restrictions have lifted and normality is returning slowly but surely. Before we get into the nitty-gritty a few moments of reflection are in order.

“In a mirror is where we find a reflection of our appearances but in a heart is where we find a reflection of our soul.”

In a game full of passion, I know all of us fans were at a loose end in 2020/2021 and I’m sure within all our hearts reflects the soul of the true National Hunt fans we are and we all felt the loss of not being able to get close to the action.

Last March we had a weird but wonderful festival. No crowds on course was something beyond the realms of my imagination and the utter dominance of the Irish was another shock to most, especially to such a degree. The wonderful Rachel Blackmore went where no woman and few humans have gone before with utter dominance of the game making everything look oh so easy alongside Henry De Bromhead who ruled the roost with a clean sweep of the old school championship races. They didn’t stop with Cheltenham they also went on to even more history in Aintree.

2022 shall bring a return of that almost religious pilgrimage to the hallowed Cheltenham turf for many a Brit as well as all us Irish men and women. Let there be no doubt, this is a religion to some as it is to me though as of yet I’ve never been but it is very much my religion of choice from afar. Very few sporting events can muster up so much passion and emotion from its fans. A passion for the talents of man and women alike be it in the saddle or the dark arts of the trainers who bring their charges to their absolute peak for these 4 days. But they are secondary to the love and appreciation of all fans and the connections made with our equine stars the beautiful creatures who we all get attached to and make our own personal connections with as we follow them year in year out for many long seasons.

We have some real stars at the moment the Honeysuckles of this world who have conquered all comers breaking all records and showing no signs of stopping. To young pretenders of which there are many from Constitution Hill to Sir Gerhard and Bravemansgame to Gallopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger depending on the side of the Irish Sea your on we all have our own opinions on who holds the aces this year with the novices. This all bodes well for a festival to remember.

The silence of last year’s festival was eery no famous roar echoing around the Gloucestershire countryside before the Supreme to the empty stands on the long walks back to an empty winners enclosure. Part of me can’t help but wonder what kind of hysteria would we have witnessed as everyone went Rachel Blackmore crazy. It would have been something else.

I have no doubt this years Festival will be bigger and better than ever. The crowds will return in their droves full of energy and excitement that’s been building up since 2020. That energy and excitement will bring an electricity to the air that both man and beast will be able to feel and it makes for an atmosphere that I believe no other sport in the world can replicate. Such anticipation and build up is part of no other sport I can think of not to mention there will be many restless nights and some sleepless ones too between now and the last race is run on Gold Cup Day. This will be a festival full of relief and emotion and I’m sure full of performances and an atmosphere to match. We all remember our first festival experiences the first horse or race that captured our imagination but this year we should take the opportunity to have our time over and make a new memory to etch in our minds and souls forever. This will be a festival where we will ask in the future “do you remember this” or “where were you when..” just remember to take time to soak it up, take it all in, it shall be a festival we will never forget!

“Why else are we here, if not to live with unreasonable passion for things.”

The first race as always is the Supreme Novices Hurdle and what a race we have in store at least on paper. Both the Brits and us Irish have some really high hopes with the exciting young pretenders in here but as you might expect I think the Irish hold all the aces! Constitution Hill 9/4 is the market leader and it certainly isn’t on form that he’s found himself there. He’s won stylishly at Sandown twice now on bad ground but we all know Sandown throws up these freakish performances year in year out but at the end of the day they don’t amount to much! He leads the British challenge for Nicky Henderson while stable mate Jonbon 9/2 is another with a big reputation but there are plenty reasons to oppose him. He won two cake walks where there was no pace on and he just outsprinted lesser rivals most of whom want further anyway. He’s a precocious type who’s has gotten quite lit up on a few occasions already in his short career and I’d worry about the festival atmosphere getting to him. I also was far from impressed with his most recent run at Haydock where he was quite workmanlike but didn’t look an inch a Supreme winner to me. The obvious angle for me in the Supreme as things stand lies with Willie Mullins. Now if it were up to me I’d be sending Dysart Dynamo 3/1 here having won the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown last time which Mullins has often used as a prep for his main Supreme hope in the past. He made all that day setting a ferocious gallop and running his rivals into the ground. He also won a bumper at Punchestown at the end of last season that Willie often runs a real smart individual in so I suspect he’s always been rated at home. He’s four from four in his career so far and I can definitely see him making it five come March. Sir Gerhard 7/2 is another for Willie Mullins who boasts some real strong credentials for the Festival opener. Winner of the Champion Bumper last season he has the course form and even though his jumping wasn’t so slick at the Dublin Racing Festival he still did a quicker overall time than Honeysuckle while carrying more weight than she did so that says it all when it comes to his engine. That said given the option with the Mullins pair and knowing how much Willie likes to split his horses while both will have major chances wherever they turn up Sir Gerhard would seem the more straight forward of the pair to step up in trip for the Ballymore and let Dysart Dynamo go here but that remains to be see. Whichever one turns up here I expect them to go off favourite on the day! Others worth a mention are firstly Kilcruit 9/1 who finished runner up to Sir Gerhard in the Champion Bumper last season. He made a slow start to his hurdles career getting overturned at short odds in Cork first time out before being stepped up in trip at Leopardstown over Christmas but suffered a similar faith as his first attempt. Next time Willie Mullins decided to drop him back to two miles again and fit him with a tongue tie which seemed to transform him. Now he didn’t beat any stars that day but the style he did it in would suggest he’s plenty more to offer us yet. Mighty Potter 12/1 won a Grade 1 over Christmas at Leopardstown having been a touch unlucky in Fairyhouse in the Royal Bond. With a bit of luck he may already have been a 2 time Grade 1 winner and in that regard maybe he’s a bit underestimated I’m the market you might think but for me he’s a work in progress he’s still plenty green enough and is likely to find this race too hot. If he was to sneak a place it would be a good result. Three Stripe Life 25/1 chased home Sir Gerhard last time and with that in mind I think he’s much more likely to turn up in the Ballymore rather than here but wherever he goes he will have an eachway chance. Willie Mullins probably also stables the most interesting outsiders in the shape of State Man 16/1 and El Fabiolo 16/1 who were both impressive maiden hurdle winners in the last couple of months and are held in very high regard at home. If turning up here it wouldn’t surprise if either of those ran well in what looks a Supreme full of quality like we haven’t seen in a long time!

Selection: Dysart Dynamo 3/1 or Sir Gerhard 7/2 depending who turns up!

Dangers: Kilcruit 9/1(EW) State Man 16/1(EW)

Onto the Arkle next which is wide open. Probably the most competitive Arkle we’ve had in a long time. Its a shame Ferny Hollow is out for the season due to injury but that loss will mean a huge gain for someone else. Edwardstone 9/4 has found himself at the head of the market since his win in the Kingmaker over the weekend. Its obvious why he is market leader now with many horses doing their chances more harm than good in recent weeks with sub par performances. Edwardstone was a highly rated handicap hurdler and seems at least equally good over fences. He’s very solid and you can set your watch by him he’s sure to be involved in the finish but in a wide open race would I like to be taking the 9/4 I don’t think so! Blue Lord 10/3 scrambled home at the Dublin Racing Festival benefitting from a last fence mistake from Riviere D’etel. I haven’t been blown away by him as a hurdler or a chaser and he certainly won’t be carrying my money on the day. Riviere D’etel 4/1 has improved massively for the switch to fences this season and while she was getting the benefit of a weight for age allowance as well as the mares allowance up to now I think she can be involved. She holds possibly the best piece of form in the race making Ferny Hollow pull out all the stops at Leopardstown over Christmas before that last fence mistake cost her next time against Blue Lord. She will race handy which often is the place to be at Cheltenham over fences and with a bit of luck this could be her Grade 1. Saint Sam 8/1 will be on plenty lists as an eachway alternative he lacks a bit of scope maybe but he is plenty tough enough and if he can settle better than he did at the Dublin Racing Festival he wouldn’t be without a chance. He had been keen early last time before making a bad mistake two out which put him on the back foot. You’d be forgiven to think he was going to tail off after that but he stuck to his task well and rallied not to be beaten too far at the line. That said maybe he will step up in trip and head to the Turners over two and a half. Ciel De Neige 16/1 (tipped up at 33/1 NRNB on twitter) makes plenty of appeal to me at the prices. He has a very similar profile to the favourite having been a decent handicap hurdler if not as smart as Edwardstone over the smaller obstacles. He has Festival experience having placed in the Fred Winter a few season back and went off a short price for the County in the following season. He seems to have improved plenty for fences and is thriving having found the winning thread. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he rocked up and ran really well! Coeur Sublime 16/1 is a bit of an enigma but a talented one on his day. He goes well fresh and Henry De Bromhead has kept his powder try since winning his beginners in Gowran Park at short odds. He’s another with plenty of talent who if he puts it all together will make his presence felt in an open race.

Selections: Riviere D’etel 4/1 (EW) Ciel De Neige 16/1 (EW)

Danger: Coeur Sublime 16/1 (EW)

Next up is the first handicap of the meeting the Ultima Handicap Chase and I’ve really liked one in here for a long time or at least i was really keen on him until he ran at Ascot in the Reynoldstown. That horse is Does He Know 7/1 for Kim Bailey. Now if your backing this one early then make sure it’s NRNB because a few weeks ago Kim was very lukewarm about whether or not they would go to the festival. Before the Reynoldstown he had a very similar profile to Kim’s chosen runner last season Happygolucky and he had an identical mark of 147. His Reynoldstown romp has earner him a 5lb rise from the handicapper which looks incredibly lenient. I am in no doubt he’s a much better horse than Happygolucky is. He had a few early season runs winning at Chepstow and Cheltenham before finishing second again around Cheltenham in November behind Threeunderthrufive who he had previously beaten. That form has worked out really well and this horse loves Cheltenham so the track won’t be an issue and the trip is ideal. If he turns up on the day I have no doubt he will go off favourite. I would have rathered he went to Cheltenham fresh but maybe Kim felt the had left Happygolucky a bit short last year who knows. He had a hard race in that Reynoldstown despite the ease with which he won and I’d just worry now that he may feel the effects of that. I don’t think you want a real slog in deep ground like that just over three weeks out from the festival. He would have been my NAP of the entire meeting if he went there fresh but now i have that doubt he might have left his race at Ascot! If he goes there I’ll still have to back him ask I’d be sick if he did go and win but it won’t be with the same confidence as i was expecting. From limited evidence obviously but from what little evidence we do have this season the British handicapper may well have shown some extra leniency to British handicap chasers this season to try balance the books a little bit when it comes to festival winner so its worth keeping that in mind. The Irish also have a horrible record in the race but then again they haven’t exactly thrown many darts at the race over the years it seems like one they are happy to ignore. I better mention a few more of note just incase Does He Know doesn’t turn up. Corach Rambler 12/1 wouldn’t be without a chance having won two of his five chase starts over fences one at Aintree and one around Cheltenham. He finished a respectable fourth in the Classic Chase at Warwick just failing to get himself into it from off the pace. He likely has more left in his mark and has a definite eachway chance. He also has a very similar profile to The Conditional who won this race a couple of year ago. They both ran in the Classic Chase off identical marks of 142 to finish fourth only to be dropped 2lb and 3lb respectively. Corach ramber gets in off 140 now and i think thats a very good mark for him. He also ran in the Reynoldstown at Ascot but he unseated his rider far enough out that i dont thunk he had an overly hard race. If he turns up here hes definitely another one with a great eachway chance. Éclair Surf 20/1 won that aforementioned Classic chase at Warwick with a bold front running performance last time and in the past that has actually been a race I’ve had success with following horses who have run there and turned up at the Festival. He’s up 10lbs for that win but the manner of victory would say to me there’s more in the locker yet. He certainly wouldn’t be without a chance. Oscar Elite 20/1 needs a mention for the Tizzards as he could be a real interesting one at a price. On his debut over fences fell three out at Cheltenham in behind Threeunderthrufive and Does He Know when plenty of people felt he was looking like the winner. He has had four runs over fences without winning but he’s ran in some really competitive races and he has some top novice hurdle form in the book at the Festival having finished second in last seasons Albert Bartlett. Hes on an attractive mark of 134 and with the yard in better from now than it has been for quite a while it wouldnt surprise me to see him run a very big race. As for the Irish School Boy Hours 20/1 is another of the Irish contingent who has always been held in high regard and runs in the green and gold of JP McManus. He won the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas off a mark of 133 he got 9lbs for that and with the standard British tax he should end up with a mark of about 148. He wouldn’t be without a chance. One last runner to mention is Ben Dundee 20/1 who was 2nd to School Boy Hours in the Paddy Power off a mark of 142 he’s gone up to an Irish mark of 146 now and not being from a flashy stable he might get off a bit lighter than others and get in here off 148 or 149. He’s got previous festival form having run well in a Festival Plate a couple of seasons ago and can go well again.

Selections: Does He Know 7/1 (EW) Corach Rambler 12/1 (EW)

Dangers: Oscar Elite 20/1 (EW) Ben Dundee 20/1 (EW)

The feature race of the day is the Champion Hurdle and while it might not be the most competitive race of the day Honeysuckle 4/7 who is well on her way to becoming one of the best mares of all time. She is 14/14 so far in her career on the track with another win to her name in point to points. To me she seems better than ever this season. She’s not one for us ordinary punters to be backing as a single but she is worth throwing in an accumulator. She will be incredibly hard to beat and I hope she wins with a packed house and gets the reception she deserves after winning her first Champion Hurdle last season in silence. Appreciate It 4/1 was last years Supreme Novice winner and super impressive in doing so but he’s been off since and would have undoubtedly gone over fences only for those problems. He’s always looked like a big staying chaser to me. He’s 8 now and he certainly isn’t getting any quicker. In what’s a weak race outside of Honeysuckle of course he would be high on the list to contest a place but I think Honeysuckle will eat him alive! At an eachway price I’d be very keen on Quilixios 66/1 who won the Triumph last year and though things haven’t fallen his way so far this season I think he’s a pacey individual would can give Honeysuckle the most to think about. He was disappointing last time in Gowran but that can’t be his true running I know it’s a bit of a leap of faith but he shouldn’t be a 66/1 shot and at that price he’s well worth an eachway bet. He’s more than capable of getting into the frame. Alternatively he might end up a nice price in the without market so he might be worth a punt in that. Teahupoo 8/1 is six from seven over hurdles and has had a fantastic season so far winning all three starts. His most impressive performance was on the deepest ground hes encountered so far at Gowran last time and while connections would like us to believe he hated it that day I’m not falling for that. All his best for is on ground with a good dig in it and he suddenly hasnt become a twenty plus length better horse than Quilixios and with one 8/1 and the other 66/1 judged on one run i know who ill be backing and uts not Teahupoo. As for the British contenders don’t bother with them Epatante 9/1 isn’t a patch on her old self and any of those handicappers just won’t be good enough to see where Honeysuckle went.

Selection: Honeysuckle 1/2

Danger: Quilixios 66/1 (EW)

The Mares Hurdle is up next and it looks to me like it will be a quickfire double for Rachel Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead in the Kenny Alexander silks. Telmesomethinggirl 10/3 won the mare novice last year at the Festival in impressive fashion having been held up off the pace early on she came swinging into contention on the home bend and flew up the hill. Last time she wasn’t beaten far at Leopardstown when she left her early season form well behind her. She came home well from off the pace conceding weight to two of her chief rivals here. I think everything since last March has been geared towards this day and she is one of my strongest fancies of the meeting I really think she’s going to be very difficult to beat! Royal Kahala 6/1 won narrowly at Leopardstown over Christmas against Telmesomethinggirl and Heaven Help Us but Peter Fahey says she needs really deep ground to be seen at her best and won’t be going to the Festival unless it’s soft and she will meet Telmesomethinggirl on 5lbs worse terms. Stormy Ireland 6/1 who won the Rekeel ar the track over the winter will bid to improve Willie Mullins impressive record in the race but I think she could get in a pace duel with Heaven Help Us 10/1 and the pair of them could cut eachothers throats. I just think Telmesomethinggirl will cruise round out the back and come there swinging again this year before powering away from the back of the last! Queens Brook 12/1 ran really well this past week at Punchestown fishing second in what was a tune up for this race. She ran really well in a Champion Bumper a couple of seasons ago but I don’t think she has developed into the mare she promised she would in her early career. Her future probably lies over fences and they are rolling the dice here in what’s not a vintage renewal by any means to see if they can pick up some valuable festival black type at the for her career as a broodmare in the future. Burning Victory 8/1 won her prep at Punchestown last time beating a staying on Queens Brook. She’s often been a mare who lacked fluency in her jumping but she’s a previous winner of the Triumph who stays well. I’d much rather see her run in the Stayers which I will explain later in the blog but she would have place possibilities in her for sure.

Selection: Telmesomethinggirl 10/3

The penultimate race on day one is the old Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle with Boodles taking on the sponsorship of the Gold Cup who knows who’s sponsoring this one. Britzka 12/1 has long been my idea of a major player in this since he won on hurdle debut at Fairyhouse. He followed up running well at Leopardstown in a Grade 2 behind stablemate Fil D’or over Christmas. Last time was too bad to be true he never travelled from the word go and with a circuit to go I knew the jig was up that day. Back on what we expect to be better ground on the day and a good pace to aim at hopefully he will very staying on late and can go close. Gaelic Warrior 4/1 is a hot favourite for Willie Mullins but he has yet to run for the stable having ran 3 times but failed to win in France before he was bought by the Closutton team. I can’t add much information to fill in the blanks on this one but Mullins has a good record in the race at least of horses running well so it’s easy to see him making the frame. Brazil 7/1 wears the famous green and gold silks of JP McManus and broke his maiden over hurdles in no uncertain style at Naas over the weekend absolutely bolting up but in the process he may have blown his handicap mark. He travels and jumps well so not one to discount we will wait to see what the handicapper does with him no point rushing into anything just yet. Champion Green 8/1 is another for JP McManus in the race. He got off the mark over hurdles at the third attempt at Naas with ease in what was a weakish enough maiden last time but he did it in style and the form of his previous runs hasn’t been working out too bad particularly his run at Cork on hurdle debut. Lunar Power 25/1 wouldn’t be without a chance in here I don’t think. Having run well in a couple of Graded Juvenile hurdles in Ireland over the winter behind Fil Dor. Connections know by now they havnt the beating of Fil Dor and there are a few who have emerged that look some way ahead of him too. Connections won this race last season with Jeff Kidder so they will know what is required. He’s definitely a runner of not. The last one on my list is one for the Brits that they picked up from Ireland and that is Olly Murphys Swinging London 25/1 who has form running in behind Lunar Power on hurdle debut at Punchestown before running in the same race as Champion Green at Cork next time finishing third on both occasions. Since moving the Olly Murphy he made a winning debut at Fakenham the other day. He travelled really keenly that day and a big runner field off a fast pace I think could really suit him. Us Irish are unlikely to win everything but we could claim this 1 with the strong Irish form in the book I reckon if he does go in. A forgotten horse in here could be Forever Blessed 25/1 who was a super impressive winner of his first two starts over hurdles at Ffos Las and Sandown. People forget he went off favourite for the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow on Welsh National Day. Things didn’t happen for him that day he was struck in to and nearly forced off the track in the back straight and he never really travelled after that. Sean Bowen wasn’t too hard on him in the straight once his chance was gone he pulled him up so he didn’t have an overly hard race with the future in mind. A mark of 124 looks lenient and you certainly wouldn’t expect that sort of mark after his first two starts. If he can sneak in right at the foot of the weights I see no reason why he can’t run a big race at a big price.

Selections: Britzka 12/1 (EW)     Champion  Green 8/1 (EW)

Dangers: Forever Blessed 25/1 (EW)

The final race on the day is the marathon than is the National Hunt Chase and it has an impressive roll of honour over the years and often turns out to be every bit as strong as any of the Grade 1s at the meeting. Run Wild Fred 3/1 is one of the market leaders as things stand and I’m happy to take on this second season Novice whos been doing most of his winning in handicap company and I just feel there has to be a couple better than him in here. As for his compatriot at the top of the betting Stattler 3/1 he’s never convinced me as a very strong stayer and even though I am a fan of the horse I’m not a fan of him in this particular race. Of the rest I like Farouk D’alene 8/1 if he turned up here  he has strong Graded novice chase form over two and a half and three miles in Ireland. He a very solid jumper and I think this further step up in trip would really suit this classy individual. He ran really well to be second at Christmas in a Grade 1 over two and a half before being beaten just over a lenght by Stattler at Naas over three miles. He won a Grade 2 at Navan earlier this week staying on strongly despite getting in deep to a few fences at crucial points in the race but he wasn’t ro be denied. I strongly believe over this kind of trip we will see him at his best and he shouldnt be ignored. My second dart at this race is Vanillier 6/1 who did us a major favour last year winning the Albert Bartlett. He’s been a slow burner over fences so far but he has winning form around the track and he will relish the test of stamina. His jumping up to now has been a but slow and the nature of this race could well play into his hands. I know he won’t be everyone’s cup of tea and he’s seen the backside of a few of these already this season but a combination of the trip and hopefully a bit of softer ground than he’s been accustomed to all season hopefully he can up his game. The softer the ground is the better his chance will be you can count on that! His chance got a great boost during the week with it being announced Derek O’Connor has been all but confirmed as taking the ride and as everyone knows in these races it pays to have one of the top amateurs on your side. Just to mention a couple for the Brits as give my opinion on the British form. Threeunderthurfive 12/1 might have a place chance I’d he turned up here he couldn’t have done much more than he has to date over fences he will stay all day but will probably be outclassed here. He doesn’t catch me as a a proper Graded chaser he’s got much more the look of a handicapper but he could stay on for a place that said connections may want to keep the partnership with their retained rider so he may just go for the Grade 1 over three miles instead. Pats Fancy 14/1 ran well at the Newbury at the weekend behind Bravemansgame and has been making his way steadily through handicaps but I would be bitterly disappointed if he was good enough to win this race. If he does it won’t say much for the rest of them.

Selections: Vanillier 6/1 (EW) Farouk D’alene 8/1 (EW)

As people who have read my blogs before know I love my quotes so here’s another one…

“When we speak of magic, we speak of those moments that were the purest. When the stars were bright and the laughter was loud, those are the most magical moments in life.”

I’m sure there will be plenty pure magic moments from man and beast alike on day one where the stars of our game will shine bright and the joyous roar of winning punters will indeed be loud. Heres hoping for more as we move on to day two!

Day two kicks off with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and like is the case with the Supreme Sir Gerhard 15/8 and Dysart Dynamo 4/1 are particularly strong in the market. Whichever one turns up here will no doubt go off favourite there’s no doubt in my mind about that and it is my strong belief that will be Sir Gerhard. He’s certainly the most laid back of the two in his running style so the extra trip shouldn’t pose him much of an issue while his jumping was messy last time so a slower pace over two and a half miles might play right into his hands yo give him a bit more time at his obstacles. If he turns up here I believe he will be extremely difficult to beat. As I mentioned in the preview for the Supreme he is a previous Festival winner and the time he posted at Leopardstown last time was very impressive so he has all the form in the book. We just need Willie Mullins to confirm him for this now! As for Dysart Dynamo and his claims in this race while I have no doubt he’s bred to stay this far I don’t think he shows the level of maturity just yet to cope with the extra trip. He was quite keen with Paul Townend last time over two miles at Punchestown in the Moscow Flyer and that coupled with the buzz of the festival might lead to him pulling his chance away in this. Hopefully Willie will see sense and keep him at two miles and let Sir Gerhard come here. Journey With Me 7/1 represents the same connections as Bob Olinger who won this race last year and is of obvious interest. He was an impressive bumper winner last season at Gowran Park and his couple of starts over hurdles have produced two wins as he remains unbeaten to date. He’s a big scopey individual who I’m sure won’t be seen to best effect until he grows into his frame and sees a fence. The form of his run at Naas the weekend wouldn’t be anything to write home about the dawdled early and he ground out the result in the end in spite of the muddling pace which certainly wouldn’t have suited but he was taking on vastly inferior rivals. His one piece of form that stands out is his win in a Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas where he beat Minella Crooner and Kilcruit. A word of caution on that though is Kilcruit finished very tamely that day and was subsequently dropped back to two miles and fitted with a tongue tie. He was also beaten previously to that by Largy Debut at Cork who has disappointed twice since so we dont know what level he ran to. Minella Crooner just stayed on late having never been involved and he’s an out and out 3 miler and while hes found himself very much towards the head of the market for the Albert Bartlett since the Dublin Racing Festival I think Gordon while he knew he had a high level of ability didn’t rate him as highly as that so I remain sceptical. So while the form of that race looks red hot I wouldn’t be getting carried away and would air on the side of caution. He will come up against a real challenge in this race and it may just be too early in his development against more battle hardened rivals. Ginto 6/1 for Gordon Elliott is another would would be high on people’s shortlists for this but he’s one that I just can’t warm to. The form of his win in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas over two and a half miles last time isn’t working out particularly well with the second Grand Jury blowing out and the eventual third Hollow Games finishing third again having been well fancied at the Dublin Racing Festival. On the day I think Ginto got to set his own pace infront and kicked for home in the straight getting first run on his rivals. The fact he couldn’t stretch away from Hollow Games who we now know is a slow boat wouldn’t inspire confidence for me here. I think he will be tapped for toe and he won’t be carrying my money. Minella Cocooner 8/1 impressed me with the style of his win at the Dublin Racing Festival. He got a very good ride off the front by Danny Mullins before having too much speed for them up the straight. He also jumped particularly well at the slight drop back in trip would pose him any issues I wouldn’t have thought. He would be an eachway alternative for sure. To mention one of the British runners and this horse I believe is the best novice hurdler in Britain and that is Stage Star 7/1. He’s a perfect three from three over hurdles so far and has win all his starts by at least six lenghts with plenty more left in the tank. He jumps well and is a very relaxed individual. The form of those he’s beaten might not set the world alight but he’s a high class individual and I could certainly see him taking place honours while he shouldn’t be good enough to beat Sir Gerhard.

Selection: Sir Gerhard 15/8

Dangers: Minella Cocooner 8/1 (EW) Stage Star 7/1 (EW)

Next up is the Brown Advisory Novices Chase formerly known as the RSA. Galopin Des Champs 1/1 is a red hot favourite in here and rightly so. He has been a natural on his 2 starts over fences to date showing loads of scope for the job around Leopardstown at Christmas and again at the Dublin Racing Festival. On his first start he was just electric from start to finish and didn’t put a foot wrong. On his next start in Grade 1 company he wasn’t as fluent as first time but they did go a good gallop where pressure was put on his jumping which will stand to him heading to Cheltenham. Briefly it looked like he might be asked a few questions by Master McShee but when asked to extend on the run to the last he lengthened his stride and put the race to bed with the minimum of fuss. As a hurdler he won the Martin Pipe at last years Festival so we know he handles the travelling and the track which are positives. He also won a Grade 1 over 3 miles at Punchestown which helps ease concerns of whether he will stay or not. As things stand it will take a freakish performance to beat him. On the otherhand Willie Mullins said during the week that hes leaning towards the Turners instead over two and a half for a clash with Bob Olinger so that may well throw the cat amongst the pigeons leaving this wide open. There could be value away from Gallopin Des Champs now with the obvious chance being if he doesnt get declared you could have a bet that will go off a good bit shorter on the day. I suppose this might also mean Bob Olinger 5/1 would have a slight chance of stepping up in trip avoiding Gallopin Des Champs but I dong think Henry De Bromhead will bow to Mullins pressure and shuffle his pack on the back of Mullins thinking out loud. He doesnt seem to type to pull a Nicky Henderson to avoid a Mullins hype horse when he has a star of his own on his hands. Another Irish runner of note is Capodanno 8/1 who was a good winner at Naas on his first start over fences before giving Bob Olinger a race at Punchestown. He’s still a 6 year old with loads of improvement to come. I think he would benefit from a step up from two and a half miles to three and I wouldn’t rule him out of causing an upset if he turned up here. He fell early on last time in behind Gallopin Des Champs and of course you would rather if he didn’t but I don’t recall him making a mistake on his first two starts so if he’s learned from that and a bit more time at his fences over three miles I think he could go very well. Farouk D’alene 16/1 would have eachway claims in here but I don’t think he has the pace to go with Gallopin Des Champs hence why I put him up for the National Hunt Chase. Fury Road 14/1 looks extremely likely to turn up here but he’s a notorious rogue who keeps plenty for himself and I don’t think he’s up to Battling if the needs must so he wouldn’t be on my mind for this. Bravemansgame 2/1 hasn’t done much wrong so far over fences he’s four from four beating the best Britain has to offer but then again that’s not much. They have long toyed with the possibility of going to Aintree instead of Cheltenham which would tell you even the yard don’t believe he’s real top notch or suited by Cheltenham despite the hype. He’s a natural jumper true bit he’s done his racing in small fields in which most of the time he’s been setting his own fractions and his jumping hasn’t really been tested. Until such time as he wins a good old fashioned battle rather than a precession I’ll be steering well clear. Ahoy Senor 11/2 is another one of these over rated British aeroplanes who is a Gold Cup winner in waiting as long as he’s taking on inferior opposition given an easy lead and first run he should be a certainty. He won a precession at Newbury before being talked about as a Gold Cup horse for this season by so called experts and his trainer no less. He went to Kempton then to take on Bravemansgame where his jumping was messy and he was easily beaten again that was another small field. Last time the fantastical notions of the press and the yard were bandied about yet again as he won a four runner race beating three handicappers the best of whom totally underperformed l. He was also gifted another easy lead where he kept going right at his fences and eased clear granted first run. This lad is an overrated handicapper simple as that and will be consistently underpriced everywhere he goes. I’d be advising steer well clear. If Gallopin Des Champs does switch to the Turners I wonder would Willie Mullins run Gaillard Du Mesnil 16/1 here. He’s a horse I always thought lacked the pace for two and a half miles. He ran really well in the Ballymore last season finishing second to Bob Olinger on that occasion having been outpaced coming down the hill. He’s been a slow burner over fences having three starts and failing to win but he was set a couple of tough tasks so far taking on the likes of Capodanno, Bob Olinger and Gallopin Des Champs. He has just looked a slow plodder to me over fences and I’d like to see him run here. He showed last time at Leopardstown that he was learning all the time and he stayed on really well for third when others had cried enough over two and a half miles. If he turned up I’d be happy to have something on him at a double figure price.

Selection: Gallopin Des Champs 1/1

Danger: Capodanno 8/1 (EW) Gaillard Du Mesnil 16/1

The Coral Cup is the third race on day two and its a wide open race this year with no standout plots. Good Risk At All 8/1 finds himself as favourite having won at Ascot in impressive fashion on deep ground on his most recent start. That was his first start over two and a half miles which i always felt would suit him. Now the handicapper had given him a really lenient opening mark. He’s up to 137 now which means he definitely gets in if connections want to go this way with him and he has lots of potential but id worry whether hes ready for a big field Cheltenham handicap at this point in his career. I think it could all be too much for him and im willing to oppose him here. Unexpected Party 10/1 is well found the market for the Skeltons. He was an impressive winner of a handicap around Ascot last time off a mark of 130 and has gone up 12lbs to 142 and while his victory last time would suggest that is within his compass but in a super competitive Cheltenham handicap I’m not so sure. He’s short of experience and Harry Skelton is prone to getting a rush of blood and going for home too soon which got this one beat at Wetherby by the Brimming Water off 124 but at least that form has been franked since. Gowell Road 16/1 has been put up by a few decent judges for this and I can see why having beaten Unexpected Party over course a distance a couple of starts back off 134 he got 7lbs for that and has ran respectably back over two miles again since he might get another 2lbs for that but he still has his chance. Winter Fog 10/1 for Emmet Mullins would have a really strong chance if turning up here. He’s unexposed having run just fives times under rules and just once for Mullins. That run was in a Pertemps qualifier over Christmas at Leopardstown where he finished second having travelled really strongly into the race whole he may have needed the run I’d suspect that he’d appreciate the drop back in trip for this kind of test. Now he still might go for the Pertemps but i hope he runs here. He’s got an Irish rating of 131 so I’d be pretty confident with standard British tax he will get into the race off a really good racing weight. With a good pace to aim at I can see him coming travelling at the last he must go close. Grand Roi 16/1 went off a hotly fancied favourite in this race last year and I believe there’s plenty reason to take a chance on him again in here. Heaven Help Us got loose on the lead last year and nothing else ever got into the race. Taking the winner out of it he was only beaten sic and a half lenghts and with a more truly run race and getting Davy Russell back in the saddle I expect he can run a big race. In the same colours Party Central 14/1 may be headed for the Mares Novice but I would like to see her take her chance in here she’s got an Irish mark of 135 which would take her into the low 140s in Britain.   If she turned up she would be high on my list but it looks unlikely. Good Time Jonny 12/1 would be well fancied by many if he turned up here but I read recently that Tony Martin didn’t think he handled Cheltenham when he ran there in the autumn. Since those comments the owners have come out and said they look forward to going to Cheltenham with one with a live chance at the festival so maybe they will have their way. He didn’t finish too far behind Gowell Road and Unexpected Party over course and distance in the autumn and he has really hit a good vein of form on his last couple of starts winning at Leopardstown over Christmas and again at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s a horse on the improve and he will pick up another good handicap before the season is over. He’s worth keeping an eye on. Thedevilscoachman 12/1 is a horse I always liked and he returned to winning ways back over hurdles in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan the other day under a well judged ride by Mark Walsh. I’m not sure if he’s an intended runner here or not but I suspect if he does the handicapper will have a say and give him a big weight to burden. I personally would be surprised if he ran but should be turn up on the day he needs to be respected.

Selections: Winter Fog 10/1 (EW)             Grand Roi 16/1 (EW)

Danger: Good Time Jonny 12/1 (EW)

The Champion Chase is the feature on day two and it promises to be an absolute cracker! Shishkin 4/6 heads the market here and rightly so. He’s unbeaten over fences so far in his career but he’s by no means unbeatable. He looked in trouble on numerous occasions in his career so far but always seems to find something somewhere to pull it out of the fire. As soon as you think he’s in trouble he seems to come alive. Last time at Ascot Energumene looked like he had him beaten off when they quickened down to the second last but Shishkin wore him down up the run in to win going away. He has two festival wins to his name in the Supreme and the Arkle in the past two seasons so we know he is more than capable of coping with what the festival can throw at him. It is my firm belief that Energumene 3/1 can turn the tables on Shishkin from their run at Ascot. Despite what people might think Cheltenham is a speed favouring track where it pays to race handily especially over fences so that will suit Energumene. The Champion Chase is also over a furlong shorter than the race at Ascot which again will favour Energumene. People say that Energumene jumps a bit right but I don’t believe that to be the case. Shishkin is prone to a mistake or two and while he can get away with that in small field races like at Ascot last time in larger fields like he will get in the Champion Chase a mistake like that will cost him valuable field position and that could make all the difference. I also believe Cheltenham doesn’t play to Shishkins strengths as much as the likes of Kempton and Ascot which have long home straights to give Shishkin time to get organised. We all know Willie Mullins is a genius especially when it comes to priming one for Cheltenham. Chacun Pour Soi 6/1 came to the Champion Chase last season with a lofty reputation and went off a short price to land the most prestigious prize in the two mile chase division but having got the the front after the second last he faded up the hill. I had previously been of the opinion he was vulnerable in a finish but had come full circle before last years Festival but the cold hard fact of the matter is in what was a weaker Champion Chase than what he will face this season he failed to get the job done. The two times in his career that he has raced in Britain he has been below par and maybe he just doesn’t travel well but Willie Mullins says he’s training him differently now and he thinks it suits the horse better and we will see a better version of him at Cheltenham this year. I’ll believe it when I see it. Nube Negra 10/1 will likely be ridden cold out the back in the hope of coming late and picking up some pieces for place money. Unless there is a massive blow out by the big two the best he can hope for is third. It would be negligible not to mention Envoi Allen 20/1 who is amongst the entries for this race. He came to last years Festival with the world at his feet but took a heavy fall and he hasn’t looked the same Envoi since then. Henry De Bromhead could get him back to his best this really would be a race to savour. As things stand you couldn’t back him but if the flame could be reignited then he would be a player.

Selection: Energumene 3/1

Race five is the Cross Country and often there’s a standout contender in this and though we still have one of, if not probably the best known horse in training Tiger Roll 9/4 we must remember he’s 12 now and has alot of miles on the clock it wouldn’t be a surprise if there was some young gun that will come and brush him aside this year. We can’t go on expecting for him to rock up here and transform into the Tiger of old out of the blue like he seemed to do last year. We would all love the fairytale win for Tiger and for him to go out on a high with one last Festival victory but thats just what it is a fairytale and for me it doesnt look likeky. Likewise Easysland 10/1 was electric in this race in 2020 but has been seldom seen since and was well below the heights of his 2020 running last year when he finished second.  He has recently moved to Jonjo O’Neill for what reason I don’t know but with the credentials this horse has and the discipline of choice one would think he’d have been better served heading to Enda Bolger. Recently JP McManus purchased a new French Cross Country horse Prengarde 4/1 who has moved to Enda Bolger and he would be of obvious interest if he turned up but only a few days ago Enda said he was looking for a prep run for him and he didn’t seem keen on running him without one. That would be cause to hold fire on him for now. That said if he turns up on the day he would be just the type to turn up and just run away with this. Midnight Maestro 10/1 has been getting accustomed to life over the banks ever since making the switch to the Enda Bolger stable. While he didn’t run great over the banks round Cheltenham back in the Autumn he has since proven very effective in this discipline winning at Punchestown last time under a great ride from Mark Walsh. He jumped really well that day and I think its really coming together for him. If he can handles the track hes sure to make the frame. Ajas 10/1 is a really high class chaser in France and he was a fancy of mine last season but he didn’t make the trip. This season having had Easysland taken from his yard I wonder would David Cottin be tempted to make the trip and try get some compensation against those connections. He’s has loads of experience in cross country races and as an eight year old he should be in around the peak of his powers now. One further down the list that could run well is Mortal 14/1 who had his first start in this discipline back in December and ran with plenty credit to finish fourth. I’m sure he has done plenty schooling since then and may have been to the course to school since which is something Gordon often does. A horse like him could take a step forward and in an open year like this one he certainly has claims. Another twelve year old worthy of at least a mention is Singing Banjo 40/1 who was in the form of his life in the past year winning twice at the Punchestown Festival before rocking up at Cheltenham twice in the Autumn for the Cross Country handicaps finishing second from well out of the handicap on the first occasion before tiring late on to finish seventh beaten twenty one lenghts last time. He’s been off since with the intention to come here fresh and it would be great to see him run well for connections at the Festival! It was a surprise to see Delta Work 7/1 schooling alongside Tiger Roll around the cross country course during the week and while he undoubtedly has the ability to go well he lacks experience in this discipline which is vital over the banks. I’d rather watch him than back him until we have evidence that he handles the unique test of jumping and stamina that the race presents.

Selections: Prengarde 4/1 (if he runs) Midnight Maestro 10/1 (EW)

Dangers: Ajas 10/1 (EW)

The Grand Annual is up next and it is a wide open event. There’s plenty Novices hovering around the top of the betting at the moment and ordinarily there’s a hot favourite in the Arkle that everyone will be trying to avoid so you could bank on most of them turning up here. That’s not that case this year though as the Arkle is such a wide open race and I can see plenty taking their chance in the Grade 1 instead. Ciel De Neige 8/1 heads the market here but I hope he goes to the Arkle. Between Willie Mullins favouring graded chases to handicaps and the British handicapper getting his hands on that 148 irish mark I can see their hand being forced into the Arkle anyway. Brave Seasca 9/1 has been in great form over fences winning three of his five starts in handicap ranks before running very well in behind Edwardstone in the Kingmaker. That defeat might just push them to a handicap rather than taking on Edwardstone again and I’d be in favour of that. He’s got a rating of 146 over fences and I think that’s well within his compass. Buddy Rich 9/1 is rather short in the market I think. He has an Irish mark of 138 and I’m expecting 144 or 145 once the British handicapper assesses him. He’s a very infrequent winner and his run style sets up for him to regularly look eye-catching in my opinion without ever threatening to win. His sole victory over fences came over Ballyadam who completely flopped as a chaser and has returned to hurdles since buy hasn’t found any kind of form there either. I’d be happy to take on Buddy Rich but can see him running into a place again. Coeur Sublime 10/1 has made a good start to his chasing career having twice finished in behind Ferny Hollow including at Grade 1 level he won his third chase start at Gowran Park on Thyestes day. At his peak over hurdles he was rated 155 in ireland so his chase mark of 148 looks tempting even with the standard increase he might get away with three or four extra pounds. With that kind of rating a weak Grade 1 might be too tough to resist but he would be a definite player wherever he turns up. Amarillo Sky 12/1 has made slower progress than others over fences but the form of the Tizzard yard may have had something to do with that. He’s won two of his five starts over fences and ran with alot of credit on others. He also bumped into Brave Seasca who was running off 128 at Ascot now 18lbs higher only going down by three lenghts. He will meet Brave Seasca on 14lbs better terms if they meet here and that sort of weight could make all the difference. At 12/1 he is a very tempting looking price and I suspect he could go off half that on the day! Red Rookie 20/1 could be a real sleeper in the market. He has won one of his three starts over fences and fell early when he went off favourite to beat both Brave Seasca and Amarillo Sky at Ascot. He’s another one who will meet Brave Seasca on 14lbs better terms in here and that formline is one I really like. He’s a very well handicapped horse and I think he has 10lbs in hand. Hopefully he can show how well handicapped he is in a race like this. Andy Dufresne 16/1 would be an interesting runner if he turned up. He was a borderline Grade 1 Novice over fences last season and while I doubt it was the plan to have had only one run this season I could definitely see the case for him being better than his irish mark of 152. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does and he looks worth a go in a handicap off a big weight rather than being thrown in at the deep end in what looks like a high class Champion Chase. Embittered 16/1 looks like he could still have some juice left in his mark off an Irish mark of 141. He has form tied in with plenty good Novices from last season and has plenty experience under his belt. He’s a second season novice and finished third in the 2020 County Hurdle off a mark of 146 a similar mark here would make him competitive. Last one to get a mention is Charles Byrnes Poseidon 25/1 who is being plotted for something at the moment and this could be it. He finished a close second to Embittered in a Beginners Chase at Killarney back in the Autumn and has a handicap rating of 138 in Ireland. His sole victory over fences came at Cork off a mark of 130 where he easily beat Grange Walk whose now rated 16lbs higher. He kicked Grange Walk aside easily that day hardly coming off the bridle. I suspect this could be the race for him and any market support would be very significant.

Selections: Red Rookie 20/1 (EW) Amarillo Sky 12/1 (EW)

Danger: Posiedon 25/1 (EW)

The final race on day two is the Champion Bumper and what a race we have to look forward to. I’m sure most will have been impressed by Facile Vega 1/1 who took the field apart at the Dublin Racing Festival last time to record a bloodless success. He looked a weapon that day he did I won’t dispute it visually it was a hell of a performance but do I want to believe my eyes? No I don’t. He appeared to take a huge step forward from his debut win at Christmas and I think his actual level is somewhere in between the initial tough galloping performance and the second where he showed a potent turn of foot. I’ll be happy to take him on here. If he wins he wins but he’s very short and the horse with the biggest brightest future doesn’t always win the bumper. Actually the probably rarely win the bumper. I’ll be taking two against the field. The first will be American Mike 3/1 who has routed his opposition in his three starts to date. The first was a point to point at Cork where he won by twenty lengths for Sean Doyle before making the move to Gordon Elliott. Since joining Gordon he has taken the tried and tested Elliott bumper route starting off in Down Royal before taking in a Listed bumper in Navan and being put away for the spring. The second horse that will carry my cash is the impressive Christmas winner Redemption Day 13/2 who blew me away on the day. He breezed through the race that day under a motionless Patrick Mullins which we don’t see very often. He quickened up smartly to leave his rivals for dead. Its worth noting that after the victory of Facile Vega at the Dublin Racing Festival the Mullins team said they didn’t think there was much between the two on their homework. When I hear that and ones 1/1 and the other is 13/2 I’d happily take that and take my chances. Not to mention Willie Mullins may have a great record in the bumper but more often than not its something other than his first string that takes the spoils. James Gate 12/1 sent twitter into meltdown little over a week ago winning on debut at Punchestown but I wasn’t that impressed to be honest. He got his own way infront and got first run on a horse who had been well beaten on a couple of previous starts for Charles Byrnes and a newcomer of Edward O’Gradys. I personally thought having looked like he was initially going to power away when he was shaken up he didn’t really go anywhere from the wings of what would be the last hurdle up to the line so I’d be very lukewarm on him. The Big Doyen 50/1 has seen a huge overreaction from the market on the back of what wasn’t his true running last time. I loved him earlier in the season and Peter Fahey has a good line on bumper form with Battling Bessie who finished behind American Mike in Navan and a narrow second in a photo finish in the Grade 2 Mares Bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival. If Peter thinks he’s a weapon then I’d trust him he’s a very shrewd man and has had some very good horses through his hands. He might not be on the same level as the the top two or three in the betting but he definitely has a hell of alot better chance than the market is giving him credit for now and I wouldn’t put anyone off a little eachway play. His early season form might not be hectic but he did it with style and he has the frame to match I wouldn’t like to dismiss him. Lastly there’s a bumper horse belonged to Rich Ricci that won two bumpers in France and is heading straight to Cheltenham I can’t even tell you his name Rich just calls him Hoola Hoop because his friend name us too long and complicated to be saying all the time. If he turns up he literally could be anything it will be interesting to see if he gets an entry which I think is the intention so keep an eye out.

Selections: American Mike 3/1 Redemption Day 7/1 (EW)

Danger: The Big Doyen 50/1 (EW)

“Do you give the horse its strength or clothe its neck with a flowing mane? Do you make it leap like a locust striking terror with its proud snorting? It paws fiercely, rejoicing in its strenght, and charges into the fray. It laughs at fear, afraid of nothing, it does not shy away from the sword. The quiver rattles against its side, along with the flashing spear and lance. In frenzied excitement it eats up the ground; it cannot stand still when the trumpet sounds.”

Day Three kicks off is the Turners Novices Chase where Bob Olinger 5/4 heads the market. He was scintillating in the Ballymore last season where his kicked aside Gaillard Des Mesnil and Bravemansgame with the minimum of fuss. He has only tasted defeat once in his career so far in a Maiden Hurdle at Gowran Park last season when Ferny Hollow got the better of him. Since then he’s been near flawless and nothing has gotten close to beating him. People were crabbing his jumping on his chase debut but I was the opposite actually I couldn’t have been happier. He was great up until three out where he jumped the fence great but just pecked a bit at the back of it. In my opinion that peck was solely down to his inexperience coupled with the sheer speed he went down to that fence at. He literally took off when given an inch of rein when he entered the straight. If he had wings he would have flown, he was going that fast. He will have learned plenty from that and better to learn sooner rather than later. As for the last, that wasn’t Bob making a mistake it was down to Darragh O’Keeffe deciding to be safe and just get from A to B rather than risking throwing away the race by doing something stupid at the last. Next time he was the ultimate professional and looked to have a race on his hands turning in when Capodanno quickened to try get him at it Bob quickened with him and quickened again on the run fence to the last. Not many horses are capable of doing something like that and it will take a proper horse to pose him any trouble knowing the gears he has under the bonnet. Willie Mullins has hinted that he will send Gallopin Des Champs 7/4 here instead of the Brown Advisory but if history has thought us anything it is that Willie Mullins runs his horses in the race he thinks they have the best chance of winning. I think closer to the timw he will see sense and realise he has a better chance of beating Bravemansgame game in a race he would likely go off odds on rather than taking on Bob Olinger here. As for the opposition L’homme Presse 7/2 has done nothing wrong over fences to date. He’s the perfect four from four having made his chase debut in a handicap off 128 and progress all the way to a Grade 1 victory in the Scilly Isles last time at Sandown. That wasn’t a strong field that day but he couldn’t have been much more impressive. He’s only had eight lifetime starts so there could still be loads of improvement to come. He’s the best of the British over this distance for sure but as for being a match for Bob Olinger I say no chance. Jungle Boogie 12/1 is one of the most interesting runners of the entire meeting. He’s an eight year old who’s had just the three career starts to date and he has been super impressive on all three. He’s a big imposing beast with loads of size and scope but obviously at this stage of his career he must of had his problems to be so lightly raced. That said he’s a talent individual and we have no idea where his ceiling is. If he turned up here he would be well worth a few quid eachway at a decent price. I think he can definitely get himself in the shake up at the business end of the race. Gaillard Du Mesnil 25/1 could turn up here having chased home Bob Olinger in the Ballymore last season but he looked a slow stayer to me then and he still looks a slow stayer to me now. I’d give him a much better chance eachway over three miles in the Brown Advisory than if he ran here. I wouldn’t like to completely dismiss Gabynako 50/1 who would have place claims if he got back to his best. He probably should have won the Drinmore at Fairyhouse when he took the field along at a break neck gallop and had the whole field in trouble early when his jumping was exemplary but when he needed good jumps at the last two fences he made a couple of horrible mistakes and threw the race away. His most recent run in Limerick was flat which you could attribute to a hard race in the Drinmore or to the usual bad ground that u get in Limerick over Christmas and he just got bogged down. He’s clearly a talented individual and on a bit of nice ground he could definitely run into a place.

Selection: Bob Olinger 5/4

Danger: Jungle Boogie 12/1

The Pertemps is the second race on Thursdays card and its a muddling handicap after a season of many uncompetitive qualifiers especially in Britain where you have six and seven runner fields with the first six qualifying for this race. The system has broken down completely and needs to be examined going forward. On the other hand the qualifiers have been extremely competitive in Ireland as usual with huge fields actually competing against eachother for the coveted spots as opposed to trotting around just to complete and qualify. Sporting John 8/1 heads the market having returned to form this season winning once over course and distance in November off a mark of 146 before disappointing back here in December off a 5lb higher mark. He then went on to win a qualifier at Warwick in January with very little fuss at all really and won under hands and heels. It’s hard to gauge the level of form achieved though when assessing these small field races but I’d like to think there’s better handicapped and more reliable horses in the race than him with greater potential to improve. Dunboyne 9/1 looks to be the chief Irish runner in the field. He’s lightly raced and has maiden hurdle form that reads well having finished runner up to the likes of Bob Olinger and Capodanno last season. He has had just the eight runs over hurdles to date so he should still be improving. It looks like this has long been the plan taking in a couple of qualifiers along the way getting used to the hustle and bustle of a competitive big field handicap. He should be more street wise now. With the trainers good record in the race and a very attractive handicap mark that should see him carry a nice weight he has everything in his favour to run a big race. Anyone that fancies Sire De Berlais 10/1 would want their head examined. Fine he won the race twice in the past but that was off of lower marks at a time when he feasibly was progressive but in the past two seasons he has been rather lackluster failing to fire on several occasions and is currently rated higher than he was for either of his victories. I think he’s a horse on the downgrade and if he was to run he would simply be making up the numbers. The handicapper has been very kind to Alaphilippe 10/1 dropping him 2lbs for a seasonal debut where he was beaten just over eight lengths in what was no more than a schooling gallop to keep his mark for the Festival. Trainer Fergal O’Brien learned his lesson from last season where he won the Warwick qualifier with Imperial Alcazar who was strongly fancied for the Festival but he found the penalty for that win too much to handle. He ran a good fifth in last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Festival and a mark of 138 looks lenient. Rightplacerightime 12/1 will have a nervous wait to see whether or not he gets in at the foot of the weights and the worry would be that the British handicapper will leave him on a low mark to try keep him out. He ran a stormer to finish second to the well handicapped Good Time Jonny of Tony Martins a the Dublin Racing Festival. He also represents connections of The Shunter who plundered some big prizes in Britain last season before going on to Festival glory in the Plate. If he gets in I’ll be a definite backer. There’s no telling where his progression will take him with his new yard and he’s most definitely well handicapped. If he gets in he will be right down at the foot of the weights and I have no doubt he will go off favourite. Dallas Des Pictons 16/1 is another Gordon Elliott inmate who would have a live chance in this race. He looks like he will have a good racing weight and i would suggest he will have the Cheltenham maestro Davy Russell in the saddle. He’s run really well at two previous Festivals finishing second and fifth in two Martin Pipes off very similar marks to what he will be running off here. He’s definitely one for the shortlist. The Big Galloper 14/1 won a qualifier around Musselburgh recently having cruised into contention in the straight he put the race to bed fairly quickly going to the last and won snug at the line. He hails from the Charles Byrnes yard which will price the ears of many. He will carry a low weight if he runs and has eachway claims. My one slight concern is whether or not he has the class to win this sort of race. For now I’ll give him a skip I think. If there was one at a big price in here that would be Whatsnotoknow 25/1 for Mouse Morris. The stable may be short on quality at the moment compared to what he had in the past but Mouse can ready one for the Festival as well as anyone. He has really appreciated the step up in trip despite his keen going nature. He ran a stormer last time in a qualifier at Leopardstown behind Good Time Jonny and Rightplacerightime. He’s another who could get in at the foot of the weights and may be missed in the market even though his form claims would be strong. This might not be his day in the sun but he has a good pot in him.

Selections: Dunboyne 9/1 (EW) Rightplacerightime 12/1 (EW)

Danger: Dallas Des Pictons 25/1 (EW)

Race three is one of the feature races of the day the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase and again we have a warm order favourite in here in the shape of Allaho 10/11 who did a demolition job in this race last year. He took up the running early under Rachel Blackmore and kicked opponent after opponent aside as they tried to keep tabs on him and failed. Even those who were held up out the back and came to challenge turning for home expecting to pick up the pieces fell in a hole from the searing pace and ultimate test of stamina the race turned into. He was imperious on the day and I expect more of the same thing year unfortunately for his rivals. He’s had a much more consistent season so far this time around having won both starts at Punchestown and Thurles. He seems as good as ever and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t make it back to back Ryanair chases here. Shan Blue 10/1 was in the process of winning by about a furlong at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall before he fell three out. That was going to be a big performance so he’s obviously a talented horse but the form of that race hasn’t worked out since and he was beaten fair and square in last seasons Turners Novices Chase after Harry Skelton got a rush of blood to the head and went for home miles too far out. He still has a handicap mark of 148 and if he was mine I’d rather go win a handicap instead of being crushed by Allaho after getting into a pace war on the front end and being a goner before they run down the hill. Conflated 10/1 won the Irish Gold Cup last time in no uncertain fashion having born priced up initially as 50/1 outsider of the field. He travelled all over everything that day and jumped like a stage but that running is probably too good to be true. Having said that it was still the performance of his life by some distance and there’s nothing to say he can’t be improving. I’d rather see him chance his arm in a Gold Cup personally but Michael O’Leary does love trying to win his own race and has often sent horses that would have been better suited running elsewhere to the Ryanair just to have runners in his own race. He would have place claims maybe but I certainly couldn’t see him beating Allaho. Fakir D’oudaries 12/1 won the Grade 1 Ascot Chase over the weekend beating the best of the British in whatbwas an absolute slog. With less than four weeks until the Ryanair I’d worry that race will have left its mark on him and I’d be very cautious about putting any hard earned cash on him to back up that performance at the Festival. If we did learn anything from the race it was that the British grades chasers aren’t up to much which I think alot of people suspected already. Asterion Forlonge 20/1 is undoubtedly a horse of immense talent. He would likely have beaten Allaho at Punchestown in the John Durkan only for falling at the third last fence where he seemed to be travelling all over the field. But he seems to make these serious errors at some point every day that puts him under on the back foot I his races if not takes him out of it altogether. You’d be brave to let him carry your money and I’d rather watch him pull off a miracle and get round in front than back him to do so. Melon 16/1 has a fantastic festival record finishing second in a Supreme, two Champion Hurdles and a Turners. The one blot on his festival copybook was in this race last season but I’d forgive him that with the lack of crowds. He comes alive at the Festival infront of the packed crowd and he could easily get himself in the frame again. Janadil 14/1 was second to Allaho in the John Durkan and though he ran disappointingly over Christmas he bounce back to form with a good third in the Irish Gold Cup last time. I’d be happy to see him step back in trip here again and he’s likely to be held up off the pace to try come and pick up the pieces late on.

Selection: Allaho 10/11

Dangers: Janidil 14/1 (EW)                          Melon 16/1 (EW)

Onto the Stayers Hurdle we go and the market here has been flip flopping all season. We have had some big performances in the division this season which has seen big moves in the market but equally we have seen major disappointments. So the market has eventually settled with the reigning champ as favourite simply because he didn’t come out of his stable since Christmas and most of his rivals let themselves down in the meantime. Flooring Porter 7/2 heads the market and he’s probably the right favourite. He’s only a seven year old but has achieved plenty in his career to date from graduating through the handicap ranks to winning a couple of Grade 1s last season first at Leopardstown and then this race twelve months ago. He hasn’t won yet this season which may come as a surprise for a favourite in a Grade 1 at the Festival but he has run with plenty credit in defeat.  He is a precocious character and likes to dictate things from the front. He jumps to his right and can be keen all around he’s a bit of a nutter and that’s my biggest worry for him at the Festival. Even though he’s a previous Festival winner he’s never experienced it with a crowd. He hasn’t experienced any crowd since February 2020 and I would worry the occasion will get the better of him. At 7/2 while he may be the most likely to run his race if we were still behind closed doors I’m not sure if I want to trust him with a full house. Thyme Hill 5/1 is was a very good novice two seasons ago while he was in and around antepost favourite for this race most of last season before picking up an injury and eventually missing the festival. He gained consolation at Aintree at the end of last season winning the three mile Grade 1 there and I think we all expected him to kick on from there but he went to France for his seasonal debut and got stuffed by forty one lengths before running second in the Long Walk at Ascot. It’s hard to know where you stand with him or any of the Hobbs horses there form can be very ordinary and then we have a bolt from the blue and something puts inna career best before fizzling out next time. He has a chance if he brings his A game but I’m not sure I trust him to do that and there’s no juice in his price. Champ 5/1 has always had a big reputation but I think that’s been because of who he’s named after not from anything he’s done on the track. His Grade 1 track record is far from an honour list of stars, for example he beat Getaway Trump who is a temperamental handicapper in the Challow, got beat by City Island in a Ballymore who subsequently has done absolutely nothing, beat Emitom in a Grade 1 at Aintree again has done absolutely since, beat Minella Indo and Allaho in an RSA where he was stuffed all ends up until Allaho stopped from lack of stamina and Minella Indo idled all the way from the last almost stopping to a walk and got mugged which is now the only piece of form people can try talk him up for because the rest is rubbish, pulled up in a Gold Cup and beat Thyme Hill in a Long Walk. He’s a grand horse don’t get me wrong but you have plenty horses in here that have better form to their names and have beaten some proper horses. I’ll be taking him on all day long! Klassical Dream 5/1 is a bit of a head case and has had plenty problems in his time but I have no doubt on his day he’s the most talented of all of these.  He’s a former Supreme winner and a five time Grade 1 winning hurdler. On his day he is scintillating and is a good deal more consistent then people give him credit for. I’d draw a line through his defeat at Gowran Park he was miles below form but he had and incredibly tough race at Christmas against Flooring Porter where the two pulled miles clear of the field. They went like hell from flag fall and in what was a titanic battle Klassical Dream came out on top. Now the one worry you could have may be that he could get lit up and take Flooring Porter early on but I think the field should be big enough for Paul Townend to get him plenty cover and the more energy he can keep in reserve the more difficult he will be to beat up the hill. Paisley Park 7/1 bounced back to form last time at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle at the end of January having been left at the start. He’s ten now and in the last two seasons he’s been thoroughly inconsistent disappointing more often than not. I think the small field last time, racing against inferior opposition and a soft Champ who may have bounced from his return at Ascot had something to do with the return to form. I wouldn’t believe for a second that he can turn back time as such to win again at the Festival as nice and all as that would be. I’d be shocked if he is the best staying hurdler around at this point of his career or even in the top five. There is speculation that Asterion Forlonge 10/1 will turn up here but I don’t think you can back him with any degree of confidence. He’s seldom a winner these days and over hurdles or fences in his career his jumping hasn’t been anything to write home about. He’s prone to mistakes be that because he doesn’t concentrate he’s just doesn’t have the natural ability for jumping I don’t know. There would also be a doubt about whether he truly stays this sort of trip. We know he has a serious engine there’s no disputing that but in a championship race around Cheltenham. The one saving grace for him is there is very little jumping in the last mile of the race but if that’s the straw we are clutching we might as well go all out and hope for some low sun to take out a couple of more too. Royal Kahala 10/1 is a name plenty have floated about but I’d honestly be disappointed if she won this. She’s a grand mare don’t get me wrong but she’s not an open class Grade 1 mare and I’d be disappointed if she made the frame. Connections have made no secret that she likes a good dig in the ground and while three miles is probably her trip she would be closer to winning the Mares Hurdle than this and I don’t think she has anything other than a small place chance in the Mares. Burning Victory 33/1 is the one at a wild price that if she ran would make the most appeal to me. She’s a previous Festival winner, she will handle decent ground, the trip shouldn’t be an issue, she has shown on the flat she has a touch of class about her and getting 7lbs it wouldn’t be the craziest result in the world if she got involved. She gave weight to Buzz in the Cesarewich when finishing second and Buzz would be favourite if her ran here only for his injury woes. I’d like to see her give it a go. I think she’s made for it.

Selection: Klassical Dream 5/1 (EW)

Danger: Burning Victory 33/1 (EW)

The Paddy Powe Plate is a devilishly tricky handicap chase but I will do my best to solve it for you. Celebre D’allen 13/2 heads the market for this one but for the life of me I can’t understand why. He’s a ten year old who used be stabled with David Pipe before he spent some time in France and is now with Philip Hobbs. He’s won two hurdles and a chase since joining Philip Hobbs but those wins were off ratings of 120, 126 and 135. He went up 6lbs for his recent win over fences at Warwick to 141 where he just ran down a twelve year old on the run in who was running off just 1lb below his career high mark and had been up on the pace the whole way. We can hardly say that the form of the race is strong. I don’t rate the form of those in behind either. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s the worst value horse at the entire festival. Imperial Alcazar 8/1 absolutely bolted up over course and distance last time but may well have left his race behind him in doing so. He’s off 152 now so will have plenty of weight on his back but he’s a huge horse so should be able to carry a big weight and still has eachway claims. It would be great to see Fergal O’Brien train a Cheltenham Festival winner. He may have left a festival win behind him when winning a Pertemps trial at Warwick last season and he may well be better served by a good test over this trip and fences anyway. He always looked a chaser but how much more has he left in his mark is the question. Birchdale 10/1 was on my radar for a good handicap chase for a while and having just faded from the back of the last in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas he dropped back from three miles to two miles five and a half furlongs last time and he absolutely sluices in under a beautiful ride from young Mark McDonagh. I don’t think he did a tap when he hit the front that day off a mark of 133. He’s gone up 8lbs since to 141 and if the handicapper doesn’t go too hard from him he’s more than capable of running a big race here. He loves a good test over this sort of trip and he will come traveling there turning in I’ve no doubt about that. He has to go very close. The Shunter 12/1 is also well found in the market having won the race last year of a mark of 140 with Jordan Gainford taking off a valuable 7lbs on the day he was thrown in. He has a mark of 153 in Ireland now though and with an extra couple of pounds on that he might find things difficult. You’d hope there’s more progressive horses in the field than him but maybe he will just prove his love for the track and the weight won’t be an issue. I’d be happy to take him on at the prices though. Fusil Raffles 14/1 could benefit from the generous favour of the British handicapper who has dropped him to a mark of 149 having started the season on 156. Looking back over his season I’m not sure exactly how he’s ended up with this rating. This season he’s ran second to Bravemansgame trying to concede him 12lbs which we know was an impossible task. The handicapper dropped him 4lbs on the back of that. He was a fortuitous winner of his next start in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall but a winner none the less and the handicapper didn’t penalise him. He then ran fourth beaten less than five lengths in the Racing Post Gold Cup over course and distance and the handicapper dropped him another generous pound. Last time he finished fifth in a slog at Doncaster when he blatantly didn’t stay and as a result he’s ended up down another 2lbs to that mark of 149. He looks well weighted on his best form and will surely run well. If he doesn’t then it’s not from want of trying by the handicapper that’s for sure. Off You Go 25/1 eachway is a dark horse in here he was a winner of 140 over fences last season in an ultra competitive handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival he’s rated 146 in Ireland now and has a couple of tune up races so far this season one over hurdles and last time over three miles over fences but its fair to say he wasnt off either day. It will be interesting what mark her gets but he’s a talented individual and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he appeared going well turning in. Palmers Hill 25/1 was an early season fancy for this race and I’m surprised to see him as big in the market as he is now. If he’s an intended runner I’d see him going off considerably shorter on the day. He was a good winner of his first two chase starts and now off a mark of 142 I think there’s still scope for improvement. Back on a decent surface and with a good pace to aim at I can see the case for him going really well. One horse from a small yard that could be underestimated would be West Cork Wildway 25/1 for Paul O’Flynn. He was rated 132 over hurdles last season running with credit in plenty good races. He took the scalp of The Bosses Oscar in a Beginners Chase at Thurles in November and off a low weight he could shock a few. He jumps well and will race handy which is normally a help in this. I’ll be hoping for a mark in the mid to high 130s and off something like that he would could be a danger. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Selections: Birchdale 10/1 (EW)           Fusil Raffles 14/1 (EW)

Danger: Palmers Hill 25/1 (EW)

The Mares Novices Hurdle is up next and Willie Mullins has a plethora of chances in here. Allegorie De Vassy 7/2 heads the market and I’m a bit wishy washy on her if I’m honest. She beat Monishter Are Mwee on her debut for Willie Mullins at Fairyhouse getting 6lbs which isn’t great form by any means and I thought she looked slow if I’m honest. On her second start she went to the Solerina in Fairyhouse where she beat Brandy Love 4/1 but I think she was lucky on the day to win. Grangee came down at the second last and Brandy Love jumped violently out to her left up the straight and threw away her chance. Back going left handed I think that form will be reversed in no uncertain fashion and don’t forget Allegorie De Vassy will have to carry a 5lb penalty for her win in the Solerina which could very well be vital. While I think Brandy Love will reverse the form with Allegorie De Vassy I wouldn’t be keen on her either. I don’t think she’s a straight forward mare at all I think the festival atmosphere could get her lit up and she could pull too hard. She hasn’t got much in the way of scope either, i know people will tell me that doesn’t matter over hurdles but I think it does and I’ll be taking her on too. The one I’m really keen on is Dinoblue 6/1 who is a half sister to Blue Sari and runs in the Green and Gold of JP McManus. She won on her debut at Clonmel on the 6th of January and she won in a hack canter beating two stablemates. She was electric that day. She jumped great, travelled well and her turn of foot was simply sublime in the straight. She shot clear of her rivals and won easily. Now she has very little experience obviously which is the one negative but she looked really professional when we did see her and she has any amount of improvement in her. I think she could be really good and she would be one if my strongest fancies on the week. Grangee 12/1 wouldn’t interest me very much the form of her maiden hurdle win hasnt worked out at all and while she ran fine at Christmas off a slow pace in a Grade 1 against the geldings she was flattered by how close up she finished and of course she fell last time in the Solerina. Elle Est Belle 7/1 for the home team I think is too short she’s won two of her three starts over hurdles but I don’t think she jumps well enough and lacks the pace go be competitive here and will be carrying a penalty. She might be running on late to try sneak into a place but I think she’s a long way off winning this. Fine she ran well staying on late in the Champion Bumper last season but I wouldn’t have her on my mind. Party Central 7/1 is very short I think she’s been fine over hurdles nothing spectacular and she will also have to carry a penalty. She won well at the Dublin Racing Festival but that was a handicap off a low rating and to be honest I’d be much happier to see her run in something like the Coral Cup that in here. I think she lacks the pace for a Graded race over two miles and she’s another one like Elle Est Belle I can see staying on late in the day for place money but the bird will have flown at that stage and she won’t be winning this. Imperious 14/1 looks overpriced to me while she will be carrying a penalty she won three  hurdles over varying trips back in the Autumn before finishing a close up fifth in the Royal Bond where she made a mistake at the last in what wasn’t a truly run race. She’s a tough mare with a nice bit of experience under her belt. She will go there fresh and Colm Murphy knows the time of day and has trained festival winners at the top level in the past so she can go well. The other overpriced one is Statuaire 20/1 she’s a Grade 1 winner albeit fortuitous in the Royal Bond she was well beat behind Sir Gerhard last time and maybe she had a hard race but she’s got a better chance than her price suggests and at the prices she wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world.

Selection: Dinoblue 6/1 (EW)

Danger: Impervious 14/1 (EW)

The Kim Muir is the final race of the day and its another for the amateur riders. This race has often been a race the Irish have done well in especially in recent seasons which probably has alot to do with the embarrassment of riches we have in the way of amateur jockeys. A Beginners Chase from Fairyhouse in January with all of the first three home separated by no more than half a lenght. Not only do all three hold entries here but they are all stabled in Gordon Elliotts. Frontal Assualt 5/1 heads the market and is a clear favourite. He has an Irish mark of 139 and looked last time like he was crying out for a step up in trip. All his best form in Ireland came over three miles and now he has gained some chasing experience over two and a half on his first three starts over fences. He ran fine in the Martin Pipe finishing in eight off a mark of 136. That experience will have done him the world of good going back in search of festival glory this year. He’s already proven himself a better chaser and we just wait for a mark from the British handicapper now. I wouldn’t put anyone off. Floueur 14/1 came home infront despite being wayward at the last at Fairyhouse and has an Irish mark of 141. He has four good runs over fences under his belt including a third in an Irish Grand National Trial. He’s another that ran in the Martin Pipe last year and he ran a stormer to finish third off a mark of 143. We know he handles the track and with a not too dissimilar mark to what he raced off last year over hurdles he shouldn’t be far away. I’ve long been a huge fan of Grand Paradis 16/1 who is the final one of that Fairyhouse trio for Gordon Elliott. He’s a big imposing grey with size and scope to burn. He appreciates an ease in the ground which he hasn’t got most of this season so far. He’s been doing most of his racing so far in his career over two and a half mile including all his starts over fences. He is crying out for a step up in trip and could well be a Grand National horse for the future. I’ve had him on my mind for this race for a long time now and off an Irish mark of 139 he could be thrown in. He’s a graded horse running in a handicap. He will definitely feature in my bets on the day. I just can’t let him go unbacked. Ain’t That A Shame 12/1 is a horse light on experience with just the 6 starts to his name under rules including three maiden hurdles and three beginners chases. On his first two starts over fences he’s finished in behind Stattler and Gallopin Des Champs. He has an Irish mark of 137 which looks fair and he was only just touched off on a step up to three miles last time at Navan. He’s so lightly raced he could have any amount of improvement to come. He hails from the Henry De Bromhead yard so we know he’s well schooled. He shouldnt be underestimated. Champagne Platinum 16/1 has been reinvigorated by a move of stable from Nicky Henderson to Enda Bolger. He got the better of Ain’t That A Shame at Navan before finishing a staying on second in the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown ahead of Floueur. He has Festival experience to call upon having finished fifth in last seasons Pertemps having gone off favourite for this very race in 2020. Derek O’Connor was in the saddle that day and I expect he will take the ride here again. He was prone to mistakes in his days with Nicky Henderson but Enda Bolger has sorted all that out. He has an Irish mark of 139 and as long as the handicapper doesn’t get too carried away he’s bound to go close. Sorry to all my British readers but none of the British trained runners interests me and I’m certain we have already mentioned the winner in the five above.

Selections: Grand Paradis 16/1 (EW) Champagne Platinum 16/1 (EW)

Danger: Ain’t That A Shame 12/1 (EW)

“The beginning is the word and the end is the silence and inbetween are all the stories.”

Friday kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle and it looks like another cracking race to look forward to! Vauban 2/1 currently shades favouritism thanks to an impressive victory in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival. He did plenty wrong throughout the race and still won in impressive fashion. He was keen in Paul Townends hands, raced wide, he jumped out to his right and made a few fiddly errors but coming round the home bend he loomed up ominously. On the run to the last hurdle Paul Townend left out an inch of rein and the race was over he accelerated away at the back of the last to win comfortably under hands and heels. He still looked like he had plenty to learn so presuming he has improved since he could be very hard to beat. Pied Piper 9/4 is my idea of the winner. He’s a highly rated horse on the flat and has really taken to hurdles. He races very professionally, he’s a strong traveller, he jumps well, he has a turn of foot and has a touch of class about him. He beat Vauban half a lenght on debut at Punchestown before going to Cheltenham to race over course and distance for the Triumph. He absolutely hacked up that day never even coming off the bridle. He’s a horse with plenty potential and of the two he’s the more finished article and he’s the one I’ll be backing on the day. Fil Dor 11/2 was favourite for this race for much of the winter. He made his hurde debut at Down Royal  in October and backed up the promise of that run with wins Grade 3 and then Grade 2 victories at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown respectively. He was a festival banker for many until the top two came out of the woodwork on New Years Eve. It’s looks now he will have to make do with a place at best aa I can’t see him overturning the top two. Il Etait Temps 16/1 ran really well to be third on his Hurdle debut in a Grade 1 last time behind Vauban and Fil Dor respectively. At the last it looked like he would come with a real challenge or at the very least take second but I was disappointed with him from the back of the last to the line. He jumped well in the main and obvious he was ridden to learn from the experience and come home well. He has eachway claims maybe for third but I’d question whether or not he will come up the hill. At the prices I’d be happy to leave well enough alone. Porticello 12/1 has won three of his four hurdle starts to date. He was a Grade 1 winner at Chepstow in December. I think he wants a decent cut in the ground to be seen at his best. He had a fairly hard race last time in Haydock little over three weeks out from the festival and that would be a negative for me in regards to his festival chances. I wouldn’t want any horse I was thinking of putting having a hard race on bad ground so close to the festival especially not around Haydock of all places. He wouldn’t be for me. Doctor Parnassus 14/1 to me is the best of the British in here. He made an impressive hurdle debut at Ascot before following up in a weak race at Taunton but he jumps well and has a big engine. The form of his two hurdle runs to date isn’t anything to write home about but the style in which he disposed of the opposition was that of a high class juvenile and I could certainly see him running a very big race. One more that deserves a mention is Knight Salute 14/1 for Milton Harris. He’s five from five over hurdles beating some quality opposition along the way. He’s a course winner around Cheltenham in November and is the only horse so far to beat Porticello over hurdles. Hes had a mid season break and will go to the Festival on the back of a win at Kempton in the Adonis. He’s beat all before him so far this season and deserves to take his chance. I’d love to see him run well for what is a small yard but realistically I don’t see him making the frame.

Selection: Pied Piper 9/4

Danger: Doctor Parnassus 14/1 (EW)

The County Hurdle is the first handicap on the final day of the Festival and Top Bandit 7/1 heads the market but for the life of me I can’t understand why. He’s three from four over hurdles but the form of those races is poor to say the least. It’s fine to day a horse can only beat what’s infront of him but the pace and pressure that will come on in a race like the County takes horses out of their comfort zone and I think this will be a culture shock for him. The only thing I can say in his favour is at least he has a course win to his name but the form of that run hasn’t worked out particularly well. The second has come into his own over three miles so you’d wonder how he got so close to Top Bandit. I can’t have him. State Man 8/1 has a very similar profile to Saint Roi who won this race for Willie Mullins a couple of years ago. He started the season with a reputation of being a Supreme horse and a fall at Leopardstown over Christmas just halted his progress towards Grade 1 company for a while. He made his second start in a maiden hurdle at Limerick at very short odds and duly obliged in style. There’s no knowing where he’s ceiling is but he’s in the right care to reach his potential. If Mullins thinks he’s up to running in this on only his fourth lifetime start I think we should take notice. He’s a classy individual with loads of pace and a touch of class. He’s definitely one for the shortlist. West Cork 8/1 leads the British charge for Skeltons who are another team with a great record in the race. He was a winner of the Greatwood on the back of a 631 day layoff, off a mark of 134 with Adagio back in second thatbday who looks Champion Hurdle bound. He’s rated 141 now and ran a good race at Ascot last time but may have been feeling the affects of the layoff that day and bounced. They have freshened him up since giving him plenty time and I have no doubt this has been the plan for a long time. He has to be respected. Echoes In Rain 10/1 was a Grade 1 winning novice at the end of last season but I think she was flattered by what she achieved in poor races then. There was talk of her developing into a Champion Hurdle mare at the start of the season but she’s fallen a long way short of that mark since then. She has an Irish rating of 149 which seems lenient enough but I don’t see the British handicapper taking any chances. Willie has won this race a few times in the past dropping a classy horse out of Grade 1 company into this off a big weight but those horses were all of vastly superior ability to this mare and while she has an lower rating I’d be happy to oppose her. Her temperament would also be a big concern for me and I think the occasion could get to her. Slip Of The Tongue 14/1 would be of huge interest to me if he ran here. He’s a horse I’ve loved since his debut win in Tipperary when he came from miles off the pace to win. He’s kept good company since then taking on the likes of Saint Felicien who was once considered a Champion Hurdle prospect and chasing home the likes of Teahupoo and Quilixios at Limerick over Christmas. He has since got his second win in four starts beating Deploy The Getaway in a Listed Novice Hurdle at Punchestown and has an Irish mark of 138. Its hard to think he’s only five and so inexperienced with the company he’s been keeping up to now. He’s gained valuable experience against some good horses and he’s a horse on the up. He will probably need further in time but he has plenty pace and a good temperament. In a race like the County you need to stay well too to get up the hill. His jumping would be the one drawback but if he’s going to go to the next level he has to take in races like this and roll the dice. Padraig Roche seemed lukewarm on him turning up after his win last time but it wouldn’t be unlike connections to keep their cards close to their chest. I think he will run and if he does he could well continue his progression before ending up in one of these end of season Grade 1 Novices where I’ve no doubt he wouldn’t look out of place. My Mate Mozzie 16/1 should be a Grade 1 winning Novice by now only for making a mistake at the last in the Royal Bond earlier in the season. He’s a horse with a huge reputation, so much so he was given a Champion Hurdle entry. With all the superstars that have emerged in the Supreme and the likes of Appreciate It an intended runner in the Champion Hurdle Gavin Cromwell may well have looked at his irish mark of 141 and said to connections if you want your best chance of a Festival victory this is the way to go. He was well below par in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival but he never was put into the race that day and I’d say it may well have been used as a prep with this race in mind. He’s a keen going horse that has plenty pace and ability. He’d struggled to settle in his races in the past but a small field race against horses that are inferior can often be a struggle for a keen goer like him. I think the big field in this race will play into his hands to help him relax. He’s definitely got an eachway chance for a shrewd stable. Magic Tricks  16/1 was a big fancy of mine for this race last season but he didn’t get declared. He has since ran off a wide range of marks running well in alot of big handicaps but he’s been creeping up the handicap for while now without winning. It may be the case that he’s not the most resolute horse in a finish and while he can run well I’d worry about him even more in a finish up the Cheltenham hill. He’s got an Irish rating off 144 now which would push him into the high 140s bordering on 150 in Britain and that’s enough to stop him to my mind. Eskylane 25/1 could be interesting he’s a big imposing individual who beat Magic Tricks four and a half lengths getting a 1lb off a mark of 134 in Down Royal at the end of October. He’s 146 in Ireland now but the manner of victory that day would make you believe that he’s up to dealing with that sort of mark. Magic Tricks has franked the form since and would only be in receipt of 2lbs if they were to meet again in Ireland. That certainly wouldn’t be enough to come anywhere near reversing the form. Eskylane looks like the forgotten horse in the market to me. He’s been kept fresh since Down Royal with this race in mind I would presume. If he turns up he looks a great bet at the prices. One final horse on my radar is Surprise Package 33/1 for last years winning trainer Peter Fahey. This horse is a very strong traveller in his races and jumps particularly well. He loves the hustle and bustle of the big field handicaps in Ireland so I have no doubt he will handle a race like the County. He has an Irish rating of 129 which is the British mark his stablemate Belfast Banter won the race off of last year. Trainers are creatures of habit and I’m sure Fahey has had this race in mind for quite a while. Look he’s not a horse that I can see running in graded races off level weights but he is a well handicapped horse who I strongly believe will surprise a few at the Festival. He’s currently the same price as the stables winner last season so don’t let price put you off he definitely has a chance. I better give Anyharminasking 20/1 a mention. There will be plenty talk of his form beating Constitution Hill in an Irish point to point but he was a fortuitous winner that day and his form in Britain has been bang average in my opinion having won a couple of shocking handicaps around Catterick and Sedgefield on his last two starts. That’s not Cheltenham form and off a mark of 140 I can’t see him winning this race in a fit.

Selections: Slip Of The Tongue 14/1 (EW) Eskylane 25/1 (EW)

Danger: Surprise Package 33/1 (EW)

The Albert Bartlett is up next and this race traditionally isn’t for the inexperienced or the faint hearted. It used be the case that you needed a horse with lots of experience for this race but that has been less important in recent years. Minella Crooner 4/1 heads the betting in here for Gordon Elliott and he’s won four of his six career starts and on the other two he finished second. He won a point to point with John Nallen before moving to Gordons. He then won a bumper in Sligo, not exactly a breeding ground for champions and he followed up winning under a penalty at Punchestown. He made his hurdles debut at Leopardstown over two and a half miles at Christmas in a race that’s working out very well where he stayed on well late on to split Journey With Me and Kilcruit. He stepped up to three miles next time and picked up a Maiden Hurdle with the minimum of fuss before going back to Leopardstown for the two mile six Grade 1 where having made a mistake at the second last he stayed on well all the way to the line. I think he has surprised Gordon and his team just how far he’s gone this season and Gordon has had alot of darts at this race and is yet to find a winner in it. He looks like he will send a big quad to the race again this year but in a bid to win it and I don’t think Minella Crooner is the one to do that for him. Ginto 6/1 is another one for Gordon who has done little wrong in his career to date winning five of his six starts and finishing a close second on bumper debut the only day he was beat. He’s been good since then winning a bumper by eight lengths on his next start before being put away for a hurdling campaign this season. He’s gone a tried and tested rout Gordon Gordon taking in a maiden hurdle at Down Royal before  mopping up a Grade 2 at Navan and heading onto the Grade 1 at Naas all over two and  half miles. I thought he got his own may infront at Naas and over going slow he got first run on his rivals in the straight. I was a touch disappointed that he didn’t ease away from the field a bit easier that day and the form hadn’t worked out particularly well since. I think he’s best suited to two and a half miles but will find some horses too quick over that trip whereas I don’t think he will quite see out the three miles as well as others. He’s a big imposing horse that will improve for time and a fence but I don’t think he will be winning at the Festival this year. Hillcrest 9/2 is one for the home team that will attract plenty support and has a good career record of five wins from seven races with a second and an unseat on his other two starts. He is a giant of a horse who has been progressing away nicely. He was the winner of a Listed novice hurdle over two and a half miles at Cheltenham in January before unseating next time when he was sent off an odds on favourite for a Grade 2 over the same course and distance. He went to Haydock last Saturday under four weeks out from the festival and had a hard race on bottomless ground. I’d be concerned about that I hate seeing horses have really tough races so close to the festival and there would be a question mark over what he’s beaten up to now. He’s a likeable horse for a small stable and I hope he can go well but I don’t believe he’s up to Grade 1 level at the Festival. Shantreusse 9/1 would be a danger to all in here. He may only have five career starts but he’s taken some big jumps forward on each start and I believe he can do so again. He’s a fine physical specimen who has relished the step up to three miles on his last two starts. He’s a tough out and out galloper with plenty scope and he loves a battle. He was a Grade three winner on his most recent start on heavy ground at Clonmel in a race Henry De Bromhead like to target with his staying Novices on their way to the festival. I think he has s big chance and will be bang there going to the last. In what’s an open looking race on paper anything can happen after that and he looks overpriced to me. The Nice Guy 12/1 for Willie Mullins is probably the one I like the most in here. He has just the three starts to his name so far winning a pair of bumpers before a successful hurdle debut at Naas over two miles three last time. He comes across to me as an out and out stayed but there’s a touch of class about him too. He races very professionally, jumps really well and is well able to get down at battle when he needs to. He wouldn’t have the typical profile of an Albert Bartlett winner but there’s just something about him that suggests to me that his lack of experience won’t hold him back. I think 12/1 is very fair and I think he’s a great eachway bet. Bardenstown Lad 14/1 is probably your more typical Albert Bartlett type with nine runs under his belt consisting of six wins including a handicap win over course and distance off a mark of 130. He will be one of if not the most experienced and battle hardened runners in the field and that might stand to him. He looked better than ever winning at Musselburgh recently but it’s hard to gauge the level of form he achieved there. He has his chance but he won’t carry my money on the day as I believe Grade 1 company is a but beyond him. Hollow Games 10/1 looks to me to be Gordon Elliotts best chance in this race which I know will come as a surprise to many. He’s disappointed on a couple of occasions this season so far but I think the last twice in Grade 1 company those races haven’t been run to suit. He will appreciate the step up to three miles and he wants an out and out gallop. The harder they go in this race the better he will be and he will relish the Cheltenham Hill. If he gets a proper gallop to aim at I can see him going very close. Nothing will be staying on better than him that’s for sure and I think he’s worth giving another chance to.

Selections: The Nice Guy 12/1 (EW) Shantreusse 9/1 (EW)

Danger: Hollow Games 10/1 (EW)

The Gold Cup is the feature race on the fourth and final day of the Festival and traditionally the highlight of the whole week. While it might not be a vintage field this year its certainly a competitive race and hopefully it will be every bit as exciting as it look on paper. A Plus Tard 10/3 heads the betting and rightly so. He was runner up last season just finding his own stable mate Minella Indo too good on the day. He’s still only eight and is a former festival winner having bolted up in the 2019 Novice Handicap Chase. He handles the track, the trip will be fine and all ground comes alike to him. He possibly doesn’t want a real slog but he races very efficiently and jumps well so there aren’t many causes for concern. He has a touch of class and pace about him too being a previous Grade 1 winner over two miles. He probably has the best performance of the season to his name in the Betfair Chase where he absolutely routed the field with consumate ease. He’s sure to go close yet again. Galvin 4/1 is been in brilliant form all season and has progressed with every run to date. He beat Annanix at Punchestown in a Grade 3 before finding just Frodon too good in a the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Down Royal before nailing A Plus Tard on the line in The Savills at Leopardstown over Christmas. I believe A Plus Tard was well below the form of his Betfair Chase win that day. That piece of form by Galvin is well beyond anything else he’s achieved and I’d want to see him do it again before I believe it. At the beginning of the season connections felt he was more of a Grand National horse than Gold Cup horse and this being his third season over fences I’m not so sure where the sudden improvement into a Grade 1 chaser has come from so I’m sceptical that he’s been flattered by results so he’s one I’d want to take on rather than support. He’s a former Festival winner in the National Hunt Chase last season in what looked a good race at the time but it may be he beat a couple of handicappers rather than a couple of horses ready to kick on and go to the next level. I’m happy to be proven wrong as I’d live to see Davy Russell land another big one but I just can’t see it. He won’t be everyone’s cup of tea by any means but I really like Minella Indo 5/1 in here. He’s the reigning champ and always comes ro life at the Festival. Alot of people will tell you his form has been sub standard since his win in the race last year and it has there’s no point saying otherwise but he’s never been a horse that has been the most consistent or reliable away from the Fesstival. There’s just something about Cheltenham that he loves that brings him to life around here year in year out. I’ve no doubt he would be three from three at the Festival had he got company for longer in the 2020 RSA. His comeback was adequate in Down Royal before being very disappointing in the King George at Kempton but he was much more like himself last time in the Irish Gold Cup and I saw enough from him there to suggest that he will put up a strong bid to defend his crown. It will take a good one to go by him up the hill if he runs his race. Protektorat 8/1 is the leading British hope for the race and I really don’t see how he gets involved. I’ve long been a fan of the horse at Aintree past season when he won his Grade 1 as a Novice and again when he won the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at Aintree again at the beginning of December but the form of both of those races is nowhere near the level of form it would take to win a Gold Cup. Connections seem happy to have kept the illusion if being of having a live chance by not running him again since but I really feel if they had he would have been shown up by now. Your being asked to take what I perceive to be a very short price on him now especially with Pricewise Tom Segal and Paul Kealy rowing in with the Skelton inmate but I’d back several in this before I’d let him carry my money at that sort of price. Al Boum Photo 10/1 is next in the market and he’s had his traditional run at Tramore before a tilt at the Gold Cup that served him well in the past. He’s a dual Gold Cup winner and he was third in last years race when Mullins said since he felt the horse was short of fitness. He had intended giving him an extra run this year but the unseasonably quick ground during the first half of the season means that didn’t happen. He’s ten now and has had plenty hard races over the years. I can see him placing again possibly but I don’t think he will regain his crown at this hour of his life. Tornado Flyer 12/1 won the King George over Christmas but that was a really peculiar race and not much has run well out of that race since. He’s never looked a real stayer or Grade 1 horse to me and I don’t think there was ever the belief in Closutton that he could be up to that level. He’s often been ridden to pick up the pieces when others cry enough over varying trips but I can’t even see him being good enough to pick up the pieces here to be honest. It’s one thing to pick up the pieces around Kempton on good ground when you have a pace collapse but its a totally different test in a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Chantry House 18/1 has been winning egg and spoon races this season and the form of his win at last seasons festival over two and a half miles hasn’t worked out well at all. He was laboured throughout the Cotswolds Chase here in January and his jumping was sticky. I think he’s a long way off being a genuine Gold Cup contender and his jumping will get him in trouble from an early stage here. You can’t keep making mistakes at your fences and get away with it and I can only see one result for Chantry House and that’s being pulled up. Royal Pagaille 20/1 is the last runner of note in here. I personally think he’s the main British hope. He jumps well and stays forever and will relish the test of stamina. The softer the ground us on the day the better his chance will be and the more it will inconvenience the others he was sixth in last seasons race beaten about fifty lengths and while I see him getting closer this time I don’t think he can bridge the gap that is the gulf in class between him and some of his Irish rivals. In conclusion I think Henry De Bromhead holds all the aces here and will be taking the Gold Cup back to Waterford once again.

Selection: Minella Indo 5/1 (EW)

Danger: A Plus Tard 10/3

The Champion Hunters Chase is the next race on the card and it doesn’t look a particularly deep race this year. Billaway 3/1 has finished runner up the past two years in this race narrowly losing out in a photo finish twelve months ago. Over the last two seasons he’s been improving steadily. He generally benefits from his seasonal reappearance so I wouldn’t worry that he was beaten first time out this season. He was much better last time when he had first time cheekpieces applied just to help sharpen up his jumping and they did just the trick. It was the best round of jumping I’ve seen him put in as he’s noted for making a couple of mistakes every day but if the cheekpieces can have the same effect as last time they may be just about swing the result in his favour this year. As always its a bonus to be guaranteed a top amateur like Patrick Mullins will be in the saddle. Winged Leader 5/1 seems to be in the form of his life at the moment and he beat Billaway convincingly on his seasonal debut. In his Hunter Chase career he has met Billaway on numerous occasions and it was the first time he got the better of him. Now that might mean these two horses are going in different directions one progressing and the other regressing but I genuinely believe he took advantage of an under cooked Billaway that day in Thurles and the form will be reversed for the rest of the season. David Christie trainer of Winged Leader has another possible runner in here too. Vaucelet 16/1 who is a three time winning Hunter Chaser is a seven year old by Authorized so he’s not your typical Hunter Chaser. He’s proven himself very good in this discipline and surely has plenty improvement left in him you would think having had just six lifetime starts on the track. He’s a strong traveller who jumps well. The only concer you might have is whether he would stay well enough to get up the hill in Cheltenham but he deserves his place in the field and looks overpriced. Lord Schnitzel 25/1 is one who really interests me in here at the prices. He has some really good form in the book from his time running under rules for Matthew Smith especially over fences when he finished runner up to the likes of Faugheen and Carefully Selected in Beginners Chases around Ireland and even ran in the Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival a couple of years ago off a mark of 139 so he has the ability to be involved in the finish of a race like this. He’s now stabled with a good point to point stable in Declan Queallys and won a good Hunters Chase around Limerick over Christmas where he eased eleven lengths clear of his closest rival on the day. He has definite eachway claims and I could see him running very well. Of the British David Maxwell will likely be aboard his own Bob And Co 12/1 who was travelling well when getting rid of Sean Bowen at last years Festival and went on to beat Billaway at the Punchestown Festival. One of the biggest concerns for him at the moment is the Paul Nicholls stable form but if he turns up in good heart he has some of the strongest form on offer. That said he had a tough race on his most recent start at Haydock on very deep ground and that’s not the ideal prep for the Festival. Cousin Pascal 12/1 is another for the home team with a chance. He won the Aintree Foxhunters last year at a big price and just the other day beat Bob And Co in Haydock which could have left its mark on him too with the Festival in mind. He had plenty runs in Ireland without getting to a great level. That said he seems to have found his niche Hunter Chasing but I’d be disappointed if he was good enough to win this. Porlock Bay 14/1 beat Billaway in this race last year so would have obvious claims again but I’m sure I read somewhere that they were targeting Aintree this year instead which seems odd. He was beaten at very short odds on his seasonal debut at Bangor last time maybe that had some bearing on their decision but time will tell. Dubai Quest 14/1 has had plenty problems in his career to date but connections seemed to have him thriving at the moment. We have only seen him inside the rails twice in his career to date but I was really taken by his performance in Wetherby when he beat Le Breuil. He jumps and travels well and I’ve no doubts about him getting up the hill. To my mind he will be the best of the British and he represents value. Pont Aven 14/1 is a former Willie Mullins inmate who has settled into life well in the British pointing circles. He won a Hunters Chase on his first attempt at Ludlow. Now the form of that race wouldn’t be anything to write home about but he won in good style despite a bad mistake two out. If he can limit the mistakes and they can hold onto him for a late run he has a place chance in an open race.

Selection: Billaway 3/1

Dangers: Lord Schnitzel 25/1 (EW)     Dubai Quest 14/1 (EW)

The Mares Chase is the penultimate race of the Festival and its another race with an open look to it. Mount Ida 3/1 won the Kim Muir at last years Festival despite being detached early and jumping violently out to her right at times. I have been opposing her all year myself as I didn’t think she would handle the step up in class and her jumping wouldn’t stand up to scrutiny but I must admit she looks a different mare this season. I even had concerns about how she would travel in her races back over two and a half miles as she was outaced on several occasions last year but even that hasnt been a problem thus far. That said she has not raced left handed since last years Festival and rarely in her career infact so it would still be a concern for me if that jumping out to her right resurfaces here. She has the leading form chance on what she’s done this season and if she turns up she will have a leading chance. Elimay 3/1 was runner up in this race last year going down narrowly to her stablemate Colreevy. She has been a slow burner this season and hasn’t been showing the same level of form as she was coming into the race twelve months ago. She got her first win of the season on the board last time. She was racing in first time cheekpieces and a tongue tie when she went off very short odds of 2/13 at Naas against vastly inferior opposition so its hard to gauge the level of form. She is a solid performer and more often than not runs her race but I’d hope that there will be something better than her in here this year. Concertista 10/3 like Elimay also represents the Willie Mullins stable. She was just touched off in last seasons Mares Hurdle and is a previous winner of the Mares Novice in impressive fashion so we know she has the all important previous Festival form. Her chase form isn’t anything to write home about especially her most recent start at Limerick but she has the winning thread. Her jumping technique while low and quick she’s never too far from making a bad mistake and ending up on the floor. While that’s less of a concern over softer British fences get two previous starts have been on testing ground than she will encounter here giving her more time at her fences so a quick Festival pace like you will get here her jumping could be in danger of getting her in trouble. Gin On Lime 12/1 was a prolific winner over fences as a second season novice in Ireland over the Summer and Autumn of 2021 winning four of five starts over fences before rocking up at Cheltenham in November whenshe rather fortuitously beat My Drogo when they both made mistakes two out in what was a match race. I’m sure we all remember the images of Rachel sitting as the mare slithered onto her belly only to get her rolling again to jump the last and canter ro victory. She has been off since and will go to the festival fresh. She’s improving all the time and I wouldn’t rule her out of running a big race. A mare that I always liked and who has shown herself to really good effect the last couple of seasons is Scarlet And Dove 16/1 she’s a strong traveller and jumps really well in the main. She’s a multiple winner over fences including in a Mares Grade 2 company as a Novice. Her form ties in closely with all the main protagonists and she shouldn’t be underestimated. I’d draw a line through her run in the Thyestes last time she simply doesn’t stay that trip and these smaller field mares events suit her much better. To give a mention to one of the British mares The Glancing Queen 10/1 has made a fine start to her career over fences and her finest performance to date came at this track when chasing home L’homme Presse in a Grade 2 last time which we know now is a good level of form. She acquitted herself well on the day and I’m sure she will run with credit while I don’t see her being able to handle the form of the Irish mares. I’m going to predict an upset here and take two at prices who will hopefully run well as long as the ground is the usual festival good to soft. On more testing ground these selections may change.

Selections: Gin And Lime 12/1 (EW) Scarlet And Dove 16/1 (EW)

The Festival finale is the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. This race is often hotly contested with lots of unexposed horses in the mix. The race often throws up future Grade 1 winners who have yet to show there hands and are absolutely chucked in like Gallopin Des Champs was last year. Langer Dan 8/1 heads the betting having finished second last year given what we now know was an impossible task. He pulled well clear of the third and is sure to be popular but he’s got a rating of 140 now and I wouldn’t be in favour of how he has been campaigned missing out the most of a year of his career in order to come back to a handicap. I’m sure connections have their reasons but with more weight to carry this time and plenty more up and coming horses in the entries there’s no reason to believe that there isn’t a future Grade 1 horse lurking in here again. He had a warm up at Taunton when he wasn’t remotely fit I suppose in the hope of more generosity from the handicapper and he may oblige in that regard but at 8/1 I’d be happy to let him run without the burden of my cash. The Irish have had a strong hold on this race for a good number of years now with the likes of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott normally holding multiple entries and dominating the betting as well as the finish of the race. Chemical Energy 10/1 is a four time winner twice in bumpers and again over hurdles. He has an Irish rating of 132 having beaten what is now a 132 rated mare of Joseph O’Briens that day but he was in receipt of 6lbs on that occasion. The form of that race is only moderate and I think he’s incredibly short in the market at his current odds. He’s been off since November and having had just the three runs over hurdles he’s obviously open to more improvement. That said he was well beaten in last seasons Champion Bumper and if there is a Grade 1 horse lurking in here it’s certainly not him. Deploy The Getaway 12/1 came to the racecourse with a big reputation and carries the Cheveley Park silks. Fair to say he’s been a bit disappointing to date taking three runs to break his maiden before finishing a good second last time to Slip Of The Tongue at Punchestown when running too keen in Paul Townends hands and taking the race up a long way from home. The strong pace of a Festival race coupled with a big field should help to settle him and he’s a horse of untapped potential. I think the step up in trip should suit and he could be a lurker. He has an Irish mark of 136 so will definitely get a run and hopefully he shouldn’t be far away. Five O’clock 18/1 is another Willie Mullins inmate with a chance. He’s been off the track two years since running in this race in 2020. He was rated 145 on that occasion when beaten just under five lengths. He’s another unexposed individual who was an impressive Grade 3 Novice winner in his short career and maybe getting a couple of pounds off his rating if he’s lucky he could return with a bang. Dreal Deal 33/1 will be borderline getting in at the top end of the handicap and may need a little help from the handicapper in that regard. If he did run he would have to be respected for a shrewd stable and with the yard often using Kevin Brogan to good effect this season with raids in Britain it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take the ride. Indigo Breeze 16/1 would be my idea of the Gordon Elliott first string in here. He’s only had five lifetime starts and beat Deploy The Getaway in an early season maiden hurdle at Gowran Park. He’s got an Irish rating of 133 so he’s 3lbs well in with that one at least on Irish racing. He’s always looked to me like a horse who would improve massively for a step up in trip. I think this race has been the plan for a long time and he looks well treated to me. Adamantly Chosen 16/1 is another unexposed type for Willie Mullins and is sure to feature prominently in the betting given his profile but for me I think he’s a bit soft. The form of his Punchestown bumper win hasnt worked out too well and he was beaten at 1/4 on his second start over hurdles at Cork and the winner of that hasnt exactly franked the form since either. He won a soft race in Thurles last time as he liked but I’d be disappointed of he was up to winning this. When it comes down to it I don’t think he has the heart of the ability to be a festival winner at least not at this point of his career. Might I 20/1 has always had a tall reputation at Harry Frys and has kept good company so far this season running in behind Constitution Hill and Jonbon on his last two starts. He’s got a rating of 135 which is fair for what he’s done so far but the step up in trip should help bring out more improvement. He handles all kinds of ground and with plenty of potential to improve I think he holds leading claims at least for the home team. Freedom To Dream 66/1 could sneak in here right at the foot of the weights. He has an Irish rating of 131 so with three or four pounds from the British handicapper hopefully he will get a run. He has some very good bumper form in the book behind Appreciate It and his hurdles forming too bad either. He finished second in a Grade 2 at Limerick over Christmas on deep ground before running a very respectable fourth in Grade 1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival. I think a truly run race over two and a half miles will suit him and he definitely will prove in time to be well ahead of this sort of mark and he has been missed by the market.

Selections: Indigo Breeze 16/1 (EW) Deploy The Getaway 12/1 (EW)

Dangers: Freedom To Dream 66/1 (EW) Might I 20/1 (EW)

Well that’s it we have finally come to the end of our preview. Hopefully there’s a few winners in there and decent prices and you’ve found it an interesting and informative read. It looks set to be a great festival and hopefully there won’t be any last minute high profile absentees. There’s some real high profile clashes to look forward to and that’s what we want to see. We all have our connections with the different horses we’ve backed over the years for good and bad reasons but all and all it’s we love the atmosphere excitement and the thrill of the Festival. It is the light that shines in the the distance in the dark of the winter and for me it symbolises the start of Spring, the stretch in the evenings and kick-start what is an exciting run of festivals that lights up all of our lives.

“We made a connection
A full on chemical reaction
Brought by dark divine intervention
Yeah, you are a shining light
A constellation once seen
Over royal David’s city
An epiphany you burn so pretty
Yeah, you are a shining light Yeah, you light up my life
Yeah, you are a shining light
Yeah, you light up my life“

Please like, share, retweet and any comments you may have it would be great to hear them.

“That though the radiance which was once so bright now forever be taken from my sight. Though nothing can bring back the hour of splendor in the grass, glory in the flower. We will grieve not, rather find strenght in what remains behind.”

William Wordsworth

This past year has been testing for us all and something that would have been quite beyond belief just 12 months ago. The Cheltenham Festival isnt just about the creme de la creme of the equine world but the throngs of people that come from all across Britain and Ireland to the hallowed turf of the Cotswolds. We have just one of those ingredients this year. The stands will be empty, the parade ring too. No spine tingling roar echoing around the Gloucestershire countryside heard for miles around. Oh indeed it will be a Festival like no other. A Festival beyond comprehension but we must be grateful we have a festival at all and the show must go on!

On Tuesday the tapes will go up for the start of the festival but an eerie silence will linger around the track. No famous Cheltenham roar but instead the sound of hooves will ring out from the gladiatorial arena like thunder rolling in over Cleeve Hill and that sound will echo through the empty stands to announce the arrival of the storm. A storm that will come across the Irish Sea to plunder the majority of the prize money and the prestige of the festival before retreating just as quick when all is said and done come Friday evening.

The Supreme doesnt look a vintage renewal. Last seasons Champion Bumper runner up Appreciate It 7/4 is rock solid. Hes a perfect 3/3 over hurdles after readily disposing Master McShee in his maiden at Cork before taking the step up to Grade 1 company in his stride at Leopardstown over Christmas. He returned to the scene of the crime at the Dublin Racing Festival and though for some he wasnt as impressive as he was at Christmas I’d argue he was more so. He faced 13 rivals on that occasion, a field the size of which is almost unheard of for a Grade 1 Novice race bar at the Cheltenham Festival. Everything Ireland had to offer turned up and they went 4 and 5 wide to take him on for the lead to get him over racing. His jumping suffered a bit for that and turning in Jack Kennedy came there travelling on Ballyadam and you could be forgiven for thinking he was going to go by but Appreciate It found more and pulled away from the back of the last to win by over 3 lenghts. Ballyadam 7/1 is likely to fill one of the places but hes been well found in the market now and there are some concerns over his jumping. His chance will improve the better the ground is on the day but being honest I personally think he would be more at home in the Ballymore. So who is the eachway value in the race? Should he turn up for me it has to be Thedevilscoachman 20/1 who coincidentally won the second division of the maiden hurdle at Cork that was won by Appreciate It! Hes a big scopey individual who will no doubt be a chaser in time. He jumps and travels so well its impossible not to have your eye drawn to him in a race. On his second start he stepped into Grade 1 company behind Appreciate It at Leopardstown and it all seemed to come too soon in his development but Noel Meade lowered his sights since then and he has won his next two starts in Navan and Punchestown. Hes grown in maturity and confidence from those outings so now is the time to send him back into the deep end to see if he will sink or swim, I’m expecting we have a swimmer on our hands. As for the home team Metier 7/1 has beaten nothing in his career to date and you can never take the form of any race on Sandowns hurdle track literally it is constantly throwing up freak results and Soaring Glory 12/1 is the winner of a poor Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 133 which in Ireland would be the equivalent of about 123. For me he would be lapped in a Supreme.

Selection: Appreciate It 7/4

Danger: Thedevilscoachman20/1(EW)

The Arkle is up next and for me at least Shishkin 10/11 is a rotten price. He was gifted the Supreme last season when he was totally outpaced by a fast pace set by Asterion Forlonge but the same horses antics caused carnage at the second last flight which took several of his main rivals out of the race and he got a beautiful run through runners as they parted like the Red Sea. That same incident ensured that Abacadabras who is as ungenuine as the day is long got to the front miles too soon. All that and he still only struggled across the line by a head. Praise has been heeped on him so far this season for winning a few egg and spoon races but I’m not convinced. For me I last time Energumene 5/2 was simply awesome last time. Now he got an easy enough lead but the time was good and he couldnt have done it more easily. Willie Mullins is a wizard with novices especially 2 milers and I’ve no doubt ground or tactics wont affect Energumene while Shishkin is busy getting outpaced. His biggest threat is likely to come from the only horse to take him on in any meaningful way at Leopardstown last time in the shape of Captain Guinness 20/1. This horse is a high class individual he was still travelling well when being brought down by Elixir D’Ainay at the second last in the Supreme last season and always looked a chaser. He had a little issue early in the season on his first start of the year but hes well and truly over that now. He fell two out last time at Leopardstown but in all honesty he didnt seem to make a mistake just knuckled over at the back of it but up to then he had jumped well and looked to be giving Energumene a race when tipping up. 25s is way too big a price in my book and I can easily see him giving Energumene a proper race.

Selection: Energumene 5/2

Danger: Captain Guinness 20/1 (EW)

The first handicap of the Festival is the Ultima Handicap Chase. Now things are still a bit up in the air for me in this. I had a real strong opinion on the race at this time last year but right now. Alot for me depends on where Escaria Ten 10/1 will go. He has been a long term fancy of mine for the National Hunt Chase and I’d still go that way with Escaria Ten if I had my way he jumps so well and stays all day hes a real National type for the future. I think hes made for the race. But if he turns up here he has to be treated with the utmost respect. That said he will have to carry plenty of weight but I’d still be a backed rather than a layer. Lieutenant Rocco 10/1 gets in here off a mark of 147. Hes a young horse thriving on his racing and who has been running to a really good level over fences. He hasnt many miles on the clock and after running over 2 miles on his chase debut he stepped up to 2 and a half round Cheltenham in December when he was a good 2nd to Fussil Raffles. He was last of three in a Grade 2 Novice Chase around Wincanton in January over the same trip only beaten 7 lenghts. The making of him really was the step up the 3 miles last time when he made no mistake at Ffos Las. I know he will face much tougher opposition here but he will be up front out of trouble and is as tough as they come. He wont shirk a battle and will dig in up the hill when many more will cry enough. Though his recent form may not read too well Discordantly 25/1 would be capable of springing a surprise at big odds. I know him as an electric jumper, you might question that with his jumping letting him down on his last two starts but that came with a change to hold up tactics in big field handicaps. A return to a bit of nicer ground and hopefully front running tactics where he can get a good sight of his fences and use his jumping he would be well capable of getting involved.

Selections: Escaria Ten 10/1 (EW) Lieutenant Rocco 10/1 (EW)

Danger: Discordantly 25/1 (EW)

The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on day one and while again as has been the case in recent years it doesnt look a vintage renewal but it is competitive and poses plenty questions. If you asked me a month ago I’d have been telling you to forgive Epatante 7/2 getting beat at Christmas things didnt really go right on the day and you can always forgive a horse one bad run. But this week I’ve heard a few causes for concern that things werent 100% before that Kemoton run and havent been straight forward since. If she returns to the form of her win last season then she will obviously be a force to be reckoned with but with the Henderson stable form all season really being a cause for concern too I’d be holding fire with her for now. Honeysuckle 3/1 found herself at the top of the market after an emphatic win in the Irish equivalent at the Dublin Racing Festival. She looked better than ever that day she jumped as well as she ever has and travelled in Rachel’s hands the whole way before taking it up towards the end of the back straight. She had the race put to bed there in a matter of strides and she looks to be getting better. Shes still unbeaten and to my detriment I’ve tried to take her on too many times in the past but I’ve learned my lesson and until she gets beat I wont be placing a win bet against her that’s for sure. Goshen 4/1 wouldnt be for me at all I just cant have him. He was disappointing in a couple of runs on the flat before skipping several engagements over hurdles. He finally ran over hurdles at Cheltenham in the International where he was shocking disappointing. Now he did come out and win at Wincanton the other day beating Song For Someone who was on his head from the drop of the flag and struggled his way around for 2nd at a track that really wouldnt have suited him and favours front running speedy types. Basically what I’m saying is you have no way of knowing what level he ran to and I wont be parting with any cash on him at that price or any price. Of those at prices Abacadabras 12/1 would be a play. Hes ran well at two previous Festivals including a 2nd in the Supreme last season when he was left infront way too soon due to circumstances beyond Davy Russell’s control. Hes Grade 1 winner in Novice and Open company and he will be held up to come with a late run to pick up plenty pieces. Hes likely to get a good pace to aim at and when plenty will be crying enough I can see him picking up a place for himself at the very least! Former dual Champion Hurdler Buveur D’air 25/1 shouldn’t be discounted either. Fine you may have expected him to win on his return at Haydock but we know Nicky likes the gently gently approach with his horses especially after a serious injury. He travelled well for a long way and didnt have a very hard time of it on bad ground and was looked after with the future in mind. Hes proven hes done it before on the big stage and weve seen Nicky bring back My Tent Or Yours to place in his old age on a couple of occasions and I wouldnt be surprised if he did similar with Buveur D’air!

Selection: Honeysuckle 3/1

Dangers: Abacadabras 12/1 (EW) Buveur D’air 25/1 (EW)

Race 5 on day one is the Mares Hurdle and Willie Mullins has the favourite in the shape of Concertista 6/5 but that seems short enough for me. She was impressive in the Mares Novice last season but I’m not sure what she beat that day and this race is over further. Now she has done all she can so far this season in Ireland but I’m not sure just how good the form of those races really is. Should the likes of Roksana 4/1 and Dame De Compagnie 9/1 turn up they would pose a serious threat to the Mullins hotpot and I’d be happy to back either of those eachway against the favourite. Roksana has been almost flawless so far this season. She beat Next Destination at Wetherby who has been flawless over fences since then and was a time Grade 1 winning Novice over hurdles a couple of seasons ago so the form is strong. She then went to Ascot where she was beaten just 2 lenghts by the two main protagonists at the head of the Stayers Hurdle market in Paisley Park and Thyme Hill. Since then she returned to Ascot for a Grade 2 Mares Hurdle in January and won easily. Shes a force to be reckoned with. As for Dame De Compagnie she won the Coral Cup in empathic style last season and has been applying her trade over fence so far this season. She won her first start over fence before getting badly hampered and unseated rider after being badly hampered in the Scilly Isles at Sandown last time. I suspect a return to hurdles for this race will be high on her agenda and she wouldnt be without her chance.

Selections: Roksana 4/1 (EW)       DameDeCompagnie 9/1 (EW)

Next up in it’s new position on Day 1 of the Festival is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. At the moment Quilixios is at the top of the market but I cant see him going here as opposed to taking up an engagement in the Triumph. Its difficult to figure out who will actually turn up but 2 I’d have in mind are Teahupoo 14/1 and Riviere D’etel 14/1 both of whom are stabled with Gordon Elliott. Riviere D’etel went off 11/10 to beat Thedevilscoachman at Navan on her most recent start and only went down by just over 3 lenghts. I think that was a savage effort for 4 year old filly on deep ground. She would have a major chance. As for Teahupoo he made a winning Irish debut at Fairyhouse after arriving from France and is well regarded in the Elliott camp. His main market rival on that occasion Youmdor departed at the last when still in with a huge chance. He also bolted up at Fairyhouse yesterday and after that maybe hes more likely to go to the Triumph. He would be interesting in this race if he turned up. Youmdor 14/1 would be far more likely to my mind to lead the Willie Mullins charge for this race than Saint Sam. Like I previously mentioned he was giving Teahupoo a hell of a race and it was still in the balance when he fell at the last on that occasion. He turned out quickly to run behind Quilixios at the Dublin Racing Festival but that wasnt his true running. With Tritonic having won the Adonis at Kempton at the weekend I suspect that the McNeills would be more than happy to keep their two good juveniles apart with Youmdor coming here. At 14/1 that looks a good price to me.

Selections: Riviere D’etel 14/1 (EW) Youmdor 14/1 (EW)

The final race of Day 1 is the National Hunt Chase. Galvin 7/2 is a real wise guy horse for this but he wouldnt be on my list of likely winners that’s for sure. I believe hes a suspect stayer at this trip and despite winning over Cheltenham at the end of the year before being put away for this I felt in the main his jumping was poor and slow. They went a crawl that day which suited him being a speedier type having been 2nd in a competitive handicap over 2 and a half miles at last years Festival. His jumping only came up to scratch when the pace really picked up at the end of the race. He wont get a good pace to help his jumping in a 3 and a half mile chase on day one and there are so many fences to be jumped I think the ground he will give away during the race will prove insurmountable. I’d much rather back his stablemate Escaria Ten 12/1 is an ideal type for this race to my mind. Hes a big scopey staying chaser who will handle all kinds of ground. His jumping is his biggest asset he is simply dynamite over his fences. He started off this season with a 5th place finish behind Monkfish on chase debut before bolting up at Thurles on his next start. Most recently he was seen finishing 2nd to Eklat De Rire in a Grade 3 Novices Chase at Naas who will be well found in the market for what was formally the RSA Chase against Monkfish. To my mind that should have left him spot on for this and the longer trip and the Cheltenham hill look sure to suit him down to the ground. Of the rest I’d love to see Next Destination 11/1 turn up here but Paul Nicholls seems adamant hes going to take on Monkfish in the old RSA. Hes worth noting if he turned up he would have a huge chance and that might be possible now with amateurs no longer being able to ride at the Festival this year being able to have Harry Cobden on his back may well change Nicholls mind. Finally I’ve always liked the chances of Dickie Diver for this race but to the best of my knowledge he is yet to meet the qualifying criteria for this so I doubt he will meet it before Cheltenham now.

Selection: Escaria Ten 12/1 (EW)

As we get to the end of Day 1 lets not become too sullen we have time to squeeze in another quote to remind us…

“Now is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Winston Churchill

Day 2 kicks off with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and Gaillard Du Mesnil 3/1 heads the market again for that man Willie Mullins. Hes not a bet for me at the price. He was well beaten on his first start this season by Holymacapony before going on to win a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas and then followed up at the same venue in Grade 1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival. He looks to me like a horse who would be likely to get outpaced and would be more at home in the Albert Bartlett. For that reason I’m all in on Bob Olinger 4/1 who is 3/4 on the track so far. He won a bumper impressively at Gowran last spring and went back to the scene of the crime for his hurdles debut when it took last seasons Champion Bumper winner to beat him by a small margin. He won hard held next time in Navan at short odds and he was halfway down the back straight before Rachel Blackmore got him pulled up. He stepped into Grade 1 company at Naas in January and won under hands and heels by 6 and a half lenghts. This is a horse of immense ability and a fair degree of class. I think he has an outstanding chance and at 4/1 hes an eachway bet to nothing at the very least. As for a bit of value at a double figure price. I’d like to see Ballyadam 20/1 turn up here. Its unlikely he will but would be worth a flutter if he did. Another that may be suited to this race is Dreal Deal 20/1 who would be ridden to pick up the pieces. While I’d be very surprised if he was good enough to win I do think theres value in his price for place purposes. Hes been on a roll of late winning his last 6 starts in both codes including a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle last time. The best of the British is Bear Ghylls 20/1 who is a perfect 4/4 so far in his career. If he was trained by one of the big stables in Britain or Ireland he would be 5/1 not 20s and I’ll be parting with some cash on him. As for Bravemansgame 9/2 I dont rate him at all. I think hes the most overrated novice in training and is a place lay. I cant see him getting involved. His form doesnt stack up for me and I think he needs to run a minimum of a stone better than what weve seen so far to even be in contention on the run down to the last for a place nevermind actually win.

Selection: Bob Olinger 4/1 (EW)

Dangers: Bear Ghylls 20/1 (EW) Dreal Deal 20/1 (EW)

Next up is the race formerly known as the RSA now the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. Monkfish 4/5 is the right favourite and impossible to oppose. Hes a former Festival winner having won the Albert Bartlett last season and has been flawless so far over fences. He has size and scope and hes shown pace like we didnt know he had when dropping back in trip last time at the Dublin Racing Festival. Hes one of the great certainties of the Festival so we will say no more. As for those with eachway chances in opposition the best time to have a punt on them is now because this race is going to cut up massively with many of towards the top of the market heading somewhere else. Envoi Allen is next in and hes definitely going to the Marsh, Royale Pagaille who is in the same colours as Monkfish could go to the National Hunt Chase or Gold Cup and Latest Exhibitions trainer Paul Nolan has expressed little interest in taking on Monkfish again. The first worth considering is Eklat De Rire 12/1 has made a perfect start to his chasing career having beaten School Boy Hours in chase debut before winning a Grade 3 at Naas in January beating my National Hunt Chase fancy Escaria Ten. He looks sure to give a good account of himself. Pencilfulloflead 25/1 is another with good chase form in the book after beating Thyestes winner Coko Beach in Galway before taking care of Latest Exhibition in a Grade 2 at Punchestown in November. He was narrowly denied at Limerick in Grade 1 company over Christmas before finishing 3rd behind Eklat De Rire at Naas in January. I think hes better than that most recent effort and 25/1 is a great price as he will only shorten in the next couple of weeks. As for the British contenders Next Destination 14/1 has a perfect record over fences but will face much stiffer opposition here and is highly likely to get outpaced. He likes to get in deep to his fences and he wont be able to afford to do that too often in a race like this. He may finish 3rd at best and I’d much rather see him in the National Hunt Chase. Sporting John 16/1 is a horse I’ve always liked but he really has to improve his jumping to be involved. That said the extra trip would definitely help that giving him a bit more time to organise himself at his fences. As for The Big Breakaway 12/1 the less said the better. He doesnt travel in his races and he jumps like Boris Johnson on a space hopper. Enough said.

Selection: Monkfish 4/5

Dangers: Eklat De Rire 12/1 (EW) Pencilfulloflead 25/1 (EW)

The first handicap on Day 2 is the Coral Cup and Column Of Fire 20/1 wouldnt be without a chance in here having had the Martin Pipe at his mercy when a last flight faller at the Festival last season. He raced off a mark if 143 that day. Hes a lightly raced horse and has only raced once since then in a handicap at Navan. He was disappointing on the day but I’d be happy to put that run well out of my mind. He ran that day off an irish mark of 145 so I suspect he might be around 148 in the Britain or there abouts. I get the feeling they have been minding his mark for another assault on the Festival. Grand Roi 9/1 could go here in the colours of Noel and Valarie Moran. He was bought out of Nicky Hendersons over the summer having won three of his four starts for Nicky. Hes had 3 runs for Gordon having started off his career in Ireland at Galway in October where he had a fine introduction for the yard to finish 3rd before going on to win at Limerick over Christmas. His latest outing saw him run 2nd to Bachasson at Naas with Beacon Edge in behind who won at Navan over the weekend. Hes still only 5 and had just seven career starts so he has loads of scope for improvement. I wouldnt be at all surprised if hes been laid out for this since the day he was bough at with an irish rating of 143 surely the British handicapper cant go more than 150 can he? Koshari 16/1 for the Mullins team has had his share of problems in the past but won over this trip at Cork before finishing 6th in Leopardstown over 3 miles. He had an easy time of it that day he was dropped in at the back of the field and made a brutal early mistake that gave him no chance but he schooled round and was never asked for his full effort just cruising through beaten horses. He would be a dark one for sure. Barnaviddaun 20/1 who was trained by Tom Mullins in Ireland earlier this season is now in the care of David Bridgewater who is well capable or readying one for the Festival. He produced The Giant Bolster year after year to run well in the Gold Cup and produced The Conditional to win the Ultima last year. I’ve no doubt he will turn up trained to the second for this on the day and he will be involved at the business have no doubt about that. He was an impressive winner of a handicap on his last start in Ireland and looks a real improve. Hes the best of the home team.

Selections: Grand Roi 9/1 (EW) Column Of Fire 20/1 (EW)

Dangers: Barnaviddaun 20/1 (EW) Koshari 16/1 (EW)

The feature on Day 2 is the Champion Chase and we have another short priced Irish raider on our hands in Chacun Pour Soi 10/11 and to be honest he could and probably should be shorter. At the start of the season I’d have been one of his doubters that’s for sure but my mind has been changed. A combination of others falling by the wayside and him raising his game has brought me around. He was ok at Cork in the Hilly Way and stepped up his firm over Christmas at Leopardstown but I still wasnt convinced. Last time at the Dublin Racing Fetsival he settled alot of my doubts about him. His jumping was great he travelled really well but it was his turn of foot at the back of the last that was most impressive I didnt think he had that. Theres still that feeling in the back of my mind that he hasnt been the strongest to the line in the past now maybe he was just idling but if he has a chink in his armour the hill at Cheltenham will find it out. Altior 7/1 I’d be very worried about him at this trip these days. I think he will get badly outpaced. He certainly wouldnt be a bet not even for a place. I’d love to see him back to win it in style trust me but if he can I think it will just reflect badly on the rest of the field. The best chance for the home team is Nube Negra 9/1 as he will be ridden cold by Harry Skelton and hunt around to pounce late. He will certainly pick up plenty place prize money but he shouldn’t be good enough to be called a Champion Chaser. Politilogue 10/1 won the worst Champion Chase and Tingle Creek ever run in 2020 and he wont be winning a second that’s for sure.

Selection: Chacun Pour Soi 10/11

Danger: Nube Negra 9/1 (EW)

The Cross Country is a difficult race to weight up this year. You have Easysland 7/4 and Tiger Roll 9/1 at the head of the market and they will attract alot of support as they have a bit of a cult following for themselves. Easysland says disappointing the only start hes had this season at Cheltenham in November but the more I think about the more I believe look hes a small horse not made for conceding big weights to his rivals. That day at Cheltenham he may have only finished 4th but he was conceding 21lbs or 22lbs to all his rivals bar Tiger Roll. Come March he will be taking those rivals on again off level weights he hasnt that much ground to make up on them and if you just think back to last season he won in emphatic style like he just jumped in on the run down to the last. Its not hard to see him come back to something like that form again, afterall it is just 1 run. Tiger Roll 9/1 hasnt looked himself since he won his second Grand National and who could blame him if he wasnt the force of old or was a bit fed up of the game. Hes danced every dance. Hes a four time Cheltenham Festival winner to go with his two Nationals hes done it all. I’d love to see him come back to form and win again but can I realistically see it now I cant. I wont be parting with any cash on him but do hope he shows some spark. Other possible runners for the notebook are two more French representatives to join Easysland in what could be a French dominated finish. Look I dont know if they are intended runners or not but Uniketat 12/1 has run up a sequence of 6 on the bounce in France and looks like an emerging force. He recently won a cross country race at Pau which Easysland won last season on his way to Festival glory. The other is Ajas 7/1 who is a stablemate of Easysland. Hes won four of his last six races finishing 2nd on both other occasions in France and has been allocated a rating of 157 for the Aintree Grand National. That sort of rating would put him well in the mix for this and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go very well.

Selection: Easysland 7/4

Dangers: Uniketat 12/1 (EW)          Ajas 7/1 (EW)

It’s strange to be previewing a the Grand Annual to be on a Wednesday when you think it used to bring the curtain down on the Festival on Friday only a couple of years ago. This will take a bit of getting used to and then change of days now also means a change of course. The market is headed by Sky Pirate 7/1 but I’m not having that at all hes a bridle horse who’s after going up plenty in the handicap. I’d be steering clear of him that’s for sure. Chosen Mate 16/1 was an easy winner of the race last season and the way the race is run will definitely suit him. Hes been campaigned as a horse who has had just 1 day in mind this season and I wouldnt bet against another bold run despite the extra weight on his back. Eclair De Beaufeu 25/1 was a brilliant 2nd in the race last year having ran so well in the County in 2019. Cheltenham is obviously a track that suits him and these big field 2 mile Festival handicaps seem tailor made for him. I presume hes another who will go here again and maybe he can go one better this time around.

Selections: Chosen Mate 16/1 (EW) Eclair De Beaufeu 25/1 (EW)

The closing race on Day 2 is the Champion Bumper. There are two standout horses in this race Kilcruit 2/1 and Sir Gerhard 11/4. Kilcruit was really impressive at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival running out a really convincing winner of a Grade 2 Bumper on the bridle. He was arguably the most impressive of all the performances that weekend and we were treated to more than a few good ones that weekend. Tony Mullins talked him up big time before he made his debut for him last spring where he finished 2nd in Clonmel before being snapped up by Willie Mullins. He made his Closutton debut at Navan when running out a very easy winner before following up at Leopardstown. As for how the race unfolded at the Dublin Racing Festival Letbeclearaboutit went a mad gallop infront and somehow managed to keep going to battle back for the 2nd but the race fell apart in a big way. I’ve no doubt Kilcruit was the best horse in the race but I think the margin of victory was exaggerated. As for Sir Gerhard 11/4 there is just something about him hes a point to point winner and a dual bumper winner now. He oozes class and Jamie Codd seems to have supreme confidence in him. He showed a turn of foot at Navan that surprised me I didnt think he had those kinds of gears in his locker. Cheveley Park have won the last two Champion Bumpers and I’m very hopeful that they can make it three with Sir Gerhard. Of those at bigger prices Three Stripe Life 12/1 was an impressive debut winner at Navan for the Gordon Elliott stable in a good time and in the style of a horse with a proper engine. He is the most unexposed of the bunch and at the process hes definitely worth an eachway punt. The previously mentioned Letbeclearaboutit 20/1 of course has form tied in with the big two in the market and if he settled better than he did at Leopardstown last time he would definitely be another with a big eachway chance. Hes shown even when doing most things wrong last time he still has a massive engine and there certainly doesnt seem to be many better bumper horses around than him.

Selection: Sir Gerhard 11/4

Danger: Three Stripe Life 12/1 (EW)

“I like the pause that tea allows.”

Waris Ahluwalia

On that note go get a cup of tea or something because this is only halfway! We still have two more days races to cover!

The curtain raiser on Day 3 is the Marsh Novices Chase and again you just have to behold the class of our top novice chasers. He may not be a bet for most but Envoi Allen 4/5 must simply be enjoyed for what he is! To me hes the closest model to Arkle I’ve ever seen. He has the most perfect confirmation, deep chest and he jumps, travels, battles, hes got it all. The one thing hes missing this season is Davy Russell on his back but that said he has an able deputy in Jack Kennedy. We havnt got to the bottom of him yet and he will come to the festival fresh and well. His nearest rivals in the market currently are Monkfish and Energumene but we all know they wont be turning up. Next in is Shan Blue 10/1 for the Skeltons. Look he hasnt done much wrong so far in his chasing career. His only blip was at Sandown when beaten by Sporting John but that may just have been a combination of doing too much too early and the deep ground. Hes definitely the leading hope in Britain for the race but I would just worry that hard race he had at Sandown might leave its mark. Chantry House 14/1 has been a horse I’ve always liked and thought he would make a chaser but his jumping has been disappointing and I wouldnt trust it to hold up to pressure in a Grade 1 event on what we have seen so far. He might be better placed in a handicap off his current mark. Chatham Street Lad 20/1 brings another dimension to the race for the ever eccentric Mick Winters. He is a winner around Cheltenham over the winter when the raiding party came over from Kanturk and scooped the lot before laughing at the media and rolling in the mud of the hallowed parade ring turf. A mercurial character and the Festival would be lucky to have him grace the winners enclosure again. If the small man is to survive we need to see raids like this by the small owners and the small yards with a proper horse. Hes unexposed at this trip over fences and if his previous run here is anything to go by he should love the place. Hes untested in Grade 1 company but aside from Envoi Allen I dont think theres anything else that you would worry about him taking on. Hes definitely eachway material.

Selection: Envoi Allen 4/5

Danger: ChathamStreetLad 20/1(EW)

The first handicap on Day 3 is the Pertemps and the market is headed by Imperial Alcazar 8/1 and The Bosses Oscar 7/1. Imperial Alcazar won his most recent start at Warwick in good style but to my mind it was a weak race. While the winning margin was probably worth more of a raise than 8lbs hes always appeared to me to be a big old boat and I think even over 3 miles the pace will be too strong for him at the Festival and he will find himself on his head early. That said Fergal O’Brien has had Barney Dwan run well in this in the past so he should at least know the right type for the race. Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 renewals of this race and The Bosses Oscar looks to be the leading challenger from his yard this year. He knows exactly what it takes to win this race and has saddles the first two home on a couple of occasions. His form has been working out really well having finished behind subsequent Grade 1 winner Flooring Porter at Navan. A mark in the 140s would look very attractive and he will be tough to beat. Bushypark 25/1 has been a revelation this winter winning 5 hurdle starts on the bounce. He started his winning spree off a lowly mark of 83 and has risen to 132 now. Last time he won a Pertemps qualifier at Haudock by 8 and a half lenghts. Who knows where his improvement will end and I would t like to discount him until its proven hes reached his ceiling. Spiritofthegames 33/1 deserves a quick mention. He hadnt run over hurdles in a couple of seasons before reverting to a qualifier for this race at Chepstow last week. He finished 2nd of six runners on that occasion running a grand race but if I can say connections didnt want to win the race then that is my belief. I think they were using the race just to get him qualified and have a good experience back over hurdles to get him used to the smaller obstacles again. He has some good Festival form having ran well in the County and twice in the Festival Plate amongst other good efforts at the track. Back on a bit of nice ground he has a decent mark and would have a live chance at a track he loves and knows so well.

Selection: The Bosses Oscar 8/1 (EW)

Dangers: Bushypark 25/1 (EW) Spiritofthegames 33/1 (EW)

A Noel and Valerie Moran and Gordon Elliott handicap eachway treble wouldnt be such a bad bet Riviere D’etel 14s, Grand Roi 9s and The Bosses Oscar 7s could be a valuable docket come 2:15 of so on the Thursday! That’s a 1200/1 treble if my sums are right!

The Ryanair looks like it could be a cracker. Willie Mullins has 3 horses towards the head of the market. Allaho 5/1 heads the market but honestly I cant have him in this race. Hes been a disappointment all season especially over this trip in the John Durkan. He stepped up to 3 miles at Leopardstown over Christmas only to disappoint a second time. Fine he won last time at Thurles but while the form is fine it shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough to win this and hes the wrong favourite. Come the day I cant see Paul Townend being on his back so I would suspect if you fancy him you will get a bigger price on the day. Min 6/1 should be the market leader and I suspect will be the mount of Paul Townend on the day. Hes a multiple Grade 1 winner. You could set your watch by him. Bar an extremely rare blip hes been first 13 times and second 6 times in 23 starts. Most of which were at Grade 1 level! He got a well deserved maiden Festival victory in this race last season. Hes a superstar and anyone would be lucky to own him. Hes still only 10 so hes not over the hill just yet and is as always the most likely horse in the race ro run ro form. If he does hes an eachway bet to nothing as you couldnt knock him out of the frame. Having said all that I think Melon 11/1 looks the one for me. Hes been 2nd at four Festivals now in a Supreme, two Champion Hurdles and the Marsh last season. They have been experimenting with him over 3 miles this season and they also tried to hold him up last time but a return to front running tactics should see him to best effect at a track he loves so much. Now while in the past he has shown all his best form at the Festival with this year being quite different I hope it’s his love of the track that’s being bringing the best out of him and not the electricity of the crowd at your normal Festival. For the home team Imperial Aura 7/1 was an impressive winner of the Novice Handicap at the Festival last season and has been towards the head of the Ryanair market ever since. He was a good winner on seasonal reappearance at Carlisle before following up at Ascot but he fell early on at Kempton since then and I’d have liked to have seen him out again after that blip. The form hes shown up to now is a fair bit below what youd expect to challenge the likes of Min and Melon but he could still have improvement in him and he at least gives the home team some hope of a result albeit hes too short in my mind at his current price.

Selctions: Melon11/1(EW) Min6/1(EW)

The Stayers Hurdle is set to be a cracker with Paisley Park 3/1 looking back to his best after disappointing in the races last season with a heart fibrillation. In the past couple of seasons hes been an almost unstoppable force in the staying division with all ground coming alike to him. He made a very pleasing seasonal reappearance when finishing 2nd behind his main market rival Thyme Hill 7/2 at Newbury. He exacted his revenge for that defeat next time at Ascot when he found plenty trouble and had to concede first run but not even that could stop him finishing infront. I think he will be very hard to beat here and missing the rescheduled Cleeve Hurdle may prove the right choice to allow him come here fresh. If Thyme Hill couldnt beat him at Ascot when he got first run and Paisley Park met trouble due to jockey error then I dont think he will beat him again. For me Paisley Park has him well and truly covered. Last seasons Pertemps has been working out really well and the first two home from that race rock up here with eachway chances. Sire De Berlais 8/1 is a two time festival winner and obviously loves the undulations and hill at Cheltenham. The case is there for him but if hes really a grade 1 horse is open to question and hes short enough to my kind that I’d let him alone at that sort of price. The Storyteller 20/1 was 2nd in that Pertemps last season behind his stablemate and is a former Festival winner too. Hes been in the form of his life so far this season over fences and he is well worth a punt at that sort of price. He will be held up to come late and pick up the pieces and that for me at least makes him a very attractive betting proposition eachway. He could surprise a few that’s for sure. Another to give a brief mention to is Flooring Porter 16/1 for Gavin Cromwell who bolted up in a 3 mile handicap hurdle at Navan beating The Bosses Oscar by double figures before going and running away with a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Now that may have been a flash in the pan but hes the sort of price that you can take a chance on him for a small few quid. If let loose on the front end get could take some pegging back and he wouldnt be the first horse Gavin Cromwell improved beyond recognition in what’s yet still a training career in its relative infancy.

Selection: Paisley Park 3/1

Dangers: The Storyteller 20/1 (EW) Flooring Porter 16/1 (EW)

The Festival Plate is up next and this seasons renewal looks a wide open affair. Its yet another Festival handicap where Gordon Elliott seems to hold the key or at least that’s what the market suggests. Farclas 10/1 heads the market here hes a former Festival winner having won the Triumph a few years ago. He missed all of last season but hes had three starts already this season over fences. On all three starts hes been running well and running up to his mark. Has he anything in hand? I’m not so sure. The Shunter 16/1 for Emmet Mullins is another that will be popular. He won the Greatwood Hurdle here in November but hes prone to mistakes over fences and I dont think the handicapper will take any chances with him. I think I’d be comfortable sidestepping him too. Midnight Shadow 20/1 was 2nd in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here in December although a remote 2nd that day he wouldnt be without his chance here if he turned up having gotten just 1lb of a penalty for that run. He has also had a tune up over hurdles since then so youd hope this may have been the plan for a while. Spiritofthegames 20/1 is another with a chance having ran well in this race the last 2 years finishing 3rd and 5th. Hes on a similar mark and always runs well over course and distance. He ran in a Pertemps Qualifier at Chepstow this week so was he having a pipe opener for this or are they changing tactics and going back over hurdles who knows. He would certainly be a noteworthy runner if he turned up. Top Notch 25/1 is a really interesting runner to my mind. Hes been a runner up at the Festival twice in both the Triumph and the Marsh in the past. He was a Grade 1 winning Novice Chaser and is a multiple Grade 2 winner in Open Company. Hes a 160-162 horse any day of the week and hes been kindly dropped to a mark of 154 by the handicapper. Look he has only had one start so far this season and he was disappointing but that was a Grade 2 and dropping into a handicap off this sort of mark he definitely has potential. Nicky Hendersons stable form may be a bit of a concern but your being asked to take 25s not 5s so I’d be willing to take a chance at that sort of price. Conflated 16/1 is another for Gordon Elliott who would be interesting if he turned up here. Hes never actually run in a handicap over hurdles or fences hes been keeping good company as a novice hurdler last season and a novice chase this season. Last time he was seen finishing 3rd to Monkfish over Christmas and while he also has the option of taking on Envoi Allen or Monkfish in Grade 1s I’d like to see him turn up here hes an unexposed young horse and I’d be expecting a mark of 146-148. If he got that I think he may take some stopping.

Selections: Conflated 16/1 (EW)

Dangers: Top Notch 25/1 (EW) Midnight Shadow 20/1 (EW)

The Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle is the penultimate race on Day 3 and having been in existence just 5 years it’s no surprise that Willie Mullins has dominated the race winning it on all 5 occasions. Something not to be overlooked here is the fact it is only a Grade 2 so you will have some runners carrying penalties and those 3-5lbs could be crucial come the finish. Hook Up 6/1 heads the market and for me at least she is the right favourite. She made a very taking Irish debut at Fairyhouse in November bolting up by an easy 12 lenghts. She went off Evens for her next start in January when she was probably a bit disappointing. She was ridden with more restrain that day which I think it counted against her and her jumping suffered as a result. She made a mistake at the last which exaggerated the margin of defeat a bit. She went to Leopardstown last time to run against the boys where she finished a staying on 4th behind Appreciate It and Ballyadam who of course are heading up the Supreme market which is a definite positive. She looks the one to me. Delvino 50/1 was a long term fancy for me but having been really impressive on hurdles debut at Naas in a race that has thrown up some really nice winners. I cant deny she has been really disappointing since then for whatever reason and has been going backwards if anything. If she bounced back she would be a contender a big price but god only knows what Delvino will turn up. Glens Of Antrim 20/1 may be a maiden over hurdles but that hasnt stopped horses winning this race in the past. She is a mare of huge potential and we are as of yet just scratching the surface of her ability. Hes been learning on the job so far having been in against the boys in maiden hurdles. Shes taken on and performed admirably behind some really good horses so far like finishing 4th to Blue Lord on debut before taking her form to a new level finishing 2nd to Stattler and Mr Incredible on her two starts since. Shes a little pocket rocket and if sharpening up her jumping just a little bit she would be a force to be reckoned with again for that man Willie Mullins. Just one more for the shortlist Telmesomethinggirl 20/1 would be another with an eachway chance. Shes a second season novice which could be an asset here if she can put that experience to good use. Shes a three time winner over hurdles and finished 3rd in a competitive handicap at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival on the back of a layoff. She jumped into the back of another horse at the last which cost here what I felt was a winning chance that day so you can mark up that performance a bit. With improvement highly likely now with race fitness on her side she could well have something to say up the hill.

Selection: Hook Up 6/1 (EW)

Dangers: Glens Of Antrim 20/1 (EW) Telmesomethinggirl 20/1 (EW)

The final race on Day 3 is the Kim Muir Handicap Chase and the market is headed by Time To Get Up 8/1 for Jonjo O’Neill and JP McManus. Hes definitely one of the bets of the Festival in my book if not the bet of the Festival. He has only had 6 career starts and has tons of improvement in him. Hes a born chaser and I see him progressing up the ranks a long ways from where he is now. Hes currently on a mark of 138 and I’m confident he has anything from 16-20lbs in hand. He won with a fair degree of ease at Wincanton last time off a mark of 130 and an 8lb penalty is lenient to say the least. This is only the start for this son of Presenting and the future is bright. Run Wild Fred 8/1 leads the Irish charge for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown who won this race last season with Milan Native. Hes been a slow burner over fences with a tendency to be over keen very much a hindrance in his early starts over fences and he was also prone to plough through one. It has improved though and he did finish 2nd in the Thyestes in Gowran Park last time. That is traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps of the season in Ireland and if the British handicapper doesnt give him too much of a whack for that then hed have an eachway chance if his jumping holds up. Hold The Note 16/1 was 3rd in the Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival last season. He had four runs early in the season before having a bit of a break and a wind op. Hes been coming down the handicap since the Festival last season and his run last weekend in Newbury was a step in the right direction. On the back of that Newbury if he can build on that the wind op seems to have helped and he should have an eachway chance here.

Selection: Time To Get Up 8/1 (EW)

Dangers: Run Wild Fred 8/1 (EW) Hold The Note 16/1 (EW)

“When your memories exceed your dreams, the end is near.”

Andy Stanley

By this point memories of the 2021 Festival will exceed our dreams for it so what was excitement for the Festival becomes increasingly tinged with sorrow for the end is near. The Triumph Hurdle gets things underway on the fourth and final day of the Festival. It’s a race dominated by the Irish and particularly Gordon Elliott. Zanahiyr 5/2 heads the market and rightly so with a record of 3/3 over hurdles so far in his career. He made his debut around Balinrobe of all places in October not exactly known for producing horses of sufficient quality to go off favourite for any race at the Festival let alone a Grade 1. From there he went to Fairyhouse for the Royal Bond meeting where he scooped a Grade 3. He wasn’t even favourite that day when absolutely laughing at Willie Mullins’ Saint Sam by 14L with the minimum of fuss. That was the day we knew we had a proper high class juvenile on our hands. He subsequently went on to claim a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas and has been firming up in the market ever since without having to leave his box. Gordon Elliott also stables the main market rival to Zanahiyr in the shape of Quilixios 6/1 who is another unbeaten Juvenile. He made his hurdle debut in France winning by 12 lenghts before being snapped up by Gordon and Cheveley Park. He made his irish debut in October when bolting up by 13 lenghts before heading to Down Royal and winning again this time by 20. That was the 31st of October and he had a nice break then until we saw him again at Leopardstown at the Dublin Raving Festival where he landed the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle. He seemed to idle that day when he hit the front on what was testing enough ground. With a bit of nicer ground to come at Cheltenham hopefully and a bit more race fitness on his side I could definitely see him throwing down the gauntlet to Zanahiyr. Could you knock him out of the first three? I couldnt. At 6/1 hes an eachway bet to nothing surely. If theres one unknown quantity in the Triumph it must be French Aseel 8/1 for Willie Mullins and the Donnellys. Bought out of Ellmarie Holdens yard after absolutely routing a big field in a maiden are Leopardstown over Christmas by 22 lenghts eased down. It couldnt but have taken your eye out on the day. I’d have liked to have seen him again for obvious reasons before Cheltenham but theres magic in the mystery of his potential too. It gives the Triumph an extra dimension and an unknown like this will be a good talking point on the day and nobody can completely rule him out. There is always the expectation like with every horse that Willie Mullins has the key to them and will find improvement out of somewhere. If he does we will have some race on our hands between the big three Irish contenders. It’s easy say just back the favourite but everything isnt always so straight forward and I’d happily back both French Aseel and Quilixios eachway that one of them might take him. At the very least they have the look of eachway bets to nothing. I know racing isnt always that simple but this time it might be.

Selections: French Aseel 8/1 (EW) Quilixious 6/1 (EW)

The County Hurdle is up next and this race has been dominated in recent seasons by two yards. Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have shared the last six running if this race between them with three wins each. Anything they run has to be respected. Worth noting this year too is Gordon Elliott hasnt the same firepower at his disposal in the Grade 1s so hes likely to have a strong hand to launch at the handicaps. Dan Skelton has one of the leading fancies in the market for this race in the shape of Third Time Lucki 14/1 and because of his record you have to take any runner he sends here seriously. He was 4th in last seasons Champion Bumper and has won three of his five hurdles starts. Hes now up to a rating of 144 and for me at least that would seem a difficult mark for him to win off particularly in a race as hot as the County. Irascible 20/1 wouldnt be without a chance for Henry De Bdomhead having finished in behind Appreciate It on his most recent start but I think connections will favour a tilt at one of the graded races as he always rathers to be represented in those as opposed to a handicap. Champagne Gold 20/1 is another for Henry De Bromhead in this race having finished a good 2nd in a competitive handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. He was running that day off of a mark of 132 with a penalty and the customary VAT the British handicapper will add on he should still be on a mark to be competitive. Ciel De Niege 25/1 was well fancied in this race last season having finished 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle and 3rd in the previous seasons Fred Winter (now Boodles). Hes on a competitive mark and if things go his way it would be now surprise to see him go well for Willie Mullins and JP McManus. Magic Tricks 25/1 is another worth considering. Hes a half brother to the enigmatic Abacadabras and is light on experience but has any amount of potential in him. Good ground would be a big plus for him and I suspect his run behind Appreciate was just to get his third run in to attain a mark. He has an Irish mark of 132 so I suspect he may end up somewhere between 135 and 137. It wouldnt come as a shock to me if he was suited by a big field handicap like this where he can be dropped in and ridden for luck and a turn of foot. I can see him going well. Finally I must touch on Petit Mouchoir 33/1 is a horse that to me at least was a puzzling buy for Noel and Valerie Moran. They have been spending some big money on promising young pointers and other lightly raced individuals in the last twelve months or so but Petit Mouchoir has me puzzled. Hes a horse with all due respect who’s best days are behind him and has been running in Grade 1 hurdles with little possibility of really being competitive. That said in the past the County has been a good hunting ground for experienced Grade 1 hurdlers who have told much mileage on the clock to be competitive in Grade 1 hurdles anymore but have slipped to a lenient handicap mark albeit in the 150s. He has an irish mark of 155 and I cant see the Britisg handicapper giving him too much of a penalty on top of that. Perhaps he may even leave him on his Irish rating and if he does run here he certainly wouldnt be a forlorn hope to my mind.

Selections: Magic Tricks 25/1 (EW) Champagne Gold 20/1 (EW)

Dangers: Ciel De Niege 25/1 (EW) Petit Mouchoir 33/1 (EW)

The Albert Bartlett is traditionally a gruelling affair that throws up plenty big priced winners. It normally pays to steer clear of the top of the market in this one. The market leader is Stattler 7/1 for last seasons winning trainer Willie Mullins. His hurdles from is fine. He was beaten at short odds on his hurdling bow before setting the record straight at Leopardstown over Christmas. He stepped into Grade 1 company at the same venue last time over 2 miles 6 furlongs. That day he tried to make all under Danny Mullins only to get run down in the home straight. I was disappointed with his finishing effort though after looking like he may have stolen the race from the front to even getting caught for 2nd I to only finish 3rd in the end. I genuinely think Willie Mullins has got his Stattler in the wrong race and Gallaird Du Mesnil for that matter. At Leopardstown Stattler looker to me to be the horse that had more of a change of gear who was eventually outstayed my Gallaird De Mesnil and if I was Mullins I’d have them running in the opposite races. Mullins is a master of his trade but I think Stattler could be vulnerable to a more resolute stayer. Farouk D’alene 14/1 has long been a strong fancy of mine for this race. Hes a point winner, dual bumper winner and dual hurdle winner. Hes had only 1 blip in his career to date which was at Navan in November but I’d draw a line through that. That day he raced over an inadequate 2 mile and 4 furlongs where Jack Kennedy went a married mans gallop for reasons I cant imagine. He jumped out to his right that day at the a few or his hurdles that day. Plenty people have said hes not as good left handed or he cant go left handed since then. Even highly respected people in the world of racing media whom I’d have thought would know better. My argument would be he did it early when he had no company making his own running at a slow pace. Once he got company his jumping straightened up hugely and more than that when push came to shove in the home straight when ud have forgiven him for getting tired and jumping a bit right like he did early but getting a lead seemed to focus his mind and he was dead straight over the last three hurdles. I’d have no worries about him going right handed and I expect with a lead and a strong gallop to aim at he will be coming up the hill best at the finish. Hes since won a Grade 2 at Limerick over Christmas and yes I know Limerick is a right handed track and hes still to prove my theory back on a left handed track but he will get that opportunity at Cheltenham and I’ve no doubt he will have no issues. If I was to back something at a wild price if would be Vanillier 50/1 for Gavin Cromwell who finished 2nd in that Limerick Grade 2 behind Farouk D’alene having previously been the winner of the maiden where Stattler went off a 4/7 favourite. Those are two smart pieces of form and in a race that often produces a bug priced winner I certainly wouldnt be surprised to see Vanillier run well. The best of the home team for me is Adrimel 20/1 who is a perfect 3/3 over hurdles. Hes also a point winner and dual bumper winner. The only time in his career so far that he has tasted defeat was in last seasons Champion Bumper and theres certainly no shame in that. The one thing in his career to date he has primarily raced on bad ground I know but it does seem to be a bit of an essential for him. That said maybe the step up to 3 miles could make that less of an issue where his natural stamina will be brought into play anyway by the very nature of the Alvert Bartlett. We wont know for sure until the day but he definitely has an eachway chance of sneaking a place.

Selection: Farouk D’alene 14/1 (EW)

Danger: Vanillier 50/1 (EW)

Finally it’s time to delve into the Gold Cup market but to be honest for the race that’s always been the biggest race of the year to me, I’m not so pumped up for it this year. Al Boum Photo 3/1 is favourite and has won the last two renewals of the race but they could hardly be called vintage renewals. Sure he has capitalised on the day to mistakes of others, horse under performing, injuries or even just the opposite being a relatively poor generation talentwise. Unlike many I was not impressed with him in Tramore this season in his warm up for the Gold Cup. I thought he didnt travel with the same zest as 12 months ago and just seemed a but laboured to me. Visually it wasn’t as impressive as some of what has been said and written would make u believe. I’d certainly be cautious to take it too literally that hes still the horse was or will come back to win a third Gold Cup. As for the second favourite Champ 6/1 I couldnt have him winning a Gold Cup at all. He was handed an RSA last season when Minella Indo 16/1 made a mistake at the last having left Champ for dead turning into the home straight and then proceeded to almost stop to a walk. Champ came with a late swoop in the dying strides and though Minella Indo quickened instantly when Champ arrived alongside him it happened too close to the line for him to respond. I’d also have huge questions about Champs preparation. Nicky complained there was no races to run him in and turned down opportunity after opportunity week after week and eventually settled on running him over two miles at Newbury last weekend. I personally think Champ would be better off in a Champion Chase after last weekend he showed at least he has the ability to run well in a Champion Chase not that I’d hive him a prayer of winning but I’d certainly say hed finish closer in one than he will in the gold Cup. Minella Indo is where my money will go on the day. A thorough stayer who has great course form winning an Albert Bartlett and an unfortunate 2nd in an RSA. He was brilliant at Wexford and again at Navan this season before tipping up at Leopardstown over Christmas and then disappointing at the Dublin Racing Festival. Personally I think this horse needs to be ridden handy, make his own pace and get a good sight at his fences. He need to make the race a proper stamina test and I have no doubt he wont be far away. Royale Pagaille 10/1 is another I couldnt have on my mind for the race. He won a brutal handicap last time around Haydock. It wasnt brilliance that won the day for me it was the lack of any meaningful opposition. I’d be absolutely stunned if he managed to finish anywhere in the first half of the field in really would. Santini 14/1 will have his backers no doubt but I’d encourage all of them keep your money in your pocket hes not worth it he has no interest in winning races and his hes been showing it all season. Sure he was the great hope of the Henderson yard a couple of years ago but we have enough evidence now to say that shop has sailed. Kemboy 14/1 is another I’d quickly discount as his jumping isnt up to it. Weve seen he can be devastating on his day but he hasnt shown that form for a couple of seasons now. He was gifted a very soft lead at the Dublin Racing Festival wilth all his rivals happy to sit well off him even when he made bad errors nobody pressured him. He wont get a soft lead here and I suspect you may know your faith as early as with a circuit to go. Finally A Plus Tard 6/1 is a bit of an unknown at the trip. He disappointed in last seasons Ryanair for whatever reason but this season after starting out over 2 miles in Navan he stepped up to 3 miles at Christmas at Leopardstown in a race that fell apart completely to my mind and I wouldnt have much faith in the form of that race. I’d need to see him do it again. Hes a former Festival winner in the Close Brothers a couple of seasons ago and we know he has a touch of class but is he a Gold Cup winner in waiting over an extended 3 miles and 2 furlongs I’m not so sure he is. But we haven’t that long to wait to find out. In any case Henry De Bromhead may well hold the key to the Gold Cup this year.

Selection: Minella Indo 16/1 (EW)

Danger: A Plus Tard 6/1 (EW)

THE FOXHUNTERS is up next and if anyone says the race title has changed or takes any offence its THE FOXHUNTERS and that’s that. The hunt clubs in Britain and Ireland are a vital part of keeping point to pointing going in Britain and Ireland and that wont be forgotten here. Billaway 100/30 heads the market for this and rightly so. Hes been a slow burner really in Hunter Chases and was a while finding his feet but over the past couple of seasons hes gone from strenght to strength and I’d argue hes still improving. He should be a perfect 3/3 this season only for a bad mistake at the last in Fairyhouse on his seasonal reappearance. Hes beaten all the best of what Irish Hunter Chases have to offer this season and I can see him doing the same to what Britain has to offer at Cheltenham. He was 2nd in last seasons renewal and that experience should stand to him so he can go one better this time around. As for last years Champion It Came To Pass 14/1 he went off 66/1 last year and to be honest that’s what price he should be this year too. We have been told for weeks hes in better form than ever, even better than last year but whenever hes been seen in public hes been bitterly disappointing. It seems past seasons form was just a flash in the pan performance, never to be repeated again. Then again he doesnt need to hes already got his place in history and that cant be taken away from him now. Plenty have been talking up Staker Wallace 11/1 the last few seasons but I dont see it myself personally. I think hes overrated and has failed to fire when fancied on numerous occasions. I think it will all happen too fast for him again at Cheltenham and though he might be  staying on for 5th late on that’s as good as he is. He wont be winning a Foxhunters. As regards the best of the British I’ve always been a huge fan of Hazel Hill 20/1 who was an impressive winner of this race two seasons ago. It was just a shame last season he didnt make it back to defend his crown. Hes 13 now but I wouldnt worry too much about age in this sort of race. He showed plenty zest when making a winning return to the track in January at Ludlow and I can see him running well again. The track plays to his strengths and hes a magnificent jumper. I’d love to see him run well here again for connections and to my mind has a great eachway chance. Shantou Flyer 16/1 has run well in this race a couple of times including finishing 2nd to Hazel Hill. Hes won multiple times around the track too and it really plays to his strengths. Now I would be surprised if he won the race but he should be capable of another good run and pick up some place money in the process.

Selection: Billaway 100/30

Danger: Hazel Hill 20/1 (EW)

The penultimate race of the Festival is the inaugural Grade 2 Mares Chase. As youd expect Willie Mullins yet again dominated the market for this race. It’s important to not as a Grade 2 there will be penalties allotted to different horses in here so they wont be racing off levels and that may make a difference at the business end of the race. Elimay 2/1 heads the market and it’s easy see why. Shes been in great form this season winning two of her three starts and only finding Allaho too good at Thurles. That was a good effort and she sets the standard albeit she will have to give weight away to at least some of her rivals in here. Shes still only 7 so there could be more improvement to come from her. If she does improve she could be very hard to beat. Colreevy 5/1 is second favourite for that man again Willie Mullins but I’d be unconvinced as to her chance in this race. The race was by no means over in Thurles last time when Scarlet And Dove came down at the second last. I’m not saying she wouldnt have won but the margin of victory wouldnt have been very big and I suspect we might be looking at her a bit more cautiously now. In her career she has also shown a tendency to reserve her best form for testing ground which you would think is unlikely come March 20th and for those reasons she doesn’t make my shortlist. Put The Kettle On 8/1 wouldnt be without her chance but I would suspect she will go to the Champion Chase. She would have an eachway chance in here but wouldnt get any support from my pocket despite being the winner of last seasons Arkle. Annie Mc 8/1 has won two Listed Mares Chases this season in Britain but they were nothing compared to the quality of horse she will face here. I personally dont think shes up to this level and the best she can achieve is maybe a 3rd place finish but I would like a bigger price to part with any cash eachway. She’s short enough at 8s. Shattered Love 10/1 is a bet for me in this race. Shes a former Grade 1 winner at the Festival in the Marsh albeit that’s a while ago now but theres nothing to suggest that shes lost any of her ability. She ran with credit last time over a n inadequate 2 miles at Naas behind Elimay where she got outpaced early in the home straight but found her strained at the back of the last and ran on well to secure 2nd position. No she simply may not have the gears for Elimay on good ground but in a race where I’d suggest she sets out at a good gallop and makes it a test of stamina she will bring the hill into play big time and I cant see her knocked out of the frame at the very least. I think she will give Elimay plenty to think about. Just a quick mention for Robin De Carlow 20/1 who took care of Put The Kettle On in a Grade 3 Novices Chase when last seen in October 2019. Shes been off the track a long time but shes a mare with plenty of ability and if she runs u can be sure she will be well tuned up by Willie Mullins to do herself justice and she might just surprise a few.

Selection: Elimay 2/1

Dangers: Shattered Love 10/1 (EW) Robin De Carlow 20/1 (EW)

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle brings the curtain down on what hopefully will be a weird and wonderful festival. As a few in my close circle already know Wide Reciever 10/1 has been a fancy of mine for this race since October time. Look he needs to sharpen up his jumping but hes been learning on the job and improved with every start. Yes he was beaten at short odds in maidens earlier in the season but like I said he has improved and those maidens were hkt races. On only his second hurdles start he finished 3rd in a Grade 3 in Navan before finishing a close second to a Grade 2 winner in Ashdale Bob at the same track a few weeks later. He finally got his head infront in Leopardstown over Christmas and it was long overdue. Last time he finished well behind Appreciate It in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival but that was nothing more than a day out for him to get him more experience jumping at a proper championship pace and keeping him ticking over for this. Grand Paradis 10/1 seems to have found his way to the head of the market now after a scintillating performance midweek at Thurles beating a 140 rated horse by 14 lenghts. I cant imagine that the handicapper will take any chances and give him a mark to get into this race which has a cap of 145. If he wants to run at the Festival is suspect he will be pushed into one of the Grade 1 Novice races. Eskylane 16/1 was 5th in the Champion Bumper last season at the festival and made a successful hurdle debut at Punchestown in October. I had high hopes for him this season but hes been campaigned almost exclusively at 2 miles and I think he is more of a stayer than a speed horse. A step up to 2 and a half miles for this race would really suit I think and with a stiff finish he would have to have a chance. He has an irish mark of 133 so with a few pounds extra on his back and I dont see him getting too much extra he will have a lovely racing weight. It should be noted the ran fairly well on his first start in a handicap over 2 miles and that at least shows hes on a workable mark. N’golo 50/1 could be of interest if he turned up in a handicap off his current mark. Hes has an irish rating of 138 so I’d expect he will get in on a mark of 142 or 143 and that could be very workable for him. Hes a three time hurdle winner and was third in the Grade 1 Royal Bond, only beaten 2 lenghts by Ballyadam who has a good chance in teh Supreme. The step up in trip looks like it will suit him too and from the Willie Mullins yard if he turns up he would not be without a chance and may well go overlooked. Front View 33/1 went off a 4/1 favourite in this race last year off a mark of 139. Only to be beaten less than 10 lenghts and will likely run here on a similar mark with maybe a pound or two grace. His hurdles form last season was very good having been 2nd to Envoi Allen before beating Uthred at Jon Snow in a maiden hurdle at Cork. He went on to be a good 2nd in a Grade 3 novice hurdle. Hes been chasing for most of this season but returned to hurdles last time at the Dublin Racing Festival which may have been to get his eye in for an assault on this race again. If he turns up I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a significant market support on the day. Hes certainly worth keeping an eye on. Column Of Fire 14/1 is another that could turn up here having looked like he had the race at his mercy when falling at the last just 12 months ago. He was off a mark of 143 that day and subsequently ran off 145 in Ireland so hes unlikely to get in here bar some sort of a miracle but who knows. Whatever handicap he does turn up in he will be competitive.

Selection: Wide Reciever 10/1 (EW)

Dangers: Front View 33/1 (EW) Eskylane 16/1 (EW)

Finally we have reached the end of the blog! I hope those of you who stuck with me until the end enjoyed the ride. Hopefully it helped pass away some boring lockdown hours for you all. I hope we have found a few winners or maybe even ruled out a few and it proves to be as profitable as last year with plenty winners and value. I know the blog dragged on a big and the quality of writing probably could be described as follows: “Took a keen hold, raced freely. Jumped well in the main but made 1 or 2 mistakes. Early exertions caught up with him and faded tamely late on but seemed to enjoy the experience. Pulled up. A drop back in trip would suit next time!”

I’ll leave you now on a positive note with another quote. Something to think about as we wish to be in Cheltenham this year but circumstances mean that isnt possible but we will be back in the future you can be sure of that!

“Ah, but a mans reach should exceed his grasp. Or what’s a heaven for?”

Robert Browning

Well my friends, it’s been a long time coming but finally I’m back with another blog! I hope lockdown and the year since March has been kind to you all and that is some capacity I can help shorten the Winter with my ramblings. I’ve been trying to get motivated for a while now and I’ve finally had to bite the bullet and get stuck in! What better way to get back in the swing of things than a quality card at headquarters! The white flag is raised and were off…

The first race on the card is a Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs. This is pretty simple so I wont complicate it. As far as I can see the handicapper must have been high or drunk or both or even just playing favourites when he decided to gift INDUNO 3/1 a mark of 115. This horse is a bumper and hurdle winner already and has come across a couple of horses now rated in the 130s in his short career. It’s my opinion that if hes not capable of exploiting this lowly mark especially with Fergus Gillards 6lbs claim on his back then David Pipe may as well give up training now. This horse is one of the biggest certainties of the year off this sort of mark and 3/1 surely cant last long. If 3s is too short for you or you just missed the price and want to back something eachway to chase him home then TANGO BOY 7/1 (EW) is the horse for you. Hes a really likeable individual who has been improving with every start. A previous bumper winner with 3 nice hurdle runs and another summer under his belt I expect this son of Flemensfirth to run a big race. It’s just a shame hes bumping into such a well handicapped horse in the shape of INDUNO!

Selection: INDUNO 3/1 FAV

Danger: TANGO BOY 7/1 (EW)

The second race on the card is a 2 mile Handicap Chase and the selection here again comes from the top of the market but MAGIC SAINT 11/4 comes from a yard churning out plenty winners at the moment and while hes running here off a mark of 152 top conditional Bryan Carver takes off a valuable 5lbs which brings him back down to his last winning mark of 147. He also drops back in trip from 2 and a half miles for the first time since his last victory which may well be a tip in itself. His 2 wins since arriving in the UK from France have come over the minimum trip and with a run under his belt already this season he shouldn’t be lacking for fitness. Everything is pointing towards a big run. Again if it’s an eachway bet your looking for BALLYWOOD 13/2 (EW) will give you a good run for your money. Travelled really well over course and distance last time before fading on the run in to finish 6th. He should have come on plenty for that run and with the handicapper dropping him 2lbs on the back of that he wont be far away.

Selection: MAGIC SAINT 11/4 FAV

Danger: BALLYWOOD 13/2 (EW)

Next up is a 2 mile 4 furlong Novices Chase and again it looks like a case of keeping things simple. It is essentially a match race and the market frames it as such. PROTEKTORAT 5/4 is the one for me here. A smart novice hurdler last season he always looked a horse with huge potential. He ran in some top races last season be it Listed or Grade 2 Novice events up to finishing a respectable 10th in the Coral Cup. Hes a really strong traveller and a real natural athlete. He certainly has the potential to make his presence felt in plenty of the big novice chases this season and I can see him being close to the best of what Britain has to offer over the intermediate trip. Friday is just the next step on what is a very exciting season ahead for connections and I would be very disappointed if he couldnt kick Southfield Stone aside with some ease here!

Selection: PROTEKTORAT 5/4 FAV

Next up will is the Cross Country which may well be the feature race for many on the day with Easysland and Tiger Roll locking horses again. It’s not really a betting race in many respects and Easysland beat Tiger Roll fairly comfortably to say the least back in March off level weights and he gets 4lbs of Tiger Roll here. That said Tiger Roll has the advantage of a run under his belt so that might level the playing field somewhat. The better the ground on the day the closer Tiger Roll could get to Easysland but can I see him beating him maybe. That’s exactly what your reading this for I know fence sitting! Honestly I think this will be a close run thing I dont think anyone will run away with it. The way Easysland jumps it could be a case he makes a mistake and if you wanted a bet and can get some of the 3/1 about Tiger Roll I wouldnt put anyone off taking that and have a go at the price for small stakes of course with race fitness on his side and provided the ground stays on the good side of soft! But in all honesty you have a horse at the end of his career taking on one who is only getting started and this time I’ll have to go with youth and potential with EASYSLAND 8/11! Yes that’s right people looks like I’ve tipped another favourite!

Selection: EASYSLAND 8/11 FAV

The penultimate race on the card is the Ballymore Novice Hurdle a trial for the real deal in March over 2 miles 5 furlongs. Your going to kill me for this but I’m getting my excuses in early here look I tipped this one last time at 9/1 for anyone who cares to follow my twitter tips so I’ve an excuse for going in again on yet another favourite in the shape of DOES HE KNOW 11/8! Kim Baileys charge is a second season novice. He had 2 runs last season finishing second twice but Bailey saw the potential in this son of Alkaased and put him away and minded him. So far this season hes repaid Bailey in spades winning his first 2 starts including over course and distance. Despite having to give 3lbs to his rivals he is impossible to oppose. He was still green last time in the run but the further he went the better he got and he was never stronger than from the last to the line. That race should have brought him on again and if that is the case I cant see anything in this field to beat him. So yes it’s another favourite but just throw them all together if you must and have a big money accumulator on! You wont regret it!

Selection: DOES HE KNOW 11/8

The final race of the day is a 2 mile handicap hurdle and I know this will come as a shock but I’m not actually going to tip the favourite in this one! ONE TRUE KING 7/1 (EW) gets the vote here on the back of a solid 2nd over course and distance last time behind Tegerek who will be taking up an engagement in the Greatwood on Sunday. Take Tegerek out of the race that day and One True King would have won 7 and a half lenghts. Obviously he just bumped into one on the day. The 4th Wild Max has also come out and won since which gives the form a solid look to it. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 7/1 is long gone by the time this one goes to post. With any luck he wont bump into another incredibly well handicapped horse in here today. He got 2lbs from the handicapper for that 2nd last time and that seems more than fair so fingers crossed he can get the job done. If theres one in here capable of running a big race at a price HAZZAAR 14/1 (EW) could be it! This is his first run for the Tom Lacey yard since leaving Venetia Williams. That said Tom Lacey has experience of this horse before from his bumper days and trained him to win a bumper on debut so I’ll be interested to see what Lacey can do with him now over hurdles. The booking of Richard Johnson is also a positive. At the prices he could well be worth a few quid eachway.

Selection: ONE TRUE KING 7/1 (EW)

Danger: HAZZAAR 14/1 (EW)

Well that’s it for the first blog of the 2020/2021 season. Hope it was somewhat insightful if not mildly interesting. Bare with me I’m just getting back into the swing of things I’m sure the quality of writing should improve in the weeks and months ahead. Heres to a profitable first day back on the blog and good luck with your bets!

Well I’ve been threatening one of these for a while during this lockdown but have been struggling to find the motivation to sit down and put it all together. I’ve finally given in to temptation and with no other horse racing to punt on or delve into looking for angles and value then this should be good for the soul or at least my soul!

We were treated to a hell of a festival in 2020 and we can look forward to the same in 2021 I’m sure. We seemingly had a serious group of Novice Hurdlers this season and we all hope they get to next seasons festival in one piece so we can enjoy a similar competitive and enjoyable festival next year if not even better with those novices graduating to Open company over hurdles or improving into exciting novice chasers. Rather than picking out the big races to start with I’m going to go through the Festival race by race day by day putting horses up as they may appear during the week next year so bare with me a certainty for the 2021 Gold Cup will likely be the last tip of the blog! So without delaying any longer let’s get stuck in shall we…

A quick look at the Supreme Novices first of all and I havnt lost any faith in APPRECIATE IT 16/1, infact the Champion Bumper just proved even more to me that he could be something special. Now plenty horses will come out of the woodwork dont get me wrong but he was up close to the pace the whole way in the Champion Bumper when the likes of Ferny Hollow, Eskylane and Third Time Lucki who finished 1st, 4th and 5th were in the last 4 or 5 for most of the race. Anything that raced in and around Appreciate It were dying a death from before the home bend and that speaks volumes for me. Out of all the four I mentioned there I’d take Appreciate It every time no question about it. Hes the type you can see dominating a Supreme and quickening off the home bend like so many Mullins horses in the past. Now hes obviously well found in the market like youd expect but hes still a big enough price to have a bit of a play on him even now. Just another of note that shouldn’t be forgotten about at a big price is CAPTAIN KANGAROO 50/1 who didnt run at Cheltenham and had t even made his debut until the very last race of the irish jumps season in Clonmel. This horse at 1 point was Champion Bumper favourite early in the season which shows what high regard he was perceived to have been held in at home. Now while you might think a Clonmel bumper at that time.of year couldnt have been much of a race but this was a proper race full of strength and depth with a handful of well touted horses in the lineup so dont dismiss the form too quickly. He was held up well off the pace and came there travelling in the straight to cruise up and quicken clear with consummate ease. While people might think 16/1 about Appreciate It is short enough 11 months out from the festival I cant see why you couldnt have a go at 50s on Captain Kangaroo! Another I had almost forgotten about and I’d gone a long way in the blog without mentioning so I had to backtrack quite a bit is UTHRED 40/1 who was a winner on bumper debut 12 months ago at Fairyhouse before being bought by Gigginstown. He then made his hurdle debut at Cork where he finished 2nd to Front View with Jon Snow back in 3rd. They proved to be two fairly decent novices but presumably deciding he maybe needed more time to develop he was sent back to bumpers. That proved somewhat of a masterstroke as he went and bolted up in a Listed event at Navan that has been won by some very smart horses in the past like Envoi Allen and Samcro to name just two very recent and very decent animals! Hes definitely one to keep onside next season!

Selections: Appreciate It 16/1 ,

Uthred 40/1

Flyer: Captain Kangaroo 50/1

Next on the agenda is the Arkle and there is a horse I’ve had on my mind from this from before Cheltenham when him get beat at Punchestown on January 12th by Andy Dufresne and that horse is CAPTAIN GUINNESS 20/1 who was brought down 2 out in the Supreme when still hard on the bridle. Plenty people will disagree with me here but for me he was travelling far better than Shiskin at the time and had been badly inconvenienced at 3 out also. For me Shiskin got outpaced at the top of the hill and I’d worry about that happening with him again. As for Captain Guinness he went to Cheltenham really inexperienced with only 2 runs under his belt. Hes a big scopey individual with a huge engine and the way he jumped hurdles I believe hes going to be dynamite over fences. He may not only be your 2021 Arkle winner but the 2022 Champion Chaser in waiting and with Henry De Bromhead doing the training and Rachel Blackmore in the saddle I wouldnt place my faith anywhere else. I wouldnt be surprised if come day 1 next March you will be lucky to get 2/1 nevermind 20/1! Maybe that’s a bit excessive but we dont do things in half measures here… Just to throw in an alternative I’d go for County Hurdle winner SAINT ROI 33/1. He came to the track in Clonmel with a big reputation and left his supporters at short odds down with a wallop but he won a Tramore maiden after that in good style. Now I dont think anyone thought they were looking at a Cheltenham Festival winner that day in Tramore but he fairly bolted up in one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the season despite being very inexperienced. Now he will have to step up to Grade 1 level but fences would give him the chance to find his and mature a bit and I think that is the right option for him.

Selection: Captain Guinness 20/1

Flyer: Saint Roi 33/1

I wont dwell too long on the Champion Hurdle as I dont have a major opinion on the race and think it’s a bit of a minefield what I will say is I think EPATANTE 4/1 is the right favourite. She was a very impressive winner of this years renewal and was value for much more than the winning margin. She showed a lethal turn of foot after the last to put the race to bed. Would I back her at 4/1 this far out maybe would I recommend it to other no I certainly wouldn’t. What I do know is I think JP McManus is a certainty to win the 2021 renewal. If there was a firm willing to offer a price on him to be winning owner for the Champion Hurdle next year then I’d snap that up. If you wanted to take a flyer at a price plenty people have tipped up Saint Roi 20/1 but I wont be. I’d rather take a chance on something like ELIXIR D’AINAY 33/1 who was going well when taken out by Asterion Forlonge in the Supreme and while he may be a likely County Hurdle horse on Friday than a Champion Hurdler he could just be 1 that improves plenty. Even SPORTING JOHN 66/1 who clearly didnt run his race in the Ballymore but had been so impressive before that and has been completely disregarded by the market.

Selction: Epatante 4/1

Flyers: Elixir D’Ainay 33/1 ,

Sporting John 66/1

As for the Mares Hurdle I think HONEYSUCKLE 4/1 is a certainty. Think she will stick to hurdles for the time being at least. I can see Benie Des Dieux using the experience she already has over fences and going for the Mares Chase. Dont think they will fancy a rematch when she would have little competition in the Mares Chase division. The past seasons mares novice was a piss poor renewal and theres nothing worth considering coming out of there.

Selection: Honeysuckle 4/1

The National Hunt Chase is another race I wont dwell on for too long. My main selection at this stage is DICKIE DIVER 33/1 who missed all the 2019/2020 season but was a really decent staying novice hurdler and a race like this would be really up his street. He won his maiden point at a track that is in my opinion the most stamina sapping course anywhere behind the rails or in point to points in Britain or Ireland. Carrying the JP McManus colours it wouldnt be beyond the realms that Derek O’Connor could get the leg up and if that was the case youd expect he will be no 33/1 shot. Others of note are the long absent NEXT DESTINATION 25/1 who like Rathvinden a few seasons back has had a long absence now having missed the past 2 seasons after running into the places in an Ballymore/Neptune in his novice hurdle season. This is a horse with plenty stamina in his pedigree and after a long absence like hes had steering clear of a Grade 1 RSA for a race like this could be right up his street. Again you’d suspect if he turned up Patrick Mullins would ride which would also make him considerably shorter in the market. Let’s try and get a clean sweep of the top amateur jockey bookings and say the Gordon Elliott horse for the 2021 renewal will be ESCARIA TEN who would relish a real test of stamina and could well be ridden by Jamie Codd! Nevermind getting the winner if all those 3 jockeys turn up on those respective horses it would be some going… just call me Mystic Tips!

Selection: Dickie Diver 33/1

Flyers: Next Destination 25/1 ,

Escaria Ten 33/1

Here I thought this would be a quick enough blog and me trying to be brief but in typical fashion I’ve too much to say on these topics even 11 months out and this could well be the longest blog I’ve done to date…

Day 2 kicks off with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and BALLYADAM 20/1 makes the most appeal to me. While he made his racecourse debut as a short priced favourite at Navan where he was turned over plenty didnt go his way that day the best is still to come. Hes a most gorgeous individual and while I’m only going on limited visual impression and murmurs sometimes you just have to take it that the connections know what they have. When you have a horse that looks as good as he does if he has half the ability to match you have a serious horse on your hands! QUEENS BROOK 33/1 is another I’d have on my mind for this race even though she hasnt been priced up for the race with many I presume expecting she will go to the Dawn Run instead and take on the mares. She a big unit and I’d worry about her over 2 miles at a good gallop that she might not be able to organise herself well enough. Gordon has been known to run a mare here rather than in the Dawn Run over the years too so that would be a positive that if it’s right for he she could well come here. I thought she may well turn out to be the best horse to come out of the Champion Bumper and I’ll tell you why. She was fast tracked into the race after making her bumper debut just 3 weeks earlier at Gorwan Park on bad ground so who’s to say she wasnt still feeling some of the effects from that race. She raced primarily 6 or 7 wide the whole way which wouldnt to my mind have been an advantage having sacrificed huge amounts of ground. She travelled into the race really strongly and finished a very good 3rd on the day. With some more experience under her belt and time to fill into that big frame of hers she really could be value in here.

Selections: Queens Brook 33/1 ,

Ballyadam 20/1

The RSA is a race jam packed with potential. When you think back at the blockbuster that was the Albert Bartlett if you get all the front 3 going head to head again it really could be something special to savour. I love Latest Exhibition but I cant really see him turning around the form with MONKFISH 10/1 who looks every inch a chaser. A huge horse who won the Albert Bartlett having been very green, making a bad mistake at the last and still battled back to be going away at the line. Not many horses could have done that late on and after making vitually all his own running too. If there was one at a wild price it could be SAMS PROFILE 50/1 who after a year out will be far from the thoughts of plenty people and while he might not win but if you wanted a speculative punt on a horse that could surprise plenty and make the frame he could well be the one.

Selection: Monkfish 10/1

Flyer: Sam’s Profile 50/1

The Champion Chase is the next on the list of races for day 2 and it’s another one of those races it’s hard to gave an opinion on but as always I’m going to give one anyway! There are 2 horses that stand out for me, DEFI DU SEUIL 14/1 is an overreaction to one bad run. He had been sensational all through the season up until the Champion Chase on a week that the Hobbs stables runners in generally ran way below par. I’d be willing to forgive him that run and at 14s hes definitely worth a few quid. The other horse I think may be some value is A PLUS TARD 20/1 and while connections may feel he has some unfinished business in the Ryanair the easier option very much looks to be the Champion Chase. With Altior turning 11 and Chacun Pour Soi being prone to injury there is no reason to think either of them will be anywhere near their best of even make it to the festival next March. If I was connections of A Plus Tard I’d strongly consider going down the Champion Chase route.

Selections: Defi Du Seuil 14/1 ,

A Plus Tard 20/1

Next up the inaugural running of the Mares Chase and youd have to think Willie Mullins will have the key to this as he has with almost every other mares race that the festival has ever had to date. Like I mentioned earlier I dont think BENIE DES DIEUX 16/1 will go back to take on Honeysuckle again and being a mare with chasing experience already in the bag it wouldnt be much of a surprise if she had she swansong here and took the race for the first time for Willie Mullins. 16s is far too big and I’d be willing to back her now as if you got the nod that she was heading here she would be a very short priced favourite!

Selection: Benie Des Dieux 16/1

The last race of day 2 to discuss is the Cross Country. EASYLAND 2/1 rightly is favourite but you cant advise an antepost bet on a 2/1 shot 11 months out so who knows what will happen between now and next March but YANWORTH 33/1 would make limited appeal.

Flyer: Yanworth 33/1

It’s taken far longer than I had anticipated but finally we are onto day 3! Yes still only day 3 but bare with me if everything falls into place with this blog, if I may quote JP McManus as he left The Cotswolds 12 months before Mister Donovan became his first Cheltenham winner “By this time next year we will be millionaires!” At least I think it was JP…

Race 1 on day 3 is The Marsh Novices Chase and it doesnt take an expert to put up ENVOI ALLEN 5/1 here but the price is generous and while I see him like many as a Gold Cup horse of the future I think he will go here instead of the RSA. I would much rather pack him at 5/1 for this than Shiskin at 4/1 for an Arkle that’s for sure. Of those at bigger prices EASYWORK 25/1 would appeal but I dont think he can beat Envoi Allen. Having said that he put up a serious performance in the Ballymore being so keen and still finishing his race out so well to finish 2nd. Will they be keen to take on Envoi Allen again who knows… A wild one that people may have forgotten after a lack luster season in Open company over hurdles is KLASSICAL DREAM 25/1. Hes a real athletic individual and while he can be a bit temperamental hes a horse with plenty of ability and it wouldnt surprise me if he could recapture some of his old spark over a trip further than 2 miles over fences!

Selection: Envoi Allen 5/1

Flyers: Easywork 25/1 ,

Klassical Dream 25/1

The Ryanair is the next race to look at and on Cheltenham form after being 2nd in a Supreme, 2 Champion Hurdles and a Marsh this is surely the year for MELON 20/1 to gain a first Cheltenham victory at a track that he relishes. Be it the undulations or the atmosphere something sparks him to life here and who’s to say he wont go one better next year! If we could add another one to the antepost portfolio that is growing ever longer by the second but IMPERIAL AURA 25/1 who was an impressive winner of the Novice Handicap Chase this year. He looked like a proper graded horse in a handicap that day and is still a young inexperienced horse with no end of experience left in him. That 25/1 could look a huge price come the day.

Selections: Melon 20/1 ,

Imperial Aura 25/1

In the Stayers Hurdle PAISLEY PARK 7/1 is a big price if you can forgive him his last run. He looked an unstoppable force before then and it would be foolish to rule him out now at that kind of price if he comes back next season and wins on his seasonal debut he will undoubtedly shorten significantly. THYME HILL 16/1 represents the novice for from this year and youd have to think that from what looked a really good crop of young horses any of those good novice youd like to think would make their presence felt and at least give Paisley Park a race. Again like in the Champion Hurdle market I’d give SPORTING JOHN 40/1 a chance if he turned up here but I cant really see Philip Hobbs keeping 2 good young novices for this race and hes always said he thought Thyme Hill was a Stayers Hurdle horse so one would presume he would be the likelier if the 2 to go here.

Selection: Paisley Park 7/1

Flyers: Thyme Hill 16/1 ,

Sporting John 40/1

In the Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle GYPSY ISLAND 10/1 was a prolific bumper mare before she unfortunately missed all of last season with injury but if she came back to her best she would certainly take some stopping in this race and rightly was installed as the market leader. At bigger prices there are 2 that interest me and they are in the same colours and hail from the same yard! This will come as a surprise to many but the yard I’m talking about is that of Dermot McLoughlin. The first is DELVINO 25/1 who made her bumper debut in a very competitive bumper in Navan when she finished infront of Ballymore fancy Ballyadam l. That day she cruised around and went for home early in the straight which was far too soon in deep ground and having looked like she had the race down up she got collared late on. She made no mistake on her second start and will make her presence felt over hurdle for sure. Black type can only be a formality for this very talented mare! The other is SANTA ROSSA 50/1 who was a prolific mare herself in bumpers in 2018/2019. She had 1 start over hurdles in a competitive maiden at Fairyhouse against the geldings late in the season when she shaped really well. She finished a close 3rd that day despite conceding race fitness and valuable jumping experience to her rivals. At this time last year I would have fancied her to play a big part in the race at the 2020 Festival so it would be foolish to forget about her now.

Selection: Gypsy Island 10/1

Flyers: Delvino 25/1 ,

Santa Rossa 50/1

Onto the final day of the festival and if this blog is anything to go by 4 days is plenty there is no need to make it a 5 day festival as it’s taken me long enough to get this far! While I like to chance my arm predicting plenty things the Triumh Hurdle 2021 will not be one of them at least not at this early stage.

Quickly onto the Albert Barlett then and there is value to be had here if you can find yourself a runner. It’s a raise known for throwing up a big priced winner most years on the day nevermind this far out but we will have a go at it that’s for sure! ESKYLANE 33/1 ran a blinder in the Champion Bumper this season to finish 5th and the addition of hurdles and a step up in trip should suit this son of Flemensfirth down to the ground. Hes in the right place when it comes to being targeted at the Cheltenham Festival so he would be as good a starting point as any for this race. The other horse I’d focus on for this is FAROUK D’ALENE 50/1 who was a dual bumper winner in Ireland this past season and hes another a step up in trip looks sure to suit. He looked in trouble last time in Naas on his second start when grinding out the win late in the day after a prolonged battle up the straight. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do over obstacles.

Selections: Eskylane 33/1 ,

Farouk D’Alene 50/1

We finally made it to the Gold Cup and this will be brief. There is only 1 bet you could possibly have for the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup and it is my NAP of the entire week even at this stage. If you only have 1 Antepost bet for Cheltenham 2021 while your in lockdown it simply must be MINELLA INDO 14/1. Minella Indo is a real classy individual. Already a Cheltenham Festival winner having won the 2019 Albert Bartlett he should have made it 2/2 at the festival when idling badly in the RSA after the last. He got passed within 4 or 5 strides of the line leaving no time for him to get his head back infront but there is no doubt in my mind that he was by far the best horse in that race. Had he had company for longer that day or even the rail to run against he would have been a very convincing winner. I’d see him reversing form with Champ with ease come the Gold Cup and with youth on his side he may well be able to overcome the reigning champ Al Boum Photo too.

Selection: Minella Indo 14/1 (NAP)

FESTIVAL ANTEPOST LUCKY 31

Minella Indo 14/1 (Gold Cup)

Envoi Allen 5/1 (Marsh)

Captain Guiness 20/1 (Arkle)

Honeysuckle 4/1 (Mares)

Monkfish 10/1 (RSA)

Our Antepost Lucky 31 with a €1 stake (total €31) pays a massive €177,407!!!

Well we have gotten through every race currently priced up so now a few handicappers worth touching on.

Festival Plate: Galvin

Novice Handicap Chase: Thatsy (provided he goes over fences)

Pertemps: Thatsy (if he stays hurdling)

Coral Cup: Chantry House

Ultima: At The Acorn (before a tilt at the Aintree Grand National)

County Hurdle: Elixir D’Ainay

Wherever he goes Thatsy will be competitive in any handicap be it over hurdles or fences from 2m4f to 3miles.

Well I hope that if nothing else this passed the time for some of you during this lockdown. If you never place an antepost bet and you dont take a word of this forward to next season unless they all go on the steer clear list because I tipped them. Whatever the case may be I hope people forgot about lockdown for a little while and got back to looking forward to all the great racing we have coming our way in 2020 and into 2021!

Stay safe my friends! Until next time whenever that may be, go easy!

“May the road rise to meet you,

May the wind be always at your back,

May the sun shine soft upon your face,

May the rain fall soft upon your fields,

And until we meet again,

May God hold you in the palm of his hand.”